Modeling the Effects of Future Growing Demand for Charcoal in the Tropics

Abstract

Global demand for charcoal is increasing mainly due to urban population in developing countries. More than half the global population now lives in cities, and urban-dwellers are restricted to charcoal use because of easiness of production, access, transport, and tradition. Increasing demand for charcoal, however, may lead to increasing impacts on forests, food, and water resources, and may even create additional pressures on the climate system. Here we assess how different charcoal scenarios based on the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) relate to potential biomass supply. For this, we use the energy model TIMER to project the demand for fuelwood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways for urban and rural populations, globally, and for four tropical regions (Central America, South America, Africa and Indonesia). Second, we assess whether the biomass demands for each scenario can be met with current and projected forest biomass estimated with remote sensing and modeled Net Primary Productivity (NPP) using a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-GUESS). Currently one third of residential energy use is based on traditional bioenergy, including charcoal. Globally, biomass needs by urban households by 2100 under the most sustainable scenario, SSP1, are of 14.4 mi ton biomass for charcoal plus 17.1 mi ton biomass for fuelwood (31.5 mi ton biomass in total). Under SSP3, the least sustainable scenario, we project a need of 205 mi tons biomass for charcoal plus 243.8 mi ton biomass for fuelwood by 2100 (total of 450 mi ton biomass). Africa and South America contribute the most for this biomass demand, however, all areas are able to meet the demand. We find that the future of the charcoal sector is not dire. Charcoal represents a small fraction of the energy requirements, but its biomass demands are disproportionate and in some regions require a large fraction of forest. This could be because of large growing populations moving to urban areas, conversion rates, production inefficiencies, and regions that despite available alternative energy sources still use a substantial amount of charcoal. We present a framework that combines Integrated Assessment Models and local conditions to assess whether a sustainable sector can be achieved.

Integrated policy assessment and optimisation over multiple sustainable development goals in Eastern Africa

“…The African context for energy access is rather different from historical experiences elsewhere as challenges in achieving energy access and installing energy infrastructure have coincided with major climate ambitions and climate impacts (Agbemabiese and Nkomo 2012). Furthermore, increasing reliance on charcoal in SSA may impose significant ecological constraints unless overall dependence on traditional biomass is reduced in favour of modern energy sources and services (Santos et al 2017). Consequently, innovative frameworks are needed that can reconcile energy access, health and climate ambitions along a feasible but nevertheless ambitious timeframe.…”

Integrating Food-Water-Energy Research through a Socio-Ecosystem Approach

“…Its production promotes forest degradation and, in the long run, can produce a complete deforestation process (Santos et al, 2017) and its consequences in terms of albedo changes, soil crusting, water and wind erosion, floods and droughts. Even biodiversity loss has been detected as a result of the selective harvest of indigenous hardwood species (Naughton-Treves et al, 2007).…”

“…An international group have been studying the ecosystem implication of biomass extraction for charcoal production in tropical Africa and Latin America Mwampamba et al, 2013;Santos et al, 2017). Their main concern is that this extended practice has been a slow, but persistent, pressure on the forest biomass resources.…”

“…The group has recently adopted the "nexus approach" (sensu lato Hanlon et al, 2013), which seeks a stronger understanding of the interdependencies among food, water, and energy production systems to secure a more sustainable production process. By using simulation models, they have projected the demand for fuel-wood and charcoal for different socio-economic pathways, showing the disproportionate biomass demands that in some regions will require using a large fraction of forest (Santos et al, 2017). By adopting a nexus approach, the group is facilitating the understanding of the socio-economic and ecological interactions of charcoal and agricultural production, especially by highlighting two dimensions of the socio-ecological contexts: charcoal value chains and tenure systems (Iiyama et al, 2017).…”

Applying the Water-Energy-Food Nexus to the Charcoal Value Chain

“…Food security for up to three billion individuals (Jagger and Shively, 2014;Urmee and Gyamfi, 2014) depends on bioenergy for cooking (Makungwa et al, 2013), with wood based bioenergy accounting for roughly 10% of global primary energy (Bailis et al, 2015). In SSA, up to 90% of the primary energy consumption are based on wood (Sosovele, 2010), representing up to 3% of national GDP, with charcoal being the preferred choice of urban households (Santos et al, 2017). For Dar es Salaam for instance, it is calculated that a 1% increase in urbanization leads to a 14% increase in charcoal demand (Hosier et al, 1993).…”