Modeling the effect of glacier recession on streamflow response using a coupled glacio-hydrological model

Abstract

We describe an integrated spatially distributed hydrologic and glacier dynamic model, and use it to investigate the effect of glacier recession on streamflow variations for the Upper Bow River basin, a tributary of the South Saskatchewan River. Several recent studies have suggested that observed decreases in summer flows in the South Saskatchewan River are partly due to the retreat of glaciers in the river's headwaters. Modeling the effect of glacier changes on streamflow response in river basins such as the South Saskatchewan is complicated due to the inability of most existing physically-based distributed hydrologic models to represent glacier dynamics. We compare predicted variations in glacier extent, snow water equivalent and streamflow discharge made with the integrated model with satellite estimates of glacier area and terminus position, observed streamflow and snow water equivalent measurements over the period of 1980–2007. Simulations with the coupled hydrology-glacier model reduce the uncertainty in streamflow predictions. Our results suggested that on average, the glacier melt contribution to the Bow River flow upstream of Lake Louise is about 30% in summer. For warm and dry years, however, the glacier melt contribution can be as large as 50% in August, whereas for cold years, it can be as small as 20% and the timing of glacier melt signature can be delayed by a month

Towards a definition of environmental niches in alpine streams by employing chironomid species preferences

“…For that purpose, the definition of preferences for local environmental conditions (certain combination of species-specific optima and tolerance for different local environmental variables) was applied for alpine and sub-alpine invertebrates to identify not only the best-fitting indicators but also the species vulnerable to environmental change based on their ecological limitations (Beck, 2013). Autecological data of stream organisms together with hydrological prospects (Milner et al, 2009;Naz et al, 2014;Gan et al, 2015) is essential for forecasting future ecological situations and trends in alpine streams. Furthermore, the oftendebated low accuracy of models projecting ecosystem change (Pearson & Dawson, 2003;Midgley et al, 2007;Brook et al, 2009) can definitely be improved using a robust taxonomy and a comprehensive and detailed set of physical and chemical data as presented in this study.…”

Assessment on the Effect of Climate Change on Streamflow in the Source Region of the Yangtze River, China

“…Following the study of Zhao [46] and Naz [47], seven sensitive parameters in streamflow simulation were selected and one-at-a-time searches were performed to optimize the calibrated parameters to calibrate the DHSVM. An overview of the seven parameters was shown in Table 2.…”

Robust Adaptation Research in High Mountains: Integrating the Scientific, Social, and Ecological Dimensions of Glacio-Hydrological Change

“…Combined, the principles described here contribute to understanding all criteria of successful adaptation and therefore provide a solid analytical basis for understanding and informing responses to glacio-hydrological change (Table 1). Naz et al [54] Immerzeel et al [70] Viviroli et al [71] Attention to the human dimensions of hydrological change Effectiveness Efficiency Equitability Legitimacy Inclusion of local perspectives in adaptation research supports the identification of vulnerability hotspots as well as appreciation for the diverse concerns, preferences, and aspirations of climate-affected communities.…”

“…Moreover, and critically, integrated regional climate, glaciological, and hydrological modeling is essential for understanding trajectories of change and informing evidence-based anticipatory adaptation planning. Here, addressing data gaps and integrating glacio-hydrological models into adaptation studies will be critical [54,55].…”