Modeling the establishment of invasive species: habitat and biotic interactions influencing the establishment of Bythotrephes longimanus

Abstract

Bythotrephes longimanus is an invasive pelagic crustacean, which first arrived in North America from Europe in early 1980s and can now be found throughout the Great Lakes and in many inland lakes and waterways. Determining the suitability of lakes to Bythotrephes establishment is an important step in quantifying its potential habitat range and environmental risk. Lake environmental conditions, planktivorous fishes, sport fishes and Bythotrephes occurrence data from 179 south-central Ontario lakes were used in this study to model lake characteristics suitable for its establishment. The performance of principal component analysis and different predictive models was used to determine the habitats that are suitable for the survival of Bythotrephes and the factors that may regulate its spread. Four modeling approaches were employed: linear discriminant analysis; multiple logistic regression; random forests; and, artificial neural networks. Ensemble prediction based on the four modeling approaches was also used as an indicator for predicting Bythotrephes occurrence. Bythotrephes appears to establish more readily in larger, deeper lakes with lower elevation, that have more sport fishes. Bythotrephes occurrence can be best predicted by artificial neural networks when including the measures of fish data, in addition to lake environmental data. Lake elevation, surface area and sport fish occurrence were ranked as the most important predictors of Bythotrephes invasion. The inclusion of biotic variables (occurrence or diversity of sport or planktivorous fishes) enhanced cross-validated models relative to analyses based on environmental data alone.

Environmental factors modulating the extent of impact in coastal invasions: The case of a widespread invasive caprellid (Crustacea: Amphipoda) in the Iberian Peninsula

“…Introducing competitive terms into habitat modeling can significantly increase the realism and precision of these models (Leathwick and Austin, 2001;Austin, 2002;Anderson et al, 2002;Wang and Jackson, 2011). However, it is difficult to estimate whether the current absence of a particular species is due to competition or to an unidentified environmental variable (Guisan and Thuiller, 2005;Elith and Leathwick, 2009).…”

Influence of light on the foraging impact of an introduced predatory cladoceran, Bythotrephes longimanus

“…Indeed, this pattern has been confirmed by surveys that showed a relationship between the presence of Bythotrephes and high clarity (MacIsaac et al ., ; Branstrator et al ., ). Furthermore, in spite of not being the most important predictor of Bythotrephes establishment, statistical modelling has shown that DOC often emerges as one of the explanatory variables (Wang & Jackson, ). However , along the gradient of invasible lakes, our PCA results indicate that the effects of Bythotrephes on community composition in the darker lakes could be different than those observed in clearer lakes.…”

The abiotic and biotic factors limiting establishment of predatory fishes at their expanding northern range boundaries in Ontario, Canada

“…Examining both the impacts of environmental factors and species interactions on species distributions is essential to understand how climate change, or other major environmental changes, will affect biodiversity. Many recent theoretical and empirical studies have demonstrated the importance of biotic interactions across large scales (Case et al ., ; Araújo & Luoto, ; Sexton et al ., ; Wang & Jackson, ; Wenger et al ., ; Bateman et al ., ; Kissling et al ., ; Wisz et al ., ). Understanding the role of biotic interactions in determining species distributions, however, is difficult and often hindered primarily by the availability of data and then by the difficulties in inferring causation, multicollinearity, the complexity of species interactions and spatial and temporal variation in those interactions (Wisz et al ., ; Svenning et al ., ).…”