Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Zarrine River Basin and Inflow to the Boukan Dam, Iran

Emami, Farzad; Koch, Manfred

doi:10.3390/cli7040051

Cited by 44 publications

(17 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…The main required climate inputs for SWAT are temperatures and precipitation, which are the ultimate climate drivers of the runoff process [28]. In this study, the SCS curve number method developed by the Soil Conservation Service [29] was used to estimate surface runoff from precipitation.…”

Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Blanco-Gómez

Jimeno‐Sáez

Senent‐Aparicio

et al. 2019

Water

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This study assessed how changes in terms of temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in water availability and droughts in an area in a developing country with environmental interest. The hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to analyze the impacts of climate change on water resources of the Guajoyo River Basin in El Salvador. El Salvador is in one of the most vulnerable regions in Latin America to the effects of climate change. The predicted future climate change by two climate change scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) and five general circulation models (GCMs) were considered. A statistical analysis was performed to identify which GCM was better in terms of goodness of fit to variation in means and standard deviations of the historical series. A significant decreasing trend in precipitation and a significant increase in annual average temperatures were projected by the middle and the end of the twenty–first century. The results indicated a decreasing trend of the amount of water available and more severe droughts for future climate scenarios with respect to the base period (1975–2004). These findings will provide local water management authorities useful information in the face of climate change to help decision making.

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Section: Model Setupmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Blanco-Gómez

Jimeno‐Sáez

Senent‐Aparicio

et al. 2019

Water

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“…For example, for the southern-most small island in the region, Trinidad, it is projected that the area would receive less intense rainfall and more dry days [4] and it is expected to become drier and warmer [5]. In the evaluation of how changes in climate conditions affect available water resources, hydrological modelling has been a valuable tool [6][7][8][9][10]. The prerequisites for the modelling process are the calibration and validation of the model, for the model's specified use.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Use of the SWAT model for estimating reservoir volume in the Upper Navet watershed in Trinidad

et al. 2021

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In tropical small islands the application of hydrological modelling is challenged by the scarcity of input data. Using in-situ and statistically estimated data, a hydrological model was calibrated and validated for the Upper Navet watershed in Trinidad, a small Caribbean island. The model was built using the soil water assessment tool (SWAT). The sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation were performed in SWAT calibration and uncertainty program (SWAT-CUP) using sequential uncertainty fitting (SUFI-2). The results revealed that for the estimated volume of water flowing into the reservoir (Flow_In) there were six sensitive parameters. To estimate the reservoir volume (Res_Vol), a modification of only the effective hydraulic conductivity was required. The model’s performance for the Flow_In validation showed acceptable values (R2 = 0.91 and NSE = 0.81). The uncertainty analysis indicated lower than recommended values for both the R-factor (0.46) and P-factor (0.31). For Res_Vol, the model’s validation performance indicated acceptable values (R2 = 0.72 and NSE = 0.70) and the P- and R-factors were 0.80 and 0.64, respectively. Based on the statistical metrics, the uncertainty for the Res_Vol was regarded as reasonable. However, care must be taken with the model’s use in the dry season, as the simulated Flow_In was generally over-predicted. A second validation of the model was performed for the reservoir under different negative (removal) and positive (addition) water amounts which confirmed the model’s ability to estimate the Res_Vol. The hydrological model established can therefore serve as a useful tool for water managers for the estimation of the Res_Vol at the Navet reservoir.

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“…Scientists have also warned that the water shortage will continue further in the coming decades in the Middle East, where water is one of the most valuable and vulnerable natural resources (Mehryar et al, 2015;Ashraf et al, 2019;Bozorg-Haddad et al, 2020). Iran is one of the countries suffering a freshwater shortage and climate change consequences (Karimi et al, 2018;Afshar and Fahimi, 2019;Emami and Koch, 2019;Naderi, 2020). For instance, the annual average rainfall in Iran is about 250 mm (Alizadeh, 2011).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Despite the importance of dew and its potential especially in dry areas, it has been disregarded from the water budget in Iran (e.g., Esfandiarnejad et al, 2010;Davtalab et al, 2013). There is a lack of dew data in Iran; therefore, we utilized a gridded model (Vuollekoski et al, 2015) and performed simulations covering 40 years to estimate the potential of dew yield.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis

Atashi

Rahimi

Sinclair

et al. 2021

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Dew is a non-conventional source of water that has been gaining interest over the last two decades, especially in arid and semi-arid regions. In this study, we performed a long-term (1979–2018) energy balance model simulation to estimate dew formation potential in Iran aiming to identify dew formation zones and to investigate the impacts of long-term variation in meteorological parameters on dew formation. The annual average of dew occurrence in Iran was ∼102 d, with the lowest number of dewy days in summer (∼7 d) and the highest in winter (∼45 d). The average daily dew yield was in the range of 0.03–0.14 L m−2 and the maximum was in the range of 0.29–0.52 L m−2. Six dew formation zones were identified based on cluster analysis of the time series of the simulated dew yield. The distribution of dew formation zones in Iran was closely aligned with topography and sources of moisture. Therefore, the coastal zones in the north and south of Iran (i.e., Caspian Sea and Oman Sea), showed the highest dew formation potential, with 53 and 34 L m−2 yr−1, whereas the dry interior regions (i.e., central Iran and the Lut Desert), with the average of 12–18 L m−2 yr−1, had the lowest potential for dew formation. Dew yield estimation is very sensitive to the choice of the heat transfer coefficient. The uncertainty analysis of the heat transfer coefficient using eight different parameterizations revealed that the parameterization used in this study – the Richards (2004) formulation – gives estimates that are similar to the average of all methods and are neither much lower nor much higher than the majority of other parameterizations and the largest differences occur for the very low values of daily dew yield. Trend analysis results revealed a significant (p<0.05) negative trend in the yearly dew yield in most parts of Iran during the last 4 decades (1979–2018). Such a negative trend in dew formation is likely due to an increase in air temperature and a decrease in relative humidity and cloudiness over the 40 years.

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Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Water Availability in the Zarrine River Basin and Inflow to the Boukan Dam, Iran

Cited by 44 publications

References 30 publications

Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Impact of Climate Change on Water Balance Components and Droughts in the Guajoyo River Basin (El Salvador)

Use of the SWAT model for estimating reservoir volume in the Upper Navet watershed in Trinidad

Delineation of dew formation zones in Iran using long-term model simulations and cluster analysis

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