Modeling the pandemic trend of 2019 Coronavirus with optimal control analysis

Fatima, Bi Bi; Zaman, Gul; Alqudah, Manar A.; Abdeljawad, Thabet

doi:10.1016/j.rinp.2020.103660

Cited by 8 publications

(10 citation statements)

References 19 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…So, the single most effective way to restrict the spread of a disease is to create quarantine to decrease the mobility of individuals. If we choose the same parameter values and the same initial values of the classical model (see Fatima et al 1 ) as in Table 2 , then the basic reproduction number

1

where

000181

. Thus, we get the results shown in Figures 4 , 5 , 6 .…”

Section: Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

A fractional‐order mathematical model for analyzing the pandemic trend of COVID‐19

Agarwal

Ramadan

Rageh

et al. 2021

Math Methods in App Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Many countries worldwide have been affected by the outbreak of the novel coronavirus (COVID‐19) that was first reported in China. To understand and forecast the transmission dynamics of this disease, fractional‐order derivative‐based modeling can be beneficial. We propose in this paper a fractional‐order mathematical model to examine the COVID‐19 disease outbreak. This model outlines the multiple mechanisms of transmission within the dynamics of infection. The basic reproduction number and the equilibrium points are calculated from the model to assess the transmissibility of the COVID‐19. Sensitivity analysis is discussed to explain the significance of the epidemic parameters. The existence and uniqueness of the solution to the proposed model have been proven using the fixed‐point theorem and by helping the Arzela–Ascoli theorem. Using the predictor–corrector algorithm, we approximated the solution of the proposed model. The results obtained are represented by using figures that illustrate the behavior of the predicted model classes. Finally, the study of the stability of the numerical method is carried out using some results and primary lemmas.

show abstract

1

where

000181

. Thus, we get the results shown in Figures 4 , 5 , 6 .…”

Section: Numerical Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical models are a significant and efficient way to comprehend epidemic transmission dynamics. 1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 , 7 , 8 , 9 These models can be helping predict disease transmission and thus help decision makers in planning and make necessary decisions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A fractional‐order mathematical model for analyzing the pandemic trend of COVID‐19

Agarwal

Ramadan

Rageh

et al. 2021

Math Methods in App Sciences

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…These are compartmental models, in which the population is separated into groups based on the stage of the infectious disease in their bodies. In recent years, SEIR models combined with optimal control techniques have proven to be an effective tool in controlling the spread of infectious diseases (Pinho and Nogueira (2017) [5], Fatima et al (2021) [6], Deressa and Duressa (2021) [7]).…”

Section: Inroductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Control optimal analysis of SEIR model of covid 19 spread in Indonesia

Rangkuti

Firmansyah

Landong

2022

J. Phys.: Conf. Ser.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

In this paper we use optimal control techniques, SEIR model of Covid 19 in case Indonesia, in order to establish vaccination, personal protective measures and treatment plans to control the spread of an infectious disease. We validate them by the use of the Maximum Principle. The findings revealed that the best practice of combining all three intervention measures considerably reduces the proportion of people who are exposed and symptomatic, as well as those who are asymptomatic.

show abstract

“…In addition, a novel analysis was proposed that includes a strength number that accounts for the accelerative information of nonlinear and linear parts of a specific epidemiological model [8] . The authors in [9] have constructed and analysed a non-autonomous differential equation model by introducing medical mask, isolation, treatment, and detergent spray as time-dependent controls. Global parameter sensitivity analysis for a new COVID-19 differential equation model is carried out in the work of Ali and co-authors [10] .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19

et al. 2022

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Cost-effectiveness analysis is a mode of determining both the cost and economic health outcomes of one or more control interventions. In this work, we have formulated a non-autonomous nonlinear deterministic model to study the control of COVID-19 to unravel the cost and economic health outcomes for the autonomous nonlinear model proposed for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We calculated the strength number and noticed the strength number is less than zero, meaning the proposed model does not capture multiple waves, hence to capture multiple wave new compartmental model may require for the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. We proposed an optimal control problem based on a previously studied model and proved the existence of the proposed optimal control model. The optimality system associated with the non-autonomous epidemic model is derived using Pontryagin’s maximum principle. The optimal control model captures four time-dependent control functions, thus, -practising physical or social distancing protocols; -practising personal hygiene by cleaning contaminated surfaces with alcohol-based detergents; -practising proper and safety measures by exposed, asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals; -fumigating schools in all levels of education, sports facilities, commercial areas and religious worship centres. We have performed numerical simulations to investigate extensive cost-effectiveness analysis for fourteen optimal control strategies. Comparing the control strategies, we noticed that; Strategy 1 (practising physical or social distancing protocols) is the most cost-saving and most effective control intervention in Saudi Arabia in the absence of vaccination. But, in terms of the infection averted, we saw that strategy 6, strategy 11, strategy 12, and strategy 14 are just as good in controlling COVID-19.

show abstract

Modeling the pandemic trend of 2019 Coronavirus with optimal control analysis

Cited by 8 publications

References 19 publications

A fractional‐order mathematical model for analyzing the pandemic trend of COVID‐19

A fractional‐order mathematical model for analyzing the pandemic trend of COVID‐19

Control optimal analysis of SEIR model of covid 19 spread in Indonesia

Optimal control and comprehensive cost-effectiveness analysis for COVID-19

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About