Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Johnson, Thomas E.; Butcher, Jonathan B.; Deb, D.; Faizullabhoy, Mustafa; Hummel, Paul R.; Kittle, John L.; McGinnis, Seth; Mearns, Linda O.; Nover, Daniel; Parker, Andrew; Sarkar, Saumya; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Tuppad, Pushpa; Warren, Meredith Pavlick; Weaver, C. P.; Witt, Jonathan W.

doi:10.1111/1752-1688.12308

Cited by 56 publications

(62 citation statements)

References 52 publications

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“…Verma et al () projected a reduction in flow of 8.5%, which would be in the lowest quartile of our results. The sediment results from these studies are similar to those projected for streamflows, with Johnson et al () projecting very small (0.6%) increases in total suspended solids, Bosch et al () projecting larger increases of 8–32%, and Verma et al () projecting decreases of 10.4%. With the exception of the high estimate of 32% from Bosch et al () these estimates are within the range of our results, with the results from Johnson et al () being closest to our median.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 71%

“…Several other studies have examined climate change in the Maumee River, although they used the CMIP3 climate scenarios and had differences in methodologies and study periods. Results from both Johnson et al () and Cherkauer and Sinha () suggested little change in the average flows by Mid‐Century, whereas Bosch et al () projected a 6–18% increase in flow; these results are within the middle two quartiles of those presented here. Verma et al () projected a reduction in flow of 8.5%, which would be in the lowest quartile of our results.…”

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 64%

“…In contrast, a more narrowly focused study on the Maumee that utilized three GCMs and a single emissions scenario found that annual average flow and sediment loads will decrease by Mid‐Century (2045 to 2055), although there was significant variability in the monthly sediment loads (Verma et al, ). As part of a nationwide study of 20 watersheds with SWAT simulations, Johnson et al () found that five of their six climate change scenarios would likely increase flow and sediment delivery in the Maumee by Mid‐Century (2041 to 2070).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of projected climate change on sediment yield and dredging costs

Dahl

Kendall

Hyndman

2018

Hydrological Processes

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Changes in climate may significantly affect how sediment moves through watersheds into harbours and channels that are dredged for navigation or flood control. Here, we applied a hydrologic model driven by a large suite of climate change scenarios to simulate both historical and future sediment yield and transport in two large, adjacent watersheds in the Great Lakes region. Using historical dredging expenditure data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, we then developed a pair of statistical models that link sediment discharge from each river to dredging costs at the watershed outlet. Although both watersheds show similar slight decreases in streamflow and sediment yield in the near‐term, by Mid‐Century, they diverge substantially. Dredging costs are projected to change in opposite directions for the two watersheds; we estimate that future dredging costs will decline in the St. Joseph River by 8–16% by Mid‐Century but increase by 1–6% in the Maumee River. Our results show that the impacts of climate change on sediment yield and dredging may vary significantly by watershed even within a region and that agricultural practices will play a large role in determining future streamflow and sediment loads. We also show that there are large variations in responses across climate projections that cause significant uncertainty in sediment and dredging projections.

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Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 71%

Section: Resultssupporting

confidence: 64%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Impacts of projected climate change on sediment yield and dredging costs

Dahl

Kendall

Hyndman

2018

Hydrological Processes

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“…Modeling studies applying similar methods to watersheds across the nation generally project increases in total nutrient loads (median) for much of the eastern and northern U.S. (Johnson et al. ; Fant et al. ; Sinha et al.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 2: Nutrients, Algal Blooms, Sediment, Pathogens

Coffey

Paul

Stamp

et al. 2018

J American Water Resour Assoc

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In this paper we review the published, scientific literature addressing the response of nutrients, sediment, pathogens, and cyanobacterial blooms to historical and potential future changes in air temperature and precipitation. The goal is to document how different attributes of water quality are sensitive to these drivers, to characterize future risk, to inform management responses, and to identify research needs to fill gaps in our understanding. Results suggest that anticipated future changes present a risk of water quality and ecosystem degradation in many United States locations. Understanding responses is, however, complicated by inherent high spatial and temporal variability, interactions with land use and water management, and dependence on uncertain changes in hydrology in response to future climate. Effects on pollutant loading in different watershed settings generally correlate with projected changes in precipitation and runoff. In all regions, increased heavy precipitation events are likely to drive more episodic pollutant loading to water bodies. The risk of algal blooms could increase due to an expanded seasonal window of warm water temperatures and the potential for episodic increases in nutrient loading. Increased air and water temperatures are also likely to affect the survival of waterborne pathogens. Responding to these challenges requires understanding of vulnerabilities, and management strategies to reduce risk.

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“…Agricultural productivity and water resources can be degraded with unfavorable sequences from these weather events, resulting in: substantial losses of soil, nutrients, and fertilizers in agricultural fields; pollutant loadings to waterbodies; and subsequent water quality issues, particularly in agriculturally dominated regions (Whitehead et al 2009;Johnson et al 2015). The National Climate Assessment (2014) concluded that climate change "is already affecting the American people in far-reaching ways" and that the future will be unlike the past.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Florida’s Agriculture

Her¹,

Boote²,

Migliaccio³

et al. 2017

Florida’s Climate: Changes, Variations, &Amp; Impacts

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In this chapter, we describe Florida's agriculture, the vulnerability of its crops and livestock to climate change and possible adaptation strategies. Much of Florida's agricultural success is linked to its moderate climate, which allows vegetable and fruit crop production during the winter/spring season as Key Messages• Florida's agricultural industries provide over $120 billion in economic revenue to the state, second only to tourism, and support more than two million jobs.• Florida's diverse climate conditions make it suitable for many crops, fruits, livestock, and seafood, although these are vulnerable to climate variations that occur from year to year.• Florida's agriculture has a long history of successful adaptations to the vagaries of weather and climate, but climate change poses a challenge that is unprecedented in magnitude and rates of change.• Although current temperatures are near optimal for growing many of our crops, yields are lower during the hotter seasons that occur now, and additional increases in future temperatures will lead to lower crop yields, creating challenges to the competitiveness of current production systems.• Florida's agriculture faces additional challenges from climate change characterized by sea level rise and intensified extreme climate events, affecting land and irrigation water 236 • YOUNG GU HER ET AL.availability, crop yield and quality, livestock productivity, as well as pest and disease pressures.• The known increases in atmospheric CO 2 concentration can stimulate growth in some crops but will reduce the nutritional value of many food crops. Higher atmospheric CO 2 concentration will also increase canopy temperatures and could add to the adverse effects of temperature.• New technologies and adaptation strategies needed for sustainable agricultural production in Florida include increased water and nutrient use efficiency in crops, crop and livestock breeding for heat stress, pest and disease resistance, and reduced exposure of livestock to high temperatures.• Knowledge gaps include an understanding of climate change impacts on growth and nutritional value of vegetable and fruit crops, the dynamics of pests and diseases, and direct and indirect effects (the latter via pasture growth) on livestock and livestock-crop systems.• New experiments and development of modeling and analysis tools are needed for many of the economically-important agricultural systems in order to better estimate climate change impacts on Florida's diverse agricultural production systems.

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Modeling Streamflow and Water Quality Sensitivity to Climate Change and Urban Development in 20 U.S. Watersheds

Cited by 56 publications

References 52 publications

Impacts of projected climate change on sediment yield and dredging costs

Impacts of projected climate change on sediment yield and dredging costs

A Review of Water Quality Responses to Air Temperature and Precipitation Changes 2: Nutrients, Algal Blooms, Sediment, Pathogens

Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation in Florida’s Agriculture

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