Modeling the impact of development policies and climate on suburban watershed hydrology near Portland, Oregon

Wright, Maria; Santelmann, Mary V.; Vaché, Kellie B.; Hulse, David

doi:10.1016/j.landurbplan.2021.104133

Cited by 12 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 35 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Modeling of these same future scenarios at the scale of the Chicken Creek watershed containing this neighborhood (Wright et al, 2021) produced similar rankings of the scenarios with respect to their performance in retaining pre-development hydrology (IW> CC > SR). In that study, SWMM was used to model the hydrologic response of the developed portions of the watershed and HBV was used for areas in natural vegetation and agriculture.…”

Section: Comparison Of Our Results With Those Of Similar Studiesmentioning

confidence: 89%

“…For the continuous simulations, we calculated annual values for the following metrics: surface runoff, total system infiltration volume, evaporation, maximum storage unit volume, and peak system runoff. Because the neighborhoods envisioned in our scenarios do not yet exist, we could not use traditional validation methods comparing simulated and observed results (Rosa David et al, 2015;Wright et al, 2021). We did, however, perform sensitivity analyses of the key parameters used in SWMM to help provide context for the SWMM results.…”

Section: Comparison Of Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Land use in the modeled neighborhood for our baseline date of 2010 was primarily rural residential and agricultural. These land use data were available at a 10 m resolution and represent the most accurate LULC coverage available for the Willamette River Basin, and were also used for the larger project at the basin and watershed scale (Santelmann et al, 2019;Wright et al, 2021). Local city planning is expecting further development with the construction of a new school in the northeast section of the neighborhood (Figure 1).…”

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…One set of runs used daily precipitation inputs for 2060-2069 from downscaled, bias corrected climate projections (MACAv1) from the HadGEM-ES Global Climate Model (GCM) and the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas concentration pathway (Abatzoglou, 2013). This dataset was selected so that SWMM output for the West Sherwood neighborhood could be compared with a companion study of climate and development effects on the future water balance in the surrounding Chicken Creek Watershed (Wright et al, 2021), and to results from a previous project investigating impacts of climate change and population growth in the Willamette River Basin (Jaeger et al, 2017). Modeling in the companion study generated monthly average evaporation data for the years 2010-2059, and that input was used in the continuous simulations reported here.…”

Section: Input Specific To 10-year Continuous Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…This project used a stakeholder-guided process to design alternative future scenarios representing contrasting approaches to development that would accommodate population growth, climate change, and meet current construction and design standards, and assessed the performance of each scenario at the scale of an urbanizing neighborhood. This work was part of a larger project to investigate the effectiveness of multiscale planning efforts to mitigate the impacts of both population growth and climate change in the Willamette Valley, Oregon (Santelmann et al, 2019;Wright et al, 2021). Here, we focused at the neighborhood scale to explore the impacts of different approaches to urbanization and stormwater management on catchment hydrology and other metrics reflecting co-benefits such as spatial extent of public open space and cost per dwelling unit.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 4 more Smart Citations

Role of Neighborhood Design in Reducing Impacts of Development and Climate Change, West Sherwood, OR

Tchintcharauli-Harrison

Santelmann

Greydanus

et al. 2022

Front. Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

We used the EPA SWMM-5. 1 model to evaluate the relative impact of neighborhood design and constructed Low Impact Development (LID) features on infiltration, evaporation, and runoff for three future scenarios. In the Current Course (CC) future, current regulations and policies remain in place under lower rates of climate change and population growth. In the Stressed Resources (SR) future, rapid rates of population growth and climate change stress water systems, and conventional development patterns and management actions fail to keep pace with a changing environment. In the Integrated Water (IW) future, with the same rapid rates of climate change and population growth as the SR future, informed water management anticipates and adapts to expected changes. The IW scenario retains public open space, extensive use of constructed LID features, and has the lowest proportion of impervious surface. Neighborhood designs varied in the number of dwelling units, density of development, and spatial extent of nature-based solutions and constructed LID features used for stormwater management. We compared the scenarios using SWMM-5.1 for a set of NRCS Type 1a design storms (2-yr, 25-yr, 20% increase over 25-yr, 30% increase over 25-yr) with precipitation input at 6-min time steps as well as a set of 10-year continuous runs. Results illustrate the importance of neighborhood design in urban hydrology. The design with the highest proportion of impervious surface (SR future) produced runoff of up to 45–50% of precipitation for all variations of the 25-year storm, compared to 34–44 and 23–39% for the CC and IW futures, respectively. Evaporation accounted for only 2–3% of precipitation in the 25-year design storm simulations for any scenario. Results of continuous 10-year simulations were similar to the results of design storms. The proportion of precipitation that became runoff was highest in the SR future (33%), intermediate in the CC (16%), and lowest in the IW future (9%). Evaporation accounted for 6, 11, and 14 of precipitation in the SR, CC, and IW futures with LID, respectively. Infiltration was higher in scenarios with LID than for the same scenario without LID, and varied with the extent of LID employed, accounting for 59, 71, and 74% of precipitation in the SR, CC, and IW scenarios with LID. In addition to differences in performance for stormwater management, the alternative scenarios also provide different sets of co-benefits. The IW and SR future designs both provide more housing than the CC, and the IW future has the lowest cost of development per dwelling unit.

show abstract

Section: Comparison Of Our Results With Those Of Similar Studiesmentioning

confidence: 89%

Section: Comparison Of Simulation Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Study Areamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Input Specific To 10-year Continuous Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Role of Neighborhood Design in Reducing Impacts of Development and Climate Change, West Sherwood, OR

Tchintcharauli-Harrison

Santelmann

Greydanus

et al. 2022

Front. Water

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

Landscape sensitivity-based scenario analysis using flus model: a case of Asarsuyu watershed

Şenik

Kaya

2021

Landscape Ecol Eng

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The landscape is a dynamic and multidimensional concept which includes natural and/or cultural components, ecosystems, relations and processes. The sustainability of landscapes depends on the harmony of these ecosystems. Particularly, it is important to identify areas where the landscape is sensitive within the basin and to restrict urban growth in these areas. However, the land cover change that occurs in the form of transformation from natural areas to cultural areas undermines the operability of the processes within the landscape. In this study, two different scenarios regarding land cover change have been developed using the FLUS model for Asarsuyu Watershed between the years 2018-2036 and 2036-2054. With these scenarios, the areas where landscape is sensitive are revealed and the urban growth is restricted in areas where landscape sensitivity is very high and high. In this respect, landscape sensitivity studies provide an important tool for guiding urban growth in an ecological framework.

show abstract

Integrated evaluation and attribution of urban flood risk mitigation capacity: A case of Zhengzhou, China

Dai,

Shen,

Cheng

et al. 2023

Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Modeling the impact of development policies and climate on suburban watershed hydrology near Portland, Oregon

Cited by 12 publications

References 35 publications

Role of Neighborhood Design in Reducing Impacts of Development and Climate Change, West Sherwood, OR

Role of Neighborhood Design in Reducing Impacts of Development and Climate Change, West Sherwood, OR

Landscape sensitivity-based scenario analysis using flus model: a case of Asarsuyu watershed

Integrated evaluation and attribution of urban flood risk mitigation capacity: A case of Zhengzhou, China

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About