Modeling the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Inundation in Flood-Prone Urban Areas of Hampton Roads, Virginia

Castrucci, Luca; Tahvildari, Navid

doi:10.4031/mtsj.52.2.11

Cited by 19 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…For example, using WAVEWATCH III, TOPEX/Poseidon altimetry tide model data and atmospheric forcing physically downscaled using Delft3D-WAVE and Delft3D-FLOW in what they call the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS), Vitousek et al (2017) were able to detect local inundation hazards (at a scale of hundreds of metres) across regions along the Californian coast. Similarly, Castrucci and Tahvildari (2018) simulated the impact of SLR along the Mid-Atlantic region in the USA. A study for the Maldives shows that the contribution of wave setup is essential to estimate flood risks (Wadey et al, 2017).…”

Section: Local Coastal Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

2022

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

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This chapter assesses past and future contributions to global, regional and extreme sea level changes, associated risk to low-lying islands, coasts, cities, and settlements, and response options and pathways to resilience and sustainable development along the coast. ObservationsGlobal mean sea level (GMSL) is rising (virtually certain 1 ) and accelerating (high confidence 2 ). The sum of glacier and ice sheet contributions is now the dominant source of GMSL rise (very high confidence). GMSL from tide gauges and altimetry observations increased from 1.4 mm yr -1 over the period 1901-1990 to 2.1 mm yr -1 over the period 1970-2015 to 3.2 mm yr -1 over the period 1993-2015 to 3.6 mm yr -1 over the period 2006-2015 (high confidence). The dominant cause of GMSL rise since 1970 is anthropogenic forcing (high confidence). {4.2.2.1.1, 4.2.2.2} GMSL was considerably higher than today during past climate states that were warmer than pre-industrial, including the Last Interglacial (LIG; 129-116 ka), when global mean surface temperature was 0.5ºC-1.0ºC warmer, and the mid-Pliocene Warm Period (mPWP; ~3.3 to 3.0 million years ago), 2ºC-4ºC warmer. Despite the modest global warmth of the Last Interglacial, GMSL was likely 6-9 m higher, mainly due to contributions from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS, respectively), and unlikely more than 10m higher (medium confidence). Based on new understanding about geological constraints since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5), 25 m is a plausible upper bound on GMSL during the mPWP (low confidence). Ongoing uncertainties in palaeo sea level reconstructions and modelling hamper conclusions regarding the total magnitudes and rates of past sea level rise (SLR). Furthermore, the long (multi-millennial) time scales of these past climate and sea level changes, and regional climate influences from changes in Earth's orbital configuration and climate system feedbacks, lead to low confidence in direct comparisons with near-term future changes. {Cross-Chapter Box 5 in Chapter 1, 4.

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Section: Local Coastal Sea Levelmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

2022

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate

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“…Numerical analyses would be necessary for project-specific computations. Castrucci and Tahvildari (2018) performed hydrodynamic modeling using Delft3D (an open source software developed by Deltares, an indepenent institute for applied research available at deltares.nl/en/) to study the vulnerability of critical flood-prone neighborhoods in the Hampton Roads area. One location was the same Hague neighborhood (Figure 2) noted above located about 0.4 miles northwest of the Brooke Avenue gate.…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of the Duration of Coastal Flooding on Infrastructure

Pezza

White

2020

Public Works Management & Policy

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Coastal communities are experiencing a gradual increase in flooding. Studies focus on the extent and depth of how coastal flooding will change as sea levels rise and impacts on infrastructure needed for risk assessments. However, there is limited information on how the duration of coastal flooding will change; specifically, in a format needed to support risk assessments. Therefore, the objective of this article is to highlight the need for annual exceedance probability curves by examining potential impacts on infrastructure in the city of Norfolk, Virginia. The analysis translates tide data to simulate stationarity and combines it with increments of rising sea levels to represent future tide elevations. The authors use a Poisson probability distribution to calculate flood duration exceedance levels for a specified threshold level and estimate how durations and probabilities could change over time. The article concludes with an assessment of how increasing flood durations can impact infrastructure systems.

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“…For estimates of stormwater network inundation across a large area, static inundation (“bathtub”) models that use a digital elevation model (DEM) to estimate inundation at discrete water levels may serve as useful tools for managers. Static inundation models have limitations, such as over‐estimating flooding extent relative to hydrodynamic models because they do not incorporate surface hydrodynamics such as friction (Castrucci & Tahvildari, 2018; Gallien et al., 2014), but their simplicity makes them well‐suited for use as a diagnostic tool at large spatial scales.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Inundation of Stormwater Infrastructure Is Common and Increases Risk of Flooding in Coastal Urban Areas Along the US Atlantic Coast

et al. 2022

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Stormwater infrastructure can manage precipitation‐driven flooding when there are no obstructions to draining. Coastal areas increasingly experience recurrent flooding due to elevated water levels from storms or tides, but the inundation of coastal stormwater infrastructure by elevated water levels has not been broadly assessed. We conservatively estimated stormwater infrastructure inundation in municipalities along the Atlantic United States coast by using areas of high‐tide flooding (HTF) on roads as a proxy. We also modeled stormwater infrastructure inundation in four North Carolina municipalities and measured infrastructure inundation in one of the modeled municipalities. Combining methodologies at different scales provides context and allows the scope of stormwater infrastructure inundation to be broadly estimated. We found 137 census‐designated urban areas along the Atlantic coast with road area impacted by HTF, with a median percent of total road area subject to HTF of 0.16% (IQR: 0.02%–0.53%). Based on 2010 census block data, the median number of people per urban area that live in census blocks with HTF on roads was 1,622 (IQR: 366–5,779). In total, we estimate that over 2 million people live in census blocks where HTF occurs on roadways along the US Atlantic coast. Modeling results and water level measurements indicated that extensive inundation of underground stormwater infrastructure likely occurs at water levels within the mean tidal range. These results suggest that stormwater infrastructure inundation along the US Atlantic coast is likely widespread, affects a large number of people, occurs frequently, and increases the occurrence of urban flooding.

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Modeling the Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Storm Surge Inundation in Flood-Prone Urban Areas of Hampton Roads, Virginia

Cited by 19 publications

References 19 publications

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

Sea Level Rise and Implications for Low-Lying Islands, Coasts and Communities

Impact of the Duration of Coastal Flooding on Infrastructure

Inundation of Stormwater Infrastructure Is Common and Increases Risk of Flooding in Coastal Urban Areas Along the US Atlantic Coast

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