Modeling the carbon budget of the Australian electricity sector's transition to renewable energy

Howard, Bahareh Sara; Hamilton, Nicholas E.; Diesendorf, Mark; Wiedmann, Thomas

doi:10.1016/j.renene.2018.02.013

Cited by 24 publications

(18 citation statements)

References 21 publications

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“…11). The building duration t bd was set to 15 years to reflect the short construction time frame needed to ramp up RE generation quickly and reduce greenhouse emissions fast enough to limit global temperature rise to 1.5°C and forestall dangerous climate change [60].…”

Section: Calculation Of the Cost Of Energy For Each Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Can high levels of renewable energy be cost effective using battery storage? Cost of renewable energy scenarios for an isolated electric grid in Western Australia

Laslett

2020

Renew. Energy Environ. Sustain.

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Many simulations of very high or 100% renewable energy electricity systems rely on existing or expanded capacity of utility scale power technologies with long construction lead times, such as hydro power or pumped hydro power. However, globally, the shorter lead time and more distributed technologies of wind power, solar PV, and batteries are expanding rapidly, and costs are falling. Can a grid get to high levels of renewable energy with these technologies alone, along with energy efficiency improvements, at reasonable cost? To address this question, scenarios of partial (<100%) renewable electricity supply were simulated for the South-West Interconnected System (SWIS) in the southwest of Western Australia. The SWIS is isolated from other grids, so power balance between supply and demand must be maintained completely within the grid, and there is no significant hydropower capacity to fall back on. Even with no improvement in cost and no carbon price, the partial renewable energy scenarios were found to be less expensive than a fossil fuel "business as usual" scenario up to about 70% renewable generation. With carbon prices of $24/tonne and $70/tonne, the same scenarios were less expensive up to around 80% and 96% renewable generation respectively. Hence at current costs, using solar PV, wind, energy efficiency and battery storage technologies are cost effective up to very high levels of renewable energy, but not 100%. However the cost of these technologies are falling rapidly. A simple way to include these continuous cost improvements into the levelised cost of energy calculation was developed, and it was found that if the costs of solar, wind and battery technologies continue to improve at current global rates, then the break even level with conventional generation increases significantly, up to 99% or above with a carbon price of $70/ tonne and current Australian installed capacity growth rates. Hence a battery based system operating at almost 100% renewable energy which is no more expensive than a conventional fossil system is foreseeable for the SWIS grid, and perhaps other grids as well.*

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Section: Calculation Of the Cost Of Energy For Each Scenariomentioning

confidence: 99%

Can high levels of renewable energy be cost effective using battery storage? Cost of renewable energy scenarios for an isolated electric grid in Western Australia

Laslett

2020

Renew. Energy Environ. Sustain.

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“…This will cause a non-optimal design. To solve this problem, the pipeline optimization should be separated into two steps: (1) Optimize pipe diameter and wall thickness; (2) Optimize inlet pressure and number of pump stations. Note that the ideal conditions denote continuous pipe diameter and wall thickness.…”

Section: Two-step Optimization Model For Pipeline Designmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Carbon dioxide is generally considered as one of the main reasons for climatic variation . Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is regarded as a powerful technological solution for reducing global CO 2 emissions, which includes the three sub‐systems of CO 2 capture: transportation, utilization, and storage.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…C arbon dioxide is generally considered as one of the main reasons for climatic variation. 1,2 Carbon capture, utilization, and storage CO 2 transportation as a link to transport CO 2 from the source to the oil field for CCUS projects. [8][9][10] However, uncertainties always exist in practice in pipeline design, which strongly affect the optimization results and may lead to unnecessary cost.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A nonlinear interval number programming algorithm for CO₂ pipeline transportation design under uncertainties

Tian

Zhao²,

Wang

et al. 2019

Greenhouse Gases

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Carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) technology includes three sub‐systems of CO2 capture: transportation, utilization, and storage. Pipeline transportation is the middle link of CCUS, and its optimization is closely connected with the other two sub‐systems. However, technical and economic parameter uncertainties strongly affect the optimal pipeline cost, which creates a need for flexibility in pipeline design. To solve the flexible optimization design problem in CO2 pipeline transportation, this paper proposes an interval number optimization algorithm. Average levelized cost and system robustness are given as the optimization objectives. A two‐objective, two‐level, two‐step optimization problem is established and solved using a quantum genetic algorithm (QGA). The proposed interval number optimization algorithm makes the optimization process with good decision space, the decision makers can flexibly make decisions based on experimental analysis and subjective preference, and the designed pipeline transportation is flexible and can be combined with the optimization of the other sub‐systems. It can also attain the goal of coordination and unification of CCUS optimization. Numerical studies show that the proposed method can solve the flexible optimization problem effectively in the presence of uncertainties. © 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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“…This, in part, derives from the fact that, even if policy makers struggled to integrate a comprehensive climate change policy within the energy market framework (Nelson et al, 2019), when the Australian market was liberalized the overriding priority was competitiveness (Pollitt and Haney, 2013), which is nowadays put besides energy security and decarbonization. From this situation arise the efforts of the Australian government to implement environmental policies aimed to respect the target of reducing emissions by 26% − 28% below 2005 levels by 2030 (Howard et al, 2018), whose main result was the enactment of the Clean Energy Act, in 2011, that introduced a carbon pricing scheme in Australia.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effects of Carbon Tax on Electricity Price Volatility: Empirical Evidences from the Australian Market

Comincioli

Vergalli

2020

SSRN Journal

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Among the wide variety of policy options adopted worldwide to control carbon emissions, one of the most environmentally effective and economically efficient is represented by carbon tax, that aims to recoup the damage arising from polluting production processes. In this paper, we focus on the Australian Carbon Pricing Mechanism (CPM) and on the effects that its introduction had on the electricity market. The most relevant effect is the reduction of the level of electricity price's volatility. This effect has been investigated after having removed, from electricity data time series, the periodic behavior, through a multiple linear regression. Then, to study volatility dynamics, we fit a two-states Markov-switching model to represent a high-volatility and a low-volatility states of the world. This model highlighted that in both states the level of volatility is lower and that the persistence of the second state is increased by the presence of the CPM. This result is particularly important in investment evaluation: knowing the different dynamics of price volatility in presence of a carbon tax or not, can provide crucial information in investment decision and its timing.

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Modeling the carbon budget of the Australian electricity sector's transition to renewable energy

Cited by 24 publications

References 21 publications

Can high levels of renewable energy be cost effective using battery storage? Cost of renewable energy scenarios for an isolated electric grid in Western Australia

Can high levels of renewable energy be cost effective using battery storage? Cost of renewable energy scenarios for an isolated electric grid in Western Australia

A nonlinear interval number programming algorithm for CO₂ pipeline transportation design under uncertainties

Effects of Carbon Tax on Electricity Price Volatility: Empirical Evidences from the Australian Market

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Modeling the carbon budget of the Australian electricity sector's transition to renewable energy

Cited by 24 publications

References 21 publications

Can high levels of renewable energy be cost effective using battery storage? Cost of renewable energy scenarios for an isolated electric grid in Western Australia

Can high levels of renewable energy be cost effective using battery storage? Cost of renewable energy scenarios for an isolated electric grid in Western Australia

A nonlinear interval number programming algorithm for CO2 pipeline transportation design under uncertainties

Effects of Carbon Tax on Electricity Price Volatility: Empirical Evidences from the Australian Market

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A nonlinear interval number programming algorithm for CO₂ pipeline transportation design under uncertainties