Modeling the dispersion of Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. pollen with the model system COSMO-ART

Abstract

Common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) is a highly allergenic plant that is spreading throughout Europe. Ragweed pollen can be transported over large distances by the wind. Even low pollen concentrations of less than 10 pollen m−3 can lead to health problems in sensitive persons. Therefore, forecasting the airborne concentrations of ragweed pollen is becoming more and more important for public health. The question remains whether distant pollen sources need to be considered in reliable forecasts. We used the extended numerical weather prediction system COSMO-ART to simulate the release and transport of ragweed pollen in central Europe. A pollen episode (September 12–16, 2006) in north-eastern Germany was modeled in order to find out where the pollen originated. For this purpose, several different source regions were taken into account and their individual impact on the daily mean pollen concentration and the performance of the forecast were studied with the means of a 2 × 2 contingency table and skill scores. It was found that the majority of the pollen originated in local areas, but up to 20% of the total pollen load came from distant sources in Hungary. It is concluded that long-distance transport should not be neglected when predicting pollen concentrations.

Development of a regional-scale pollen emission and transport modeling framework for investigating the impact of climate change on allergic airway disease

“…Even though pollen dispersal is normally treated as a local scale transport phenomenon, long distance dispersal (LDD) through mechanically-and thermally-induced updraft turbulent eddies and regional transport is also possible (Kuparinen, 2006). These additional dispersal mechanisms have been confirmed both by observations (Cecchi et al, 2006;Ranta et al, 2006;Skjøth et al, 2007;Mahura et al, 2007) and by modeling using back trajectory analysis (Smith et al, 2008;Markra et al, 2010) and source apportionment (Veriankaitė et al, 2010;Zink et al, 2012). The regional transport of pollen is especially important from a health impact perspective since non-local pollen sources from LDD will change the local pollen load and shift the exposure potential for pollen allergens Zink et al, 2012).…”

Crop harvest in Denmark and Central Europe contributes to the local load of airborne <i>Alternaria</i> spore concentrations in Copenhagen

“…patterns can be simulated with atmospheric transport models. Furthermore, development of emission models and inventories makes it possible to use source-based models such as DEHM (Brandt et al, 2012), SILAM (Sofiev et al, 2006) and COSMO-ART (Zink et al, 2012) for improved understanding of aeroallergens and ultimately better information to the public.…”

Improvement in the accuracy of back trajectories using WRF to identify pollen sources in southern Iberian Peninsula

“…Prtenjak et al 2012;Sofiev et al 2013;Schueler and Schlünzen 2006;Zink et al 2012). The application of these tools increases the understanding of pollen transport compared to the use of ground-based meteorological observations (e.g.…”