Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes

Önel, Gülcan; Utkulu, Utku

doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2006.03.006

Cited by 30 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 26 publications

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“…The finding is that the solvency conditions are satisfied in Asian countries except the Philippines, but not in the debt-laden Latin American countries. Following the analysis of Sawada (1994), Ӧnel and Utkulu (2006) allow for the possible structural break that may be due to the economic crisis in Turkey. The result shows the Turkish external debt is weakly sustainable in the long run whether the structural breaks are considered or not.…”

Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression

Lin¹

2014

RWE

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This paper will investigate the sustainability of external debt for 21 OECD countries. We modify the solvency condition in an open economy derived by Sawada (1994). The quantile autoregression (QAR) model is applied to test the stationary property of the net external surplus process. The empirical results show that at each quantitle, the net external surplus process is stationary for six countries. It reveals a unit root behavior for the US at each quantile. However, there is a varied behavior across different quantiles for 14 countries. It indicates the asymmetric dynamic behavior of the net external surplus process.

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Section: Literature Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression

Lin¹

2014

RWE

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“…Unit root and cointegration tests provide useful tools for implication of a government's or nation's intertemporal solvency. These tests determine whether a government or country is able to sustain its budget or external deficits without defaulting on its debt (Önel and Utkulu, 2006). In this point, Diebold and Rudebusch(1991) and Sowell(1990) argue that conventional unit root tests may have low power against fractional alternatives.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Following the methodology of Hakkio and Rush(1991), Utkulu(1998) examines the long run tendency of the Turkish exports and imports and finds no evidence of cointegration between exports and imports implying that the external debt of Turkey is not sustainable. Önel and Utkulu(2006) investigate the external debt sustainability in Turkey by using usual intertemporal budget constraint in the contexts with and without structural breaks. They conclude that Turkish external debt is weakly sustainable.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Sustainability of Turkish External Debt: Evidence from Fractionally Integrated Approach Under Structural Breaks

Kiran

2012

Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja

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This paper examines the external debt sustainability in Turkey over the period 1970-2010 by using fractionally integrated approach. As a first step, possible structural breaks in the data are not taken into consideration. The findings from Robinson(1994a) test reveal that the process is non-stationary with long memory, therefore, there is no evidence of external debt sustainability in Turkey. In the second step, structural breaks identified by Perron (1998, 2003)

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“…Eşitlikte yer alan X ve M değerleri başlangıçta durağan değillerdir, fakat bu değerlerin birinci farkları alındıktan sonra, durağan hale gelmektedirler. X ve M değerlerinin "Random Walks With Drift" (birikimli tesadüfi yürüyüş) sürecini izledikleri varsayımı yapılarak, şu şekilde belirtilebilir (Önel ve Utkulu, 2006: 670);…”

Section: Ekonometrik Modelunclassified

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği: Eşbütünleşme Analizi

Çukurçayir¹

2014

Sosyoekonomi

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External barrowing has a special position in economy of a country in terms of both its structure and reasons of taking. For this reason, that external sources which are transferred into economy via external barrowing during political decision making process should be used effectively and efficiently requires importance. In this sense, the aim of this research is to evaluate the possible effects of external loans on economies of the countries and to explain the sustainability of external loans in Turkey with the help of analysis of cointegration based on time series. In this regard, as a result of analysis and methods which is the framework of the model proposed by Sawada and Hakkio & Rush used in study, it has been concluded that provided the ability to repay foreign debt condition, between the years of 1980-2010 in Turkey's economy.

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Modeling the long-run sustainability of Turkish external debt with structural changes

Cited by 30 publications

References 26 publications

The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression

The Sustainability of External Debt in OECD Countries: Evidence from Quantile Autoregression

The Sustainability of Turkish External Debt: Evidence from Fractionally Integrated Approach Under Structural Breaks

Türkiye Ekonomisinde Dış Borçların Sürdürülebilirliği: Eşbütünleşme Analizi

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