Modeling the Potential Global Distribution of Phenacoccus madeirensis Green under Various Climate Change Scenarios

Abstract

The Madeira mealybug, Phenacoccus madeirensis Green, is a serious invasive pest that does significant damage to more than 120 genera of host plants from 51 families in more than 81 countries. However, the potential distribution range of this pest is unclear, which could hamper control and eradication efforts. In the current study, MaxEnt models were developed to forecast the current and future distribution of the Madeira mealybug around the world. Moreover, the future potential distribution of this invasive species was projected for the 2050s and 2070s under three different climate change scenarios (HADGEM2-AO, GFDL-CM3, and MIROC5) and two representative concentration pathways (RCP-2.6 and RCP-8.5). The final model indicates that the Madeira mealybug has a highly suitable range for the continents of Asia, Europe, and Africa, as well as South America and North America, where this species has already been recorded. Potential expansions or reductions in distribution were also simulated under different future climatic conditions. Our study also suggested that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9) was the most important factor and explained 46.9% of the distribution model. The distribution model from the current and future predictions can enhance the strategic planning of agricultural and forestry organization by identifying regions that will need to develop integrated pest management programs to manage Madeira mealybug, especially for some highly suitable areas, such as South Asia and Europe. Moreover, the results of this research will help governments to optimize investment in the control and management of the Madeira mealybug by identifying regions that are or will become suitable for infestations.

Distribution Pattern of Endangered Plant Semiliquidambar cathayensis (Hamamelidaceae) in Response to Climate Change after the Last Interglacial Period

“…In this study, the results showed that the AUC given FC = LQ, RM = 1.5 for the parameter ROC curve was 0.9388, which is higher than that of Atrium brevifrons (0.901) [58], Tags lucida (0.92) [54], Homoia riparia (0.899) [59], and Phenacoccus madeirensis (0.9177) [60], which indicates that the simulation effect of the MaxEnt model of the potential geographical distribution area of S. cathayensis is accurate and reliable. In order to reduce errors, 144 combinations of features in ENMeval data packets were called in R software.…”

Multi-Scale Spatial Prediction of Wild Boar Damage Risk in Hunchun: A Key Tiger Range in China

“…Models with regularization multiplier (RM) values ranging from 0.5 to 6.0 (increments of 0.5) and with five different feature class (FC) combinations (L, LQ, H, LQH, LQHP; where L = linear, Q = quadratic, H = hinge, and P = product) were also constructed [ 29 ]. Of the 60 models constructed for this study, we chose the model having the minimum delta Akaike information criterion corrected for sample size (delta.AICc) as the optimal one for prediction [ 29 , 30 ].…”

Does the African Citrus psyllid, Trioza erytreae (Del Guercio) (Hemiptera: Triozidae), Represent a Phytosanitary Threat to the Citrus Industry in Mexico?

“…The purpose of the information is to guide decision-making at monitoring and sampling sites for preventive detection of T. erytreae in Mexico. Ecological Niche Modeling (ENM) is widely used to calculate areas environmentally suitable for invasive species in current or future scenarios at local, regional, or global geographical levels [ 35 , 36 , 37 ]. It is based on the use of species distribution points, analysis of the influence of environmental factors in the design of the ecological niche and the projection in the geographical plane.…”