Modeling the effects of urbanization on grain production and consumption in China

Abstract

The impact of rapid urbanization on food security of China has received considerable attention. It is not clear whether China can strike a balance between urbanization and food security, especially grain security. There have been numerous studies examining the effects of urbanization on grain production or consumption, but few studies have yet analyzed grain balances. Based on the Chinese World Agricultural Regional Market Equilibrium Model (CWARMEM), this paper explores the impacts of urbanization on national and regional grain balances through different scenarios. The CWARMEM is a global partial equilibrium multimarket model which captures the differences between urban and rural residents as well as the effects of globalization. The results show that urbanization has a small negative effect on maintaining grain self-sufficiency. Despite of that, China is able to achieve the objective of grain security set by its policymakers. Moreover, urbanization changes regional grain balances across China: the position of Northeast China and North China, as two dominant grain suppliers of China, will be weaken; Central China and East China will increase dependence on other grain suppliers; the grain surplus of Northwest China will increase slightly. Besides, in terms of grain category, urbanization helps China achieve self-sufficiency in food grain (rice and wheat), while expands deficit of feed grain (maize).

Impacts of China’s bioethanol policy on the global maize market: a partial equilibrium analysis to 2030

“…However, such data were revised to 263.6 mmt in the China Statistical Yearbook 2018. Based on the revised statistical data, our balance sheet is different from Xu et al (2015), Lu et al (2017), andHuang et al (2017), which brings our forecast results closer to reality (Table 7).…”

“…The figure would not exceed China's 7.2 mmt tariff rate quota. However, the simulation results from Lu et al (2017), Huang et al (2017), and PRIMAFF (2021) are larger than 7.2 mmt. Huang et al (2017) indicated that other studies might underestimate feed demand because they do not fully consider the rapid growth of maize used for processing, and they overestimate the gain from livestock feeding efficiency.…”

“…Most results show that China will remain a net importer of maize in the coming decades, but the range of projections is wide. China's net import of maize in 2020-as simulated by Xu et al (2015) is 3 mmt, while Lu et al (2017) projected that the volume would be 11.5 mmt in 2025. The results of the WFSD model indicate that China's import of maize is expected to reach 9.8 mmt by 2030 (PRIMAFF, 2021), while OECD/FAO (2021) projected that China will import 7.2 mmt of maize by 2030.…”

The impact of the supply of farmland, level of agricultural mechanisation, and supply of rural labour on grain yields in China

“…Wang et al (2018a) revealed that the spatial and temporal shift of grain yield occurred as a result of farmer-protecting grain subsidies and drastic improvements in agricultural infrastructure. On the other hand, factors such as environmental degradation (Huang and Rozelle, 1995), climate change, and landuse change induced by urbanisation (Lu et al, 2017) caused a reduction in the rate of grain yield growth. Porkka et al (2013) suggest that China's national demand for grain can be fulfilled by adjusting trade policies and importing more grain from foreign markets.…”

Analysis Framework of China’s Grain Production System: A Spatial Resilience Perspective

“…Therefore, protecting food security should focus not only on production, but also on retail and consumption [8,9]. In conclusion, research on food security in China has stepped into a completely new field and category [10,11]. Furthermore, statistics about per capita water and land resources and other limiting factors should be investigated, as should issues regarding resources and the environment caused by high-intensity grain production.…”