Modeling Survival and Destruction of Teak Plantations in Java, Indonesia

Evaluation of Annual Allowable Cut (AAC) Determination of Teak Forest Plantations in Perum Perhutani, Indonesia

“…Overall, when the condition improved as before the massive illegal logging, the CPC in AC accounted for 46.4% I which mean 53.6% of AC was predicted to survive until the I age of final cutting. This result had the same value as that of the survival analysis approach (Tiryana et al 2011) for Kebonharjo FMU which mentioned that the survival probability before 1997 (before the massive illegal logging cases) made up 55% for cycle of 60 years. On the other hand, if the damaged condition continued to happen as in the condition in the 1993 2013, there would be only about 11.5% of AC that was predicted to survive until the end of I rotation.…”

“…In the FMU level, the damage rate for the period of 1973 1992 constituted 8.2% in average per period or 0.8% per year, as well as in the period of 1993 2012 the trend had increased approximately 3.7% per year. By comparing it to Kebonharjo FMU (Tiryana et al 2011) : 2089: -2063 accounted for 2% for the period before the massive illegal logging cases and rose to 3.5% per year after the massive illegal logging cases. Those showed that the damage rates in both Randublatung FMU and Kebonharjo FMU were similar.…”

“…illegal logging, forest fire, grazing, fuelwood collection, and encroachment). Forest disturbances, which accelerated during the period of economic crisis (1998 1999), have caused severe destruction that has drastically changed the age structure of teak plantations (Tiryana et al 2011). In the last two decades, the forest area depletion characterized by the forest stand structure which is dominated by young stands (1 20 − − JMHT Vol.…”

“…A high rate of unplanned harvesting, especially to the remaining stands in illegal-logging areas brought unbalanced distribution of the teak growing stock and it gives a bad sign for unsustainable harvest in the future (Ichwandi et al 2009). Although the effect of forest disturbances on teak plantation is obvious, the potential risk of stand destruction is still ignored in the current forest management planning, especially when PP determines the annual allowable cut (AAC) (Tiryana et al 2011).…”

“…Modeling the risk of forest damage has done to damage caused by natural hazards, for damage caused by illegal logging is relatively rare. Modeling of forest destruction (mainly due to illegal logging) in teak plantations have been done with survival analysis approach (Tiryana et al 2011), but it has not been used for the determination of AAC. Another risk consideration focus on how to reduce the volume of harvested timber based on predicted risk (Leech 2002).…”