Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market

Djurdjevic, Smilja; P, Lee; Weitkunat, Rolf; Sponsiello-Wang, Zheng; Lüdicke, Frank; Baker, Gizelle

doi:10.3390/healthcare6020047

Cited by 17 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 11 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…The results suggest that the introduction of THS in the U.S. has the potential to result in adoption by adult smokers who would otherwise continue to smoke cigarettes. On the basis of this adoption rate, this could benefit public health by having a positive impact on this particular population of adult smokers 69 . In particular, the results indicate that the adoption of THS is unlikely to result in an increase of tobacco consumption.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System by U.S. adult smokers: An actual use study

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: This was a pre-market actual use study with the Tobacco Heating System (THS), a candidate modified risk tobacco product, conducted with adult smokers in eight cities in the United States. The main goal of the study was to describe THS adoption in a real-world setting. The aim of this analysis was to identify potential predictors for adoption of THS using stepwise logistic regression method. Methods: This actual use study was an observational study assessing self-reported stick-by-stick consumption of the THS product compared with the use of commercial cigarettes over six weeks. The study aimed at replicating the usage of THS in real-world conditions with participants being able to consume cigarettes, THS, and any other nicotine-containing products (e.g., e-cigarettes, cigars, etc.) ad libitum. Results: 14.6% of participants adopted THS, which comprised 70% or more of their total tobacco consumption by the end of the observational period (in Week 6). The main predictors of adoption were the liking of the smell, taste, aftertaste, and ease of use of THS. The proportion of adoption was higher in participants aged 44 years and older and in Hispanic or Latino adult smokers. Additionally, adoption of THS was more likely in participants who had never attempted to quit smoking and in participants who smoked up to 10 cigarettes per day. Finally, the adoption of THS was higher in participants who consumed both regular and menthol THS compared with those who consumed only one THS variant. Conclusions: The main predictors of THS adoption were positive sensory assessment and the ease of use. Socio-demographic characteristics and smoking habits appeared much less important. Post-marketing studies will provide further insights on the impact of the THS at the individual and the overall population level.

show abstract

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Open Science Framework: Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System (THS) by U.S. adult smokers. https://doi.org/10.17605/OSF.IO/SBDXG 69 .…”

Section: Data Availabilitymentioning

confidence: 99%

Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System by U.S. adult smokers: An actual use study

et al. 2019

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A diverse range of models have been developed for this purpose, many of them conducted and funded by tobacco product manufacturers as part of their MRTP submission strategies, but this topic has also attracted academic attention (Lee et al 2021). All these models investigate the effect of launching a new, potentially reduced risk tobacco or nicotine product with respect to a scenario where only conventional cigarettes are available (Bachand et al 2017, Djurdjevic et al 2018, Levy et al 2017). However, given the success of product categories such as e-cigarettes or tobacco heated products (THP) in markets around the world, a two-product model may not be sufficient to appropriately represent tobacco and nicotine product use dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the health effects of 3 coexisting tobacco and nicotine products using system dynamics population modeling: An Italian population case study

Camacho

Hill²,

Fiebelkorn

et al. 2021

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With the proliferation of tobacco and nicotine products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between 3 products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

show abstract

“…A diverse range of models have been developed for this purpose, many of them founded by the tobacco product manufacturers as part of their submission strategies, but this topic has also attracted academic attention (3). All these models investigate the effect of launching a new tobacco product with respect to a scenario where only cigarettes are available (4)(5)(6). However, given the success of product categories such as e-cigarettes or tobacco heated products (THP) in markets around the world, a two-product model may not be sufficient to appropriately represent tobacco use dynamics.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study

Camacho

Hill²,

Fiebelkorn

et al. 2021

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

With the proliferation of tobacco products, there might be a need for more complex models than current two-product models. We have developed a three-product model able to represent interactions between three products in the marketplace. We also investigate if using several implementations of two-product models could provide sufficient information to assess 3 coexisting products. Italy is used as case-study with THPs and e-cigarettes as the products under investigation. We use transitions rates estimated for THPs in Japan and e-cigarettes in the USA to project what could happen if the Italian population were to behave as the Japanese for THP or USA for e-cigarettes. Results suggest that three-product models may be hindered by data availability while two product models could miss potential synergies between products. Both, THP and E-Cigarette scenarios, led to reduction in life-years lost although the Japanese THP scenario reductions were 3 times larger than the USA e-cigarette projections.

show abstract

Modeling the Population Health Impact of Introducing a Modified Risk Tobacco Product into the U.S. Market

Cited by 17 publications

References 11 publications

Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System by U.S. adult smokers: An actual use study

Potential predictors of adoption of the Tobacco Heating System by U.S. adult smokers: An actual use study

Investigating the health effects of 3 coexisting tobacco and nicotine products using system dynamics population modeling: An Italian population case study

Investigating the Health Effects of 3 Coexisting Tobacco-Related Products Using System Dynamics Population Modeling: An Italian Population Case Study

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About