Modeling the performance impacts caused by an earthquake to the construction industry: Case study on the 2010 Chile earthquake

Abstract

Natural disasters affect the construction industry in many ways other than the direct damages. This paper presents a model that evaluates the performance impacts caused by an earthquake to the construction industry by using the 2010 Chilean earthquake as case study. The main variables affected by a seismic event in construction companies and their relationships were modeled by means of the use of Partial Least Square (PLS). The modeling framework was developed by interviewing CEOs of construction companies located in areas affected by the earthquake. Then, a model of interrelationships, which would explain how variables are affected by an earthquake was developed. The main findings showed that when a severe telluric event occurs, the two most affected factors were Relationship with the Owner/Clients and Image, while the most affected indexes were Owner/Client Satisfaction and Financial Situation. Thus, this research emphasizes the importance of these four variables (factors and indexes), when the construction industry faces a large earthquake.Key words: Modeling, Partial Least Squares (PLS), earthquake, construction industry, Chile. ResumenLos desastres naturales afectan a la industria de la construcción de muchas maneras distintas más allá de los daños directos. Este artículo presenta un modelo que evalúa los impactos en el desempeño, causados por un terremoto a la industria de la construcción, utilizando el terremoto ocurrido en Chile el año 2010 como caso de estudio. Se modelaron las principales variables afectadas por un evento sísmico en las empresas constructoras y sus relaciones, por medio del uso de Mínimos Cuadrados Parciales. El marco bajo el cual se desarrolló la modelización, fue mediante entrevistas a directores generales de empresas constructoras, ubicadas en zonas afectadas por el terremoto. Luego, se desarrolló un modelo de interrelaciones que explicaría cómo las variables se ven afectadas por un terremoto. Los principales hallazgos muestran que cuando se produce un evento telúrico severo, los dos factores más afectados son Relación con el Mandante/Cliente e Imagen, mientras que los índices más afectados fueron Satisfacción del Mandante/Cliente y Situación Financiera. Por lo tanto, esta investigación destaca la importancia de estas cuatro variables (factores e índices), cuando la industria de la construcción se ve enfrentada a un terremoto de gran magnitud.

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