Modeling the Political Economy and Multidimensional Factors of COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria

Ajide, Kazeem Bello; Alimi, Olorunfemi Yasiru; Ibrahim, Ridwan Lanre; Nwokolo, Ifeoma Chinenye

doi:10.1007/s41996-020-00070-1

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…The emergence of COVID-19 posed serious threat to global economy. As a result, it received significant attention from international community, health policy experts and academic researchers, who mainly channelled efforts at understanding the characteristics, causes and impacts of the virus (Ajide et al 2020a ). Consequently, many of the available studies on COVID-19 focus on mortality, causative factors and prevalence factors, among others.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Also, Nwozor et al ( 2020 ) discuss the health dangers of the deportation of Almajirai (nomadic Islamic school pupils) from their states as part of efforts to contain COVID-19. Furthermore, Ajide et al ( 2020a ) investigate the effects of political economy and ethno-religious factors on COVID-19 cases in Nigeria. Ajide et al ( 2020b ) look at the impact of the lockdown orchestrated by the COVID-19.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Examining the Views and Opinions of Itinerary Traders on Adherence to COVID-19 Lockdown in Enugu State, Nigeria

Asogwa

Ajah

Okpa

et al. 2023

Fudan J. Hum. Soc. Sci.

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The outbreak of COVID-19 caused human activities to be affected in one way or another. As a result, measures were put in place by various national governments to reduce the spread of the virus. This paper examines adherence to COVID-19 guidelines in Nigeria among itinerant traders, using a total of 40 eligible participants from selected local governments in Enugu state, Nigeria. The study adapted purposive sampling techniques to identify eligible participants; while in-depth interview was the method used for data collection. Among other findings, result shows that the control measures rolled out by government were seriously undermined. Nomadic traders, driven by economic gains, played covert role in the spread of the virus. This signalled a weak link in the efforts to curb the spread of the virus in Nigeria. The study contributes to a more exact diagnosis of the weak link in the efforts to contain the spread of the virus and how the quest for economic gains drove the abuse of COVID-19 mitigation protocols with its attendant health implications. It therefore recommends that government should strengthen the institutional capacity for detection and control, and provide the critical infrastructural facilities that will make for intensified surveillance in future epidemic or pandemic outbreak. Economic incentives and the effective monitoring of protocol enforcers saddled with the responsibility of enforcing government directives are also encouraged in order to curb compromise.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Examining the Views and Opinions of Itinerary Traders on Adherence to COVID-19 Lockdown in Enugu State, Nigeria

Asogwa

Ajah

Okpa

et al. 2023

Fudan J. Hum. Soc. Sci.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Lockdown and its impact on infection before and after lockdown measures were studied in many recent literature [ 12 – 15 ] with various modeling framework with some modifications of the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model. In addition, some literature also applied econometric techniques to estimate the impact of easing or enforcing lockdown such as Ibrahim et al and Ajide [ 16 , 17 ]. On the other hand, a handful of literature observed the economic costs of lockdown [ 18 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Effect of easing lockdown and restriction measures on COVID-19 epidemic projection: A case study of Saudi Arabia

et al. 2021

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Objectives In this study we compared two predictions of COVID-19 cases in the Kingdom Saudi Arabia (KSA) using pre–and post–relaxation of lockdown period data to provide an insight regarding rational exit strategies. We also applied these projections to understand economic costs versus health benefit of lockdown measures. Methods We analyzed open access data on COVID-19 cases from March 6 to January 16, 2021 in the KSA. To understand the epidemic projection during the pre- and post-lockdown period, we used two types of modeling: the SIR model, and the time series model. We also estimated the costs and benefits of lockdown- QALY gained compared to the costs of lockdown considering the payment threshold of the Government. Results Prediction using lockdown period data suggested that the epidemic might slow down significantly after 109 thousand cases and end on October 6, 2020. However, analysis with latest data after easing lockdown measures suggested that epidemic might be close to an end on October 28, 2021 with 358 thousand cases. The peak has also been shifted from May 18, 2020 to Jun 24, 2020. While earlier model predicted a steady growth in mid-June, the revised model with latest data predicted it in mid-August. In addition, we estimated that 4986 lives would have been saved if lockdown continued but the cost per life saved would be more than $378 thousand, which is way above not only the KSA threshold, but also the threshold of any other highly advanced economies such as the UK and the USA. Conclusions Our results suggest that relaxation of lockdown measures negatively impacts the epidemic. However, considering the negative impact of prolong lockdown measures on health and economy, countries must decide on the best timing and strategy to exit from such measures to safely return to normal life with minimum loss of lives and economy considering its economic and health systems’ capacity. Instead of focusing only on health, a balanced approach taking economy under consideration is recommended.

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Income inequality, human capital and terrorism in Africa: Beyond exploratory analytics

Ajide

Alimi

2021

International Economics

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Modeling the Political Economy and Multidimensional Factors of COVID-19 Cases in Nigeria

Cited by 3 publications

References 25 publications

Examining the Views and Opinions of Itinerary Traders on Adherence to COVID-19 Lockdown in Enugu State, Nigeria

Examining the Views and Opinions of Itinerary Traders on Adherence to COVID-19 Lockdown in Enugu State, Nigeria

Effect of easing lockdown and restriction measures on COVID-19 epidemic projection: A case study of Saudi Arabia

Income inequality, human capital and terrorism in Africa: Beyond exploratory analytics

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