Modeling the Economic Impact of Feral Swine-Transmitted Foot-and-Mouth Disease: A Case Study from Missouri

Abstract

Invasive feral swine combine a number of characteristics (e.g., high mobility, high fecundity, destructive behavior, reservoir of diseases, etc.) that make them one of the most serious wildlife threats to American agriculture. Additionally, feral swine are susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) infection and could play a significant role in spreading and maintaining FMD if it was introduced to the U.S. Outbreaks of FMD also have devastating economic impacts and cause the loss of billions of dollars to the agricultural economy. Problems associated with spread and control would be exacerbated if FMD was contracted and spread by feral swine, threatening the 4.3 million head of cattle and 3.1 million head of domestic hogs in Missouri. This study uses a bioeconomic modeling framework to estimate the direct and indirect economic impacts of FMD being transmitted from feral swine to Missouri's livestock. It is predicted that if FMD occurred in feral swine in Missouri, the disease outbreak would last 45 days, resulting in 18,658 head of livestock being destroyed, and would cost the state a minimum of $7.5 million.

Benefits of an Animal Traceability System for a Foot-and-Mouth Disease Outbreak: A Supply-Driven Social Accounting Matrix Approach

“…It is a flexible tool that can simulate the temporal and spatial spread of FMD at the herd level (Harvey et al, 2007). The NAADSM has been used by Pendell (2006), Pendell et al (2007), Paarlberg et al (2008), Cozzens et al (2010), Jones (2010), McReynolds (2013), Schroeder et al (2015), and Pendell et al (2015) to simulate outbreaks of FMD in selected regions of the United States and Canada, as well as to analyze the efficacy of various control strategies.…”

“…Pendell et al (2007) analyze the hypothetical FMD impacts on the southwest Kansas economy using the SAM approach. Although prior studies (Cozzens et al, 2010; Ekboir, 1999; Garner and Lack, 1995; Mahul and Durand, 2000; Moon, Park, and Soh, 2013; Pendell et al, 2007, 2015; Schroeder et al, 2015) have used a similar analysis to estimate the economic impact of an FMD outbreak at different levels of the marketing chain, this study specifically imposes different levels of traceability and uses a novel supply-driven SAM (SDSAM) model (explained subsequently) based on the IMPLAN database to estimate the economic benefit of better traceability. Note that Kim (2015) investigates the actual 2010–2011 FMD impacts on the Korean economy using the supply-driven IO model.…”

“…The input-output (IO) analysis using the IMPLAN (impact analysis for planning) database (MIG Inc.), more specifically the SAM approach, is utilized to measure the impact of an FMD outbreak and the benefits of animal traceability. Previous studies that have used the IO framework to examine the economic impact of FMD outbreaks are Garner and Lack (1995) for Australia, Ekboir (1999) for a hypothetical FMD outbreak in California, Mahul and Durand (2000) for France, Cozzens et al (2010) for swine-transmitted FMD in Missouri, and Moon, Park, and Soh (2013) for Korea.…”

Potential role of wildlife in the USA in the event of a foot‐and‐mouth disease virus incursion

“…13 A number of models approximate the cost associated with an introduction of FMD into the USA; however, outcomes are variable as they are dependent on a number of factors, including species of detection; size of the operation implicated in the index case; presence or absence of transmission events to other livestock of the same species, an alternative species, or wildlife or feral animals; geographical location within the country; and rapidity of detection and deployment of disease control eforts. [14][15][16] Notably, based on information from the 2001 FMD outbreak in the UK, the total cost may, in fact, be much larger. 17 More than 6,000,000 animals were depopulated and the direct costs to the public and private sectors combined are approximated at over US$10.5 billion.…”

“…Estimates indicate that FMD costs between US$6.5 and US$21 billion annually in endemic countries, with the principal costs attributed to production losses and vaccination and outbreaks of FMD can cost FMD‐free countries more than US$1.5 billion annually 13 . A number of models approximate the cost associated with an introduction of FMD into the USA; however, outcomes are variable as they are dependent on a number of factors, including species of detection; size of the operation implicated in the index case; presence or absence of transmission events to other livestock of the same species, an alternative species, or wildlife or feral animals; geographical location within the country; and rapidity of detection and deployment of disease control efforts 14–16 …”