Modeling the infrastructure dynamics of China -- Water, agriculture, energy, and greenhouse gases

Conrad, Stephen H.; Drennen, Thomas E.; Engi, D.; Harris, Dave; Jeppesen, D.M.; Thomas, Reeba

doi:10.2172/676941

Cited by 7 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 1 publication

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…A tangential analysis to our own by Zhongyuan et al (2002) estimated that by 2020 China will have between 71.6 and 99.46 million cars (measured as "automobiles"). Conrad et al (1998) assume that as a percentage of GDP, by 2025 the transport sector will increase only slightly, from 5.6% to 6%. However, based on assumptions about declining energy intensities and continued economic growth, their model estimates oil consumption for the transportation sector to increase from 0.53 mbbls/day in 1995 to 2.8 mbbls/day by 2015 and 4.8 mbbls/day by 2025.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The OECD estimates of Maddison (1998) assume China's gross domestic products (GDP) growth rate to slow to an annual average of 5.5%. Others include a 6.5% estimate from Ho et al (1998), and a 7.5% assumption of Conrad et al (1998). These pre-WTO estimates may be further magnified by China's formal accession to the World Trade Organization in November 2001.…”

Section: B Real Income Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Second, as a net importer of oil since 1993, automobile growth will continue to increase China's oil import demand. A study by Sandia National Laboratories (see Conrad et al, 1998;Drennen and Erickson, 1998) forecasts that China's total oil import requirements could rival current U.S. imports, reaching as high as 7.1-8.1 million barrels per day (mbbls/day) by 2015. Lacking proven domestic reserves, the China National Petroleum Corporation has begun to secure oil concessions in Sudan, Venezuela, Iraq, and Kazakhstan and develop oil and gas pipelines from Russia and Central Asia to China (Rashid and Saywell, 1998).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

Kobos¹,

Erickson²,

Drennen

2003

Contemporary Economic Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

This article reports on a simulation and scenario analysis of Chinese passenger vehicle growth and resulting energy demand and CO 2 emissions. The model includes provincial level logistic growth functions with saturation levels representative of neighboring Asian economies, income growth measured in international dollars, and both estimated and literature-based income elasticities. Scenarios explore variation in key parameters, including income and population growth rates, elasticity income ranges, fuel economy, and vehicle saturation. Countrywide base case results estimate growth from 4.22 to 54.33 passenger vehicles per thousand people from 1995 to 2025. Resulting passenger vehicle oil demands and CO 2 emissions increase nearly 17-fold. (JEL R40, Q40, N70) * This is a revision of a paper presented at

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: B Real Income Growthmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

Kobos¹,

Erickson²,

Drennen

2003

Contemporary Economic Policy

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…One implication of the Liu result is potential gains exist from intra-regional water reallocations. Other studies examine the effect of trade on water scarcity (see Brown and Halweil, 1998;Conrad et al, 1998;Yang and Zehnder, 2001). The trade-based studies set a grain output goal for a region, or the country, and assess whether there is enough water to produce the desired level of output.…”

Section: A Competitive Equilibrium With Centrally Planned Water Allocmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water shortages, intersectoral water allocation and economic growth: the case of China

Fang

Roe²,

Smith³

2015

China Agricultural Economic Review

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to investigate the economic impacts of intra- and inter-regional water reallocation on sectoral transformation and economic growth. Design/methodology/approach – A multi-sector, Ramsey-type growth model is fit to Chinese data and used to perform policy experiments. Findings – An intra-regional water reallocation increases per capita gross domestic product (GDP) by about 1.5 percent per year over the period 2000-2060. The aggregate potential welfare gain due to this reallocation is 1002.51 billion RMB. Transferring water from southern to northern China via the South-North Water Transfer Project, on average, has a negligible impact on per capita GDP over the period 2000-2060, but aggregate welfare increases by 557.23 billion RMB. Combining intra-regional and inter-regional water reallocations, on average, increases per capita GDP by 0.38 percent per year over the period and the aggregate welfare gain from this combination is 1148.06 billion RMB. Each policy scenario has implications for long-run regional production patterns: In an intra-regional reallocation scenario, Southern China produces almost 70 percent of aggregate GDP, in the inter-regional transfer it produces 58 percent of aggregate GDP, while in a combined intra/inter-regional reallocation it produces 55 percent of aggregate GDP. Originality/value – This analysis can serve as a template for developing a useful planning tool that one can fit to national or regional data and use to examine a variety of policy relevant questions.

show abstract

“…Cars are the consumer products with the greatest environmental impact. Apart from resource depletion-one forecast (Conrad et al 1998) foresees Chinese oil imports rivalling those of the US by 2015-the impact on local air quality in these countries is clearly a cause for concern locally. However, the impact in terms of CO 2 emissions is of global concern and therefore the focus of this paper.…”

Section: Can China Reduce Co 2 Emissions From Cars?mentioning

confidence: 99%

Can China Reduce CO<SUB>2</SUB> Emissions from Cars?

Nieuwenhuis¹,

Zapata²

2005

Greener Management International

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

As the world faces increasingly disparate challenges, science is subjected to increasingly vehement demands from a society calling for transparency, openness and public participation in science policy. Science is going through an evolutionary processperhaps the most painful process it has ever encountered.Research on the interfaces between science and society is a burgeoning area. A new conception of knowledge now appears to be emerging, based on the awareness of complexity, uncertainty and a plurality of legitimate perspectives and interests. Democracy is extending into the previously quite exclusive scientific realm, and science must now submit to public scrutiny and participation in the governance of knowledge. This book provides much-needed reflections on the methods and tools for knowledge quality assurance, particularly on its inputs to extended policy and decision-making processes.Science and policy interfaces are dynamic processes needing to permanently redefine themselves and their roles. This book contributes to the enrichment and deepening of our understanding of these important new trends in the social relations of science, which are fundamental to our understanding of the prospects for further progress.The book will be essential reading for scientists, policy-makers, managers and the public. order online and save 10%China's car and truck market is growing at a dramatic pace. In 2004 alone, some 5,028,808 vehicles were sold in China. Of these nearly half were cars, virtually all locally produced. This represents a 27% increase over 2003; however, it follows growth rates of 24% and 36% in 2002 and 2003 respectively. The environmental implications-particularly in terms of CO 2 emissions-of this rapid growth in motorisation and of China's future potential scale as a car market (it is already the third largest car market) have been widely discussed in environmental and policy circles.This paper considers two technologies-diesel and petrol-electric hybrid-and assesses the CO 2 reductions that could be achieved by using these under a number of different scenarios. The paper takes current Chinese policies into account and considers these issues in the context of EU agreed limits (140 g/km) and proposed limits (120 g/km). The paper draws comparisons with the Japanese and Korean minicar strategies and assesses possible benefits for China in adopting a similar strategy.

show abstract

Modeling the infrastructure dynamics of China -- Water, agriculture, energy, and greenhouse gases

Cited by 7 publications

References 1 publication

Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

Scenario Analysis of Chinese Passenger Vehicle Growth

Water shortages, intersectoral water allocation and economic growth: the case of China

Can China Reduce CO<SUB>2</SUB> Emissions from Cars?

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About