Modeling the Potential Impacts of Different Radon Policies for the U.S. Housing Stock

Abstract

According to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and other public health agencies in the United States, radon may be the leading cause (along with passive smoking) of lung cancer deaths among nonsmokers. Radon is estimated to be the second leading cause of lung cancer death in smokers behind smoking‐related lung cancer. EPA estimates that 7,000 to 30,000 lung cancer deaths each year are due to radon exposure. (It is implied that radon‐related lung cancer deaths can be prevented by reducing radon levels below EPA's guideline levels.) Current EPA radon policy is based on a strategy of education, the transfer of testing and remediation technologies to the public and private sectors, and recently proposed radon‐resistant construction standards for new homes. This paper models the effectiveness of current, proposed, and alternative policies for reducing radon risks in U.S. residential construction. The results of our analysis suggest that EPA's projections of 2,200 “lives saved annually” as a result of its current action level of 4 pCi/l will not be achieved with its current policy in the near future. Overall, the response of radon‐related mortality to most policy options is delayed and flat due in pan to the large number of houses with low radon levels and the long latency period between radon exposure and the development of cancer. The modeling results suggest that more aggressive smoking reduction programs may yield greater benefits in overall lung cancer mortality (but not reduced radon exposure) than most radon‐related policies.