Modeling the long-term effect of climate change on building heat demand: Case study on a district level

Andrić, Ivan; Gomes, Nuno Miguel Pereira; Pina, André; Ferrão, Paulo; Fournier, J.; Lacarrière, Bruno; Corre, Olivier Le

doi:10.1016/j.enbuild.2016.04.082

Cited by 58 publications

(30 citation statements)

References 31 publications

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“…Analysing the literature on that topic, it was observed that generally the energy performance of buildings, aimed at the future projection of energy consumption was carried out using dynamic simulation. In many papers [6,9,16] the simulation was performed using leading software (e.g., TRNSYS, EnergyPlus); in other projects the simulation was performed by calculation procedures developed in-house, [7,[42][43][44] validating those outcomes by a direct comparison with the aforementioned tools.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Climate Change Affects the Building Energy Consumptions Due to Cooling, Heating, and Electricity Demands of Italian Residential Sector

Mancini

Basso

2020

Energies

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Climate change affects the buildings’ performance, significantly influencing energy consumption, as well as the indoor thermal comfort. As a consequence, the growing outdoor environmental temperatures entail a slight reduction in heating consumption and an increase in cooling consumption, with different overall effects depending on the latitudes. This document focuses attention on the Italian residential sector, considering the current and reduced meteorological data, in anticipation of future climate scenarios. According to a sample of 419 buildings, referring to the climatic conditions of Milan, Florence, Rome, and Naples, the heating and cooling needs are calculated by a simplified dynamic model, in current and future conditions. The effects of the simplest climate adaptation measure, represented by the introduction of new air conditioners, have been also evaluated. The simulations results show an important reduction in complex energy consumption (Milan −6%, Florence −22%, Rome −25%, Naples −30%), due to the greater incidence of heating demand in the Italian context. However, the increase in air conditioning electrical consumption over the hot season (Milan +11%, Florence +20%, Rome +19%, Naples +16%) can play a critical role for the electrical system; for that reason, the introduction of photovoltaic arrays as a compensatory measure have been analysed.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

How Climate Change Affects the Building Energy Consumptions Due to Cooling, Heating, and Electricity Demands of Italian Residential Sector

Mancini

Basso

2020

Energies

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“…Vulnerability of the cogeneration power plants to the change of the load or climate conditions is known [9,10]. However, there is lack of regional studies of this effect considering the projected climate change.…”

Section: Space Heating In Transition: Technological Perspectivementioning

confidence: 99%

Efficiency of Space Heating Systems under the Climate Change

2019

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Impacts of the climate change on the space heating systems are discussed. We have used the latest global temperature data of the Global Climate Historical Network to demonstrate that the heating and cooling demand combined is decreasing in the world regions with boreal and moderate climate conditions almost everywhere. A simulation approach was developed to assess the impact of the climate change of the efficiency of a modern binary-cycle cogeneration power plant. Both statistical parameters of the air temperature and the thermal circuit of the power plant were modeled in details. It was found that even for a quite optimistic climate scenario the annual efficiency decrease may be as high as 1-2%. This means that careful consideration of the climate-related heating load dynamics is of key importance by implementation and renovation of the district heating systems.

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“…This approach consists of using computer-based tools to model and analyze building energy consumption, under different climate boundary conditions [29][30]. A recent study employed EnergyPlus to estimate building energy consumption, on a district level, under future climate sc enarios; however, this analysis was focused on one building model only, a small office [31]. A multi-city study used EnergyPlus to understand the impacts of climate change in building energy use in in Miami, Baltimore and Boston [32].…”

Section: Literature Review and Previous Workmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling County-Level Energy Demands for Commercial Buildings due to Climate Variability with Prototype Building Simulations

Mendoza¹,

Bianchi²,

Thomas³

et al. 2019

Preprint

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The building sector accounts for nearly 40% of total primary energy consumption in the U.S. and E.U. and 20% of worldwide delivered energy consumption. Climate projections predict an increase of average annual temperatures between 1.1-5.4°C by 2100. As urbanization is expected to continue increasing at a rapid pace, the energy consumption of buildings is likely to play a pivotal role in the overall energy budget. In this study we used EnergyPlus building energy models to estimate the future energy demands of commercial buildings in Salt Lake County, Utah, USA, using locally-derived climate projections. We found significant variability in the energy demand profiles when simulating the study buildings under different climate scenarios, based on the energy standard the building was designed to meet, with reductions ranging from 10% to 60% in natural gas consumption for heating and increases ranging from 10% to 30% in electricity consumption for cooling. A case study, using projected 2040 building stock, showed a weighted average decrease in heating energy of 25% and an increase of 15% in cooling energy. We also found that building standards between ASHRAE 90.1-2004 and 90.1-2016 play a comparatively smaller role than variation in climate scenarios on the energy demand variability within building types. Our findings underscore the large range of potential future building energy consumption which depend on climatic conditions, as well as building types and standards.

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Modeling the long-term effect of climate change on building heat demand: Case study on a district level

Cited by 58 publications

References 31 publications

How Climate Change Affects the Building Energy Consumptions Due to Cooling, Heating, and Electricity Demands of Italian Residential Sector

How Climate Change Affects the Building Energy Consumptions Due to Cooling, Heating, and Electricity Demands of Italian Residential Sector

Efficiency of Space Heating Systems under the Climate Change

Modeling County-Level Energy Demands for Commercial Buildings due to Climate Variability with Prototype Building Simulations

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