Modeling the dynamics of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) via stochastic epidemic model

Abstract

Novel coronavirus disease is a burning issue all over the world. Spreading of the novel coronavirus having the characteristic of rapid transmission whenever the air molecules or the freely existed virus includes in the surrounding and therefore the spread of virus follows a stochastic process instead of deterministic. We assume a stochastic model to investigate the transmission dynamics of the novel coronavirus. To do this, we formulate the model according to the charectersitics of the corona virus disease and then prove the existence as well as the uniqueness of the global positive solution to show the well posed-ness and feasibility of the problem. Following the theory of dynamical systems as well as by constructing a suitable stochastic Lyapunov function, we establish sufficient conditions of the extinction and the existence of stationary distribution. Finally, we carry out the large scale numerical simulations to demonstrate the verification of our analytical results.

The Impact of Disease Control Measures on the Spread of COVID-19 in the Province of Sindh, Pakistan

“…Homogenous mixing of population has been assumed for this study and contact patterns have not been evaluated which essentially can paint a very realistic image of the existing chains of infections Additionally, the evaluation of the true value of R 0 through contact tracing may be performed in the future which would incorporate network dynamics as well. We can also extend the model to include stochastic simulations and observe the long-term dynamics of COVID-19 [ 39 , 40 ].…”

Bio-Inspired Numerical Analysis of COVID-19 with Fuzzy Parameters

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Application of fractional optimal control theory for the mitigating of novel coronavirus in Algeria

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