Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change

ElShahed, Sara M.; Mostafa, Zahia K.; Radwan, Marwa H.; Hosni, Eslam M.

doi:10.1038/s41598-023-44441-8

Cited by 9 publications

(5 citation statements)

References 45 publications

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“…For example, Parmesan and Yohe [35] highlight the significance of temperature in shaping species' reactions to climate change, whereas Thuiller and others [36] investigate the possibility for range changes under different climate scenarios, such as the one that exists here in northern France. The study's focus on a single insect species and its ecological activities gives useful insights into the potential effects of distributional changes on nutrient cycling and agricultural systems, complementing larger research on biodiversity shifts [37][38][39][40][41].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and the Dung Beetle: Evaluation of Global Warming Impact on the Distribution of Phyllognathus excavatus (Forster, 1771) through the Mediterranean Region

Fatah,

Zalat,

Elbanna

et al. 2023

Applied Sciences

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Climate change poses a significant threat to ecosystems, food security, and human well-being. This study focuses on the Phyllognathus excavatus beetle, an important insect species in the Mediterranean region with ecological importance in nature recycling of organic wastes. The aim of this study is to assess its current habitat suitability and predict its distribution under future climate scenarios. The beetle’s occurrence records were gathered and climate information, including 19 bioclimatic variables, was retrieved from the Global Biodiversity Informatic Facility (GBIF) and WorldClim depository, respectively. The MaxEnt algorithm was used to calculate habitat appropriateness using geographic information systems (GISs) and species distribution modeling (SDM) with an accuracy of 0.907 using the AUC test. The findings show that the annual mean temperature is the most important factor, with the beetle flourishing in temperatures between 13.9 and 19.1 °C. The distribution is greatly impacted by the mean temperature of the warmest quarter. Future projections using different climate scenarios suggest potential changes in the beetle’s distribution. By integrating climate data and occurrence records, this study provides insights into the vulnerability of Phyllognathus excavatus to climate change and identifies regions where its habitat may be at risk as 81% of its current habitat will be lost. The research helps to prioritize efforts to reduce the harmful effects of climate change on insect biodiversity and to design effective conservation strategies. Overall, this study advances our knowledge of the Phyllognathus excavatus beetle’s present and projected distribution patterns in the Mediterranean region under the influence of climate change. It illustrates the significance of taking into account how climate change would affect insect populations and the use of SDM and GIS tools for researching and protecting insect biodiversity.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and the Dung Beetle: Evaluation of Global Warming Impact on the Distribution of Phyllognathus excavatus (Forster, 1771) through the Mediterranean Region

Fatah,

Zalat,

Elbanna

et al. 2023

Applied Sciences

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“…The Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROCs) and the True Skill Statistics (TSS) were used to evaluate the resulting models ( Salinas-Ramos et al 2021 ; ElShahed et al 2023 ). AUC values less than 0.5 were judged as poor fit, whilst values more than 0.75 were regarded as good fit ( Phillips et al 2023 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The ecology of this species is rarely studied and the way within which its population will behave to climate change is infrequently known ( Chapuis et al 2009 ). New techniques, such as remote sensing and geographical information systems, will greatly help in better understanding of these issues ( ElShahed et al 2023 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It uses presence-only species occurrence data along with environmental variables to estimate the probability of species occurrence across a landscape ( Phillips et al 2023 ). MaxEnt models have been employed to understand the environmental niche of several insect species and predict their potential distribution under different climate scenarios ( Royle et al 2012 ; Di Febbraro et al 2023 ; ElShahed et al 2023 ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Locusta migratoria (L.) (Orthoptera) in a warming world: unravelling the ecological consequences of climate change using GIS

