Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka

Zhang, Ying; Riera, Jefferson; Ostrow, Kayla; Siddiqui, Sauleh; Silva, Harendra de; Sarkar, Sahotra; Fernando, LakKumar; Gardner, Lauren

doi:10.1101/462150

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 47 publications

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“…A large number of cases of DHF can be attributed to temperature [40], [41], [42]. Climatic factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall [43], [44], [45] [46] can prolong the transmission period of DHF [47]. Temperatures of 24-39°C play a significant role in mosquitoes' development, survival, and feeding behavior to promote viral replication in vectors [48]; thus, DHF will increase by 35% per 1°C [49].…”

Section: The Incidence Rate Of Dhf Based On Climatic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Variability and Incidence on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Palembang City, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Rubel

Anwar

Irfanuddin

et al. 2021

Open Access Maced J Med Sci

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Dengue hemorrhagic fever (DHF) is a dengue virus infection transmitted by Aedes spp. Climate has a profound influence on mosquito breeding. Palembang has the highest rate of DHF in South Sumatra. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the components of climate factors and the incidence of DHF in Palembang. This study was cross-sectional, with an observational analytic approach. The Palembang City Health Office compiled data on DHF incidence rates from 2016 to 2020. Climatic factor data (rainfall, number of rainy days, temperature, humidity, wind speed, sun irradiance) were collected from the Climatology Station Class I Palembang - BMKG Station and Task Force that same year. The Spearman test was used to conduct the correlation test. Between 2016 and 2020, there were 3,398 DHF patients. From January to May, DHF increased. There was a significant correlation between rainfall (r = 0.320; p = 0.005), number of rainy days (r = 0.295; p = 0.020), temperature (r = 0.371; p = 0.040), and humidity (r = 0.221; p = 0.024), wind speed (r= 0.76; p = 0.492), and sunlight (r = 0.008; p = 0.865). Rainfall, the number of rainy days, and temperature were three climatic factors determining the increase in dengue incidence in Palembang.

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Section: The Incidence Rate Of Dhf Based On Climatic Factorsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Climate Variability and Incidence on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Palembang City, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Rubel

Anwar

Irfanuddin

et al. 2021

Open Access Maced J Med Sci

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“…In addition to considering temperature, studies to estimate drivers of disease burden may incorporate several additional covariates including El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), urban infrastructure, age structure, human mobility, and immunity (based on past exposure) 19,20,21,22,23,24 .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia

Childs,

Lyberger,

Harris

et al. 2024

Preprint

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Climate change poses significant threats to public health, with dengue representing a growing concern due to its high existing burden and sensitivity to climatic conditions. Yet, the quantitative impacts of temperature warming on dengue, both in the past and in the future, remain poorly understood. In this study, we quantify how dengue responds to climatic fluctuations, and use this inferred temperature response to estimate the impacts of historical warming and forecast trends under future climate change scenarios. To estimate the causal impact of temperature on the spread of dengue in the Americas and Asia, we assembled a dataset encompassing nearly 1.5 million dengue incidence records from 21 countries. Our analysis revealed a nonlinear relationship between temperature and dengue incidence with the largest marginal effects at lower temperatures (around 15°C), peak incidence at 27.8°C (95% CI: 27.3 - 28.2°C), and subsequent declines at higher temperatures. Our findings indicate that historical climate change has already increased dengue incidence 18% (12 - 25%) in the study region, and projections suggest a potential increase of 40% (17 - 76) to 57% (33 - 107%) by mid-century depending on the climate scenario, with some areas seeing up to 200% increases. Notably, our models suggest that lower emissions scenarios would substantially reduce the warming-driven increase in dengue burden. Together, these insights contribute to the broader understanding of how long-term climate patterns influence dengue, providing a valuable foundation for public health planning and the development of strategies to mitigate future risks due to climate change.

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Multivariate spatio-temporal approach to identify vulnerable localities in dengue risk areas using Geographic Information System (GIS)

Withanage

Gunawardana

Viswakula

et al. 2021

Sci Rep

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Dengue is one of the most important vector-borne infection in Sri Lanka currently leading to vast economic and social burden. Neither a vaccine nor drug is still not being practiced, vector controlling is the best approach to control disease transmission in the country. Therefore, early warning systems are imminent requirement. The aim of the study was to develop Geographic Information System (GIS)-based multivariate analysis model to detect risk hotspots of dengue in the Gampaha District, Sri Lanka to control diseases transmission. A risk model and spatial Poisson point process model were developed using separate layers for patient incidence locations, positive breeding containers, roads, total buildings, public places, land use maps and elevation in four high risk areas in the district. Spatial correlations of each study layer with patient incidences was identified using Kernel density and Euclidean distance functions with minimum allowed distance parameter. Output files of risk model indicate that high risk localities are in close proximity to roads and coincide with vegetation coverage while the Poisson model highlighted the proximity of high intensity localities to public places and possibility of artificial reservoirs of dengue. The latter model further indicate that clustering of dengue cases in a radius of approximately 150 m in high risk areas indicating areas need intensive attention in future vector surveillances.

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Modeling the relative role of human mobility, land-use and climate factors on dengue outbreak emergence in Sri Lanka

Cited by 3 publications

References 47 publications

Impact of Climate Variability and Incidence on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Palembang City, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Impact of Climate Variability and Incidence on Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever in Palembang City, South Sumatra, Indonesia

Climate warming is expanding dengue burden in the Americas and Asia

Multivariate spatio-temporal approach to identify vulnerable localities in dengue risk areas using Geographic Information System (GIS)

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