Modeling the Distribution of the Chytrid Fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis with Special Reference to Ukraine

Tytar, Volodymyr; Nekrasova, Oksana; Pupins, Mihails; Skute, Arturs; Kirjušina, Muza; Gravele, Evita; Mežaraupe, Ligita; Marushchak, Oleksii; Čeirāns, Andris; Kozynenko, Iryna; Kulikova, Alena

doi:10.3390/jof9060607

Cited by 5 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 100 publications

(119 reference statements)

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“…A particular interest exists in assessing the potential changes in habitat suitability due to climate change for medically or economically relevant species. For instance, IPCC reports claimed that among other consequences, climate change will change the range of some of the vectors and vector-borne infectious diseases [3,4]. Tick-borne diseases have been considered a major health problem in recent decades.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick,Ixodes ricinus(Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia

Tytar,

Kozynenko,

Pupins

et al. 2024

Preprint

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This study assesses the impact of climate change on the distribution ofIxodes ricinusticks, that is transmitting Lyme disease, a growing public health concern. Utilizing ensemble models from the R package flexsdm and climate data from WorldClim, ENVIREM, and CliMond, we project habitat suitability changes for the focus species. The models, validated against Lyme disease incidence rates, predicted a 1.5-fold increase in suitable habitats in Latvia opposite to a 4.5-fold decrease in suitable habitats within Ukraine over the coming decades. SHAP values were analyzed to determine the most influential climatic features affecting tick distribution, providing insights for future vector control and disease prevention strategies: here name the drivers in decreasing order. This implies an increased presence of ticks in Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Norway, Finland), Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Denmark, and Belarus. These findings largely coincide with our projections regarding bioclimatic suitability for ticks in Ukraine and Latvia. These shifts reflect broader patterns of vector redistribution driven by global warming, with potential expansions in higher altitudes and latitudes. Our findings highlight the urgent need to adapt public health planning to the evolving landscape of vector-borne diseases under climate change.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick,Ixodes ricinus(Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia

Tytar,

Kozynenko,

Pupins

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Present and future distribution of the European pond turtle versus seven exotic freshwater turtles, with a focus on Eastern Europe

Nekrasova,

Pupins,

Marushchak

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Countrywide screening supports model-based predictions of the distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ukraine

Jakóbik,

Drohvalenko,

Fernandez Melendez

et al. 2024

Dis. Aquat. Org.

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The chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a widespread fungus causing amphibian declines across the globe. Although data on Bd occurrence in Eastern Europe are scarce, a recent species distribution model (SDM) for Bd reported that western and north-western parts of Ukraine are highly suitable to the pathogen. We verified the SDM-predicted range of Bd in Ukraine by sampling amphibians across the country and screening for Bd using qPCR. A total of 446 amphibian samples (tissue and skin swabs) from 11 species were collected from 36 localities. We obtained qPCR-positive results for 33 samples including waterfrogs (Pelophylax esculentus complex) and fire- and yellow-bellied toads (Bombina spp.) from 8 localities. We found that Bd-positive localities had significantly higher predicted Bd habitat suitability than sites that were pathogen-free. Amplification and sequencing of the internal transcribed spacer (ITS) region of samples with the highest Bd load revealed matches with ITS haplotypes of the globally distributed BdGPL strain, and a single case of the BdASIA-2/BdBRAZIL haplotype. We found that Bd was non-randomly distributed across Ukraine, with infections present in the western and north-central forested peripheries of the country with a relatively cool, moist climate. On the other hand, our results suggest that Bd is absent or present in low abundance in the more continental central, southern and eastern regions of Ukraine, corroborating the model-predicted distribution of chytrid fungus. These areas could potentially serve as climatic refugia for Bd-susceptible amphibian hosts.

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Modeling the Distribution of the Chytrid Fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis with Special Reference to Ukraine

Cited by 5 publications

References 100 publications

Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick,Ixodes ricinus(Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia

Species distribution modeling of the castor bean tick,Ixodes ricinus(Linnaeus, 1758), under current and future climates, with a special focus on Ukraine and Latvia

Present and future distribution of the European pond turtle versus seven exotic freshwater turtles, with a focus on Eastern Europe

Countrywide screening supports model-based predictions of the distribution of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in Ukraine

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