Modeling species invasions in Ecopath with Ecosim: An evaluation using Laurentian Great Lakes models

Langseth, Brian J.; Rogers, Mark W.; Zhang, Hongyan

doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2012.08.015

Cited by 44 publications

(32 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…The EwE model is a popular choice given its moderate level of complexity, fast run time, and capacity to be linked to a generalized economic model of Lake Erie (J. Apriesnig and coworkers, Colorado State University, unpublished data). Details about Ecopath with Ecosim can be found in the user's manual as well as in many previous studies (e.g., Christensen and Walters 2004;Langseth et al 2012;Kao et al 2014). We also briefly describe the model in Supplement A.…”

Section: Ecopath With Ecosimmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, when combined with other stressors (e.g., excess nutrient loading), the impacts of nonindigenous species can lead to complex, profound, and long-term changes (or regime shifts) to the recipient ecosystems (Madenjian et al 2013). To assess the potential ecosystem impacts of these synergistic and complex interactions, ecosystem models have increasingly been adopted to predict food web responses to the introduction of nonindigenous species (Pine et al 2007;Langseth et al 2012;Pinnegar et al 2014).…”

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confidence: 99%

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Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web

et al. 2015

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Nonindigenous bigheaded carps (Bighead Carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and Silver Carp H. molitrix; hereafter, “Asian carps” [AC]) threaten to invade and disrupt food webs and fisheries in the Laurentian Great Lakes through their high consumption of plankton. To quantify the potential effects of AC on the food web in Lake Erie, we developed an Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) food web model and simulated four AC diet composition scenarios (high, low, and no detritus and low detritus with Walleye Sander vitreus and Yellow Perch Perca flavescens larvae) and two nutrient load scenarios (the 1999 baseline load and 2× the baseline [HP]). We quantified the uncertainty of the potential AC effects by coupling the EwE model with estimates of parameter uncertainty in AC production, consumption, and predator diets obtained using structured expert judgment. Our model projected mean ± SD AC equilibrium biomass ranging from 52 ± 34 to 104 ± 75 kg/ha under the different scenarios. Relative to baseline simulations without AC, AC invasion under all detrital diet scenarios decreased the biomass of most fish and zooplankton groups. The effects of AC in the HP scenario were similar to those in the detrital diet scenarios except that the biomasses of most Walleye and Yellow Perch groups were greater under HP because these fishes were buffered from competition with AC by increased productivity at lower trophic levels. Asian carp predation on Walleye and Yellow Perch larvae caused biomass declines among all Walleye and Yellow Perch groups. Large food web impacts of AC occurred in only 2% of the simulations, where AC biomass exceeded 200 kg/ha, resulting in biomass declines of zooplankton and planktivorous fish near the levels observed in the Illinois River. Our findings suggest that AC would affect Lake Erie's food web by competing with other planktivorous fishes and by providing additional prey for piscivores. Our methods provide a novel approach for including uncertainty into forecasts of invasive species' impacts on aquatic food webs.

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Section: Ecopath With Ecosimmentioning

confidence: 99%

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confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web

et al. 2015

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“…Miehls et al (2009a, b) introduction to a new ecosystem. Based on the quality of the data available to us, we followed their recommendation to use biomass forcing to assess hypothetical impacts of an invasive species introduction (Langseth et al 2012). This group also tried introducing the invasive species at a low biomass, but found they had to control the species' dynamics with an artificial fishery, which may also explain why we did not see major changes to the system when we introduced B.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Dynamic models were developed under two scenarios: 1) Bellamya chinensis were introduced at a density of 0.0003 t km −2 and projected without biomass forcing or 2) Bellamya chinensis were introduced at a density of 0.0003 t km −2 and a biomass forcing function was loaded to simulate effects resulting from snail biomasses determined by logistic growth (de Vladar 2006) from the introduced density up to the carrying capacity. Carrying capacity was calculated for each reservoir (described inLangseth et al 2012), using a conservative value of 10% (3.838 t km −2 ) of the empirically calculated post-drought biomass of the B. chinensis population in Wild Plum of 38.58 t km −2…”

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confidence: 99%

Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species

Haak

Fath

Forbes

et al. 2017

Journal of Environmental Management

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Network analysis is used to address diverse ecological, social, economic, and epidemiological questions, but few efforts have been made to combine these field-specific analyses into interdisciplinary approaches that effectively address how complex systems are interdependent and connected to one another. Identifying and understanding these cross-boundary connections improves natural resource management and promotes proactive, rather than reactive, decisions. This research had two main objectives; first, adapt the framework and approach of infectious disease network modeling so that it may be applied to the socio-ecological problem of spreading aquatic invasive species, and second, use this new coupled model to simulate the spread of the invasive Chinese mystery snail (Bellamya chinensis) in a reservoir network in Southeastern Nebraska, USA. The coupled model integrates an existing social network model of how anglers move on the landscape with new reservoir-specific ecological network models. This approach allowed us to identify 1) how angler movement among reservoirs aids in the spread of B. chinensis, 2) how B. chinensis alters energy flows within individual-reservoir food webs, and 3) a new method for assessing the spread of any number of non-native or invasive species within complex, social-ecological systems.

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“…Asian Carp (i.e., Grass, Silver and Bighead Carp) and their impacts or predicted impacts of have been a major focus of research on numerous systems throughout the Midwestern United States. However, most of this focus is centered on the Laurentian Great Lakes and the possibility of Asian Carp invasion in these systems (Langseth et al, 2012;Zhang et al, 2016); relatively little research focus has been devoted to an equally important system, the Upper Mississippi River (Delong, 2010;Freedman et al, 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A food web modeling assessment of Asian Carp impacts in the Middle and Upper Mississippi River, USA

et al. 2019

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The invasion of non-native fishes has caused a great detriment to many of our native fishes. Since the introduction of invasive carps, such as Silver, Bighead, Common and Grass Carp, managers and researcher have been struggling to remove these species while also hypothesizing the detriment of further invasion. This study developed a food web model of four locations on the Mississippi River and used those models to assess the impacts of two scenarios: carp removal and carp invasion. In the Middle Mississippi River where these invasive carps are already present, the models found that it would take a sustained exploitation of up to 30% of initial biomass over an extended period to remove Grass Carp and up to 90% removal of initial biomass to remove Silver and Bighead Carp. In the locations where Silver, Bighead, and Grass Carp are not yet established (i.e., Pools 4,8, and 13) the invasion of these species could cause declines from 10 to 30% in initial biomass of native fishes as well as already established nonnative invasive species.

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Modeling species invasions in Ecopath with Ecosim: An evaluation using Laurentian Great Lakes models

Cited by 44 publications

References 21 publications

Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web

Forecasting the Impacts of Silver and Bighead Carp on the Lake Erie Food Web

Coupling ecological and social network models to assess “transmission” and “contagion” of an aquatic invasive species

A food web modeling assessment of Asian Carp impacts in the Middle and Upper Mississippi River, USA

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