Modeling the Impacts of Coastal Land Use Scenarios on Ecosystem Services Restoration in Southwest Ghana, West Africa

Abstract

Urbanization is a key driver of coastal habitats degradation in West Africa. Habitat restoration is strongly advocated to mitigate urbanization impacts in West African coastal areas. However, knowledge on the application of scenarios to envision land use patterns and ecosystem services (ES) supply in this region is still lacking in scientific literature. In this study, we applied land use scenario modelling to provide recommendations for habitat restoration planning and associated ES supply in coastal socio-ecological systems. Specifically, four land use scenarios (Urbanization Scenario (UBS), Urban Greening Scenario (UGS), Plantation Agriculture Scenario (PLAS) and Landscape Restoration (LRS)) were developed for the coastal zone of Southwest Ghana. Their impacts on land use patterns and ES (food, fuelwood, carbon sequestration and recreation benefit) were assessed and visualized by integrating benefits transfer and experts’ knowledge into a spatially explicit modelling platform. The simulated results showed that UBS would decrease the supply of food, fuelwood, carbon sequestration and recreation benefits in the region. LRS would create negative synergies between food and carbon sequestration but this relationship reversed to positive synergies with future intensification of restoration. Our findings also showed that LRS could lead to expansion of mixed swamp forests, no change in the spatial extent of palm swamp forests and decline of mangrove swamps. On this basis, we recommend planning regulations which target swamp forests in the region for enhanced protection and restoration in order to safeguard these critical coastal habitats and avert their future degradation due to urbanization.