Hosni,

Al-Khalaf,

Nasser

et al. 2024

BDJ

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The migratory locust, Locusta migratoria (L.), a significant grasshopper species known for its ability to form large swarms and cause extensive damage to crops and vegetation, is subject to the influence of climate change. This research paper employs geographic information system (GIS) and MaxEnt ecological modelling techniques to assess the impact of climate change on the distribution patterns of L. migratoria. Occurrence data and environmental variables are collected and analysed to create predictive models for the current and future distribution of the species. The study highlights the crucial role of climate factors, particularly temperature and precipitation, in determining the locust's distribution. The MaxEnt models exhibit high-performance indicators, accurately predicting the potential habitat suitability of L. migratoria. Additionally, specific bioclimatic variables, such as mean temperature and annual precipitation, are identified as significant factors influencing the species' presence. The generated future maps indicate how this species will invade new regions especially in Europe. Such results predict the risk of this destructive species for many agriculture communities as a direct result of a warming world. The research provides valuable insights into the complex relationship between locust distribution and environmental factors, enabling the development of effective strategies for locust management and early warning systems to mitigate the impact on agriculture and ecosystems.

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“…The MaxEnt model has been successfully used to predict the area of potentially suitable habitat for various invasive pests and economically significant insect pests, such as Ceroplastes rusci (Linnaeus, 1758) (Hemiptera: Coccidae), Aleurodicus rugioperculatus Martin, 2004 (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), Riptortus pedestris (Fabricius, 1775) (Hemiptera: Alydidae), Daktulosphaira vitifoliae (Fitch, 1855) (Hemiptera: Phylloxeridae), and Spodoptera littoralis (Boisduval, 1833) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) [ 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 ]. This model demonstrates high accuracy even when species distribution points are limited, which indicates that its predictive capability is superior to that of other models [ 30 ].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model

Mao,

Meng,

Song

et al. 2024

Insects

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The invasive pest, Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake), has become a significant threat to China’s citrus industry. Predicting the area of potentially suitable habitats for B. tsuneonis is essential for optimizing pest control strategies that mitigate its impact on the citrus industry. Here, existing distribution data for B. tsuneonis, as well as current climate data and projections for four future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were obtained. The distribution of B. tsuneonis under current and different climate change scenarios in China was predicted using the optimized MaxEnt model, ArcGIS, and the ENMeval data package. Model accuracy was assessed using ROC curves, and the primary environmental factors influencing the distribution of the pest were identified based on the percent contribution. When the regularization multiplier (RM) was set to 1.5 and the feature combination (FC) was set to LQH, a model with lower complexity was obtained. Under these parameter settings, the mean training AUC was 0.9916, and the mean testing AUC was 0.9854, indicating high predictive performance. The most influential environmental variables limiting the distribution of B. tsuneonis were the Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio18) and Temperature Seasonality (standard deviation ×100) (Bio4). Under current climatic conditions, potentially suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis in China covered an area of 215.9 × 104 km2, accounting for 22.49% of the country’s land area. Potentially suitable habitat was primarily concentrated in Central China, South China, and East China. However, under future climatic projections, the area of suitable habitat for B. tsuneonis exhibited varying degrees of expansion. Furthermore, the centroid of the total suitable habitat for this pest gradually shifted westward and northward. These findings suggest that B. tsuneonis will spread to northern and western regions of China under future climate changes. The results of our study indicate that climate change will have a major effect on the invasion of B. tsuneonis and have implications for the development of strategies to control the spread of B. tsuneonis in China.

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Modeling the potential global distribution of the Egyptian cotton leafworm, Spodoptera littoralis under climate change

Cited by 9 publications

References 45 publications

Climate Change and the Dung Beetle: Evaluation of Global Warming Impact on the Distribution of Phyllognathus excavatus (Forster, 1771) through the Mediterranean Region

Climate Change and the Dung Beetle: Evaluation of Global Warming Impact on the Distribution of Phyllognathus excavatus (Forster, 1771) through the Mediterranean Region

Locusta migratoria (L.) (Orthoptera) in a warming world: unravelling the ecological consequences of climate change using GIS

Forecasting the Expansion of Bactrocera tsuneonis (Miyake) (Diptera: Tephritidae) in China Using the MaxEnt Model

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