Modeling the recovery phase of extreme geomagnetic storms

Cid, C.; Palacios, J.; Sáiz, E.; Cerrato, Y.; Aguado, Jesus; Guerrero, Antonio José Moreno

doi:10.1002/jgra.50409

Cited by 15 publications

(40 citation statements)

References 30 publications

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“…Although at that time the magnetic observatories used to produce Dst were not in operation, the Dst minimum value for this event was first estimated by Siscoe (1979) to be about À2000 nT. More recently, Lakhina et al (2005) and Cid et al (2013) provided new estimations of À1760 nT and À685 nT, respectively. In any case, the so-called Carrington storm is ranked, according to the Dst index, as the most extreme geomagnetic storm ever recorded.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

Cid

Sáiz

Guerrero

et al. 2015

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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In September 1859 the Colaba observatory measured the most extreme geomagnetic disturbance ever recorded at low latitudes related to solar activity: the Carrington storm. This paper describes a geomagnetic disturbance case with a profile extraordinarily similar to the disturbance of the Carrington event at Colaba: the event on 29 October 2003 at Tihany magnetic observatory in Hungary. The analysis of the H-field at different locations during the ''Carrington-like'' event leads to a re-interpretation of the 1859 event. The major conclusions of the paper are the following: (a) the global Dst or SYM-H, as indices based on averaging, missed the largest geomagnetic disturbance in the 29 October 2003 event and might have missed the 1859 disturbance, since the large spike in the horizontal component (H) of terrestrial magnetic field depends strongly on magnetic local time (MLT); (b) the main cause of the large drop in H recorded at Colaba during the Carrington storm was not the ring current but field-aligned currents (FACs); and (c) the very local signatures of the H-spike imply that a Carrington-like event can occur more often than expected.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

Cid

Sáiz

Guerrero

et al. 2015

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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show abstract

“…The estimated recovery was much slower than the observed one. Aguado et al (2010) proposed a hyperbolic model of storm recovery, and Cid et al (2013) applied the model to intense storms including the Carrington storm. They showed high accuracy of the hyperbolic function to reproduce the rapid recovery.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…They showed high accuracy of the hyperbolic function to reproduce the rapid recovery. Aguado et al (2010) and Cid et al (2013) commented on the existence of diverse processes responsible for the two-step recovery. However, they did not mention about the relative significance of ion loss processes that could occur in the inner magnetosphere.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

What caused the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm?

2015

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The geomagnetic storm during the Carrington event, which occurred on 2 September 1859, displayed extremely rapid recovery. The geomagnetic field increased by approximately 650 nT/h at Bombay, India, and by >300 nT/h in 1-h averaged data. Although the rapid recovery is considered due to a sudden increase in the magnetopause current, a sudden decrease of the ring current, or/and a sudden enhancement of the ionospheric currents, this study focuses on the ring current decay. The Carrington rapid recovery had a time constant (approximately 1 h) comparable to the storm development (i.e., decrease in the geomagnetic field), indicating that energy loss from the ring current region is predominantly controlled by E × B convection transport which is responsible for energy input during the storm main phase. This feature has led us to a hypothesis that the flow-out of dense ring current ions and injections of tenuous plasma sheet ions caused the rapid decay of the ring current and in turn the storm rapid recovery. This study examines whether the Carrington rapid recovery can be explained by the flow-out effect. We extend the empirical Burton's model to a model that takes into consideration a sudden change in solar wind density which is correlated with plasma sheet density. We first apply the extended Burton's model to previously observed four intense magnetic storms (Dst minimum < −200 nT) for which solar wind data are available. Using the best fit parameters found by forward modeling, the extended model estimates the recovery of the Carrington storm. The estimate indicates that a solar wind structure with a density bump by approximately 100 cm −3 (and southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) of 65 nT and solar wind speed of 1,500 km/s) can cause the rapid recovery under a continuous southward IMF condition. We conclude that the flow-out effect plays a significant role in producing the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm.

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“…Cid et al (2013) show the high accuracy of the hyperbolic fitting in reproducing the recovery phase of Dst index in extreme storms. Figure 5 shows, as an example, the results of the hyperbolic decay fitting to one of the extreme geomagnetic events: the large storm in July 1928 recorded at Alibag magnetometer.…”

Section: About the Recovery Phasementioning

confidence: 79%

“…However, no term in the BMR equation considers that the Dst decrease in HILDCAAs is related to fluctuations in B z , since the duration of the southward B z component is not long enough to explain the phenomenon. Cid et al (2013) have undertaken a study to check the cause-effect relationship during the main phase of the storm between duskward interplanetary electric fields, E y , and the decrease of the SYM-H index which, with 1-min resolution, can be regarded as a high resolution Dst index (Wanliss & Showalter 2006). Their results suggest that an injection function which depends only on E y cannot explain the energy released from the solar wind to the terrestrial magnetosphere for timescales shorter than 8 h. Moreover, they show that there is some missing energy in the energy-balance equation between the interplanetary medium and the magnetosphere for those events where SYM-H decreases fast (À100 nT in <8 h).…”

Section: About the Injection Functionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Geomagnetic response to solar and interplanetary disturbances

Sáiz

Cerrato

Cid

et al. 2013

J. Space Weather Space Clim.

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The space weather discipline involves different physical scenarios, which are characterised by very different physical conditions, ranging from the Sun to the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere. Thanks to the great modelling effort made during the last years, a few Sun-to-ionosphere/thermosphere physics-based numerical codes have been developed. However, the success of the prediction is still far from achieving the desirable results and much more progress is needed. Some aspects involved in this progress concern both the technical progress (developing and validating tools to forecast, selecting the optimal parameters as inputs for the tools, improving accuracy in prediction with short lead time, etc.) and the scientific development, i.e., deeper understanding of the energy transfer process from the solar wind to the coupled magnetosphere-ionosphere-thermosphere system. The purpose of this paper is to collect the most relevant results related to these topics obtained during the COST Action ES0803. In an end-to-end forecasting scheme that uses an artificial neural network, we show that the forecasting results improve when gathering certain parameters, such as X-ray solar flares, Type II and/or Type IV radio emission and solar energetic particles enhancements as inputs for the algorithm. Regarding the solar wind-magnetosphere-ionosphere interaction topic, the geomagnetic responses at high and low latitudes are considered separately. At low latitudes, we present new insights into temporal evolution of the ring current, as seen by Burton's equation, in both main and recovery phases of the storm. At high latitudes, the PCC index appears as an achievement in modelling the coupling between the upper atmosphere and the solar wind, with a great potential for forecasting purposes. We also address the important role of small-scale field-aligned currents in Joule heating of the ionosphere even under non-disturbed conditions. Our scientific results in the framework of the COST Action ES0803 cover the topics from the short-term solar-activity evolution, i.e., space weather, to the long-term evolution of relevant solar/heliospheric/magnetospheric parameters, i.e., space climate. On the timescales of the Hale and Gleissberg cycles (22-and 88-year cycle respectively) we can highlight that the trend of solar, heliospheric and geomagnetic parameters shows the solar origin of the widely discussed increase in geomagnetic activity in the last century.

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Modeling the recovery phase of extreme geomagnetic storms

Cited by 15 publications

References 30 publications

A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

A Carrington-like geomagnetic storm observed in the 21st century

What caused the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm?

Geomagnetic response to solar and interplanetary disturbances

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