Modeling the Impact of Agricultural Mitigation Measures on the Spread of Sharka Disease in Sweet Cherry Orchards

Abstract

Sharka is a disease affecting stone fruit trees. It is caused by the Plum pox virus (PPV), with Myzus persicae being one of the most efficient aphid species in transmitting it within and among Prunus orchards. Other agricultural management strategies are also responsible for the spread of disease among trees, such as grafting and pruning. We present a mathematical model of impulsive differential equations to represent the dynamics of Sharka disease in the tree and vector population. We consider three transmission routes: grafting, pruning, and through aphid vectors. Grafting, pruning, and vector control occur as pulses at specific instants. Within the model, human risk perception towards disease influences these agricultural management strategies. Model results show that grafting with infected biological material has a significant impact on the spread of the disease. In addition, detecting infectious symptomatic and asymptomatic trees in the short term is critical to reduce disease spread. Furthermore, vector control to prevent aphid movement between trees is crucial for disease mitigation, as well as implementing awareness campaigns for Sharka disease in agricultural communities that provide a long-term impact on responsible pruning, grafting, and vector control.

Dynamic Analysis of a Delayed Differential Equation for Ips subelongatus Motschulsky-Larix spp.

“…To address the issue of forest pests and diseases, an important approach in the field of mathematics is to establish mathematical models for simulating these problems. Various models of forest diseases and pests have been studied [11][12][13]. Many scholars provided a theoretical analysis of the models from an equation analysis perspective [14][15][16][17][18].…”