Modeling the response of glacier systems to climate warming in China

Xie, Zhenghui; Wang, Xin; Feng, Qinghua; Ersi, Kang; Chaohai, Liu; Li, Qiaoyuan

doi:10.3189/172756406781812050

Cited by 28 publications

(28 citation statements)

References 4 publications

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“…In semi-distributed models, glacier systems are represented by glacier areaaltitude distribution histograms of subbasins, typically with a step of 100 m (Dyurgerov et al 1995;Tangborn and Rana 2000;Alford et al 2009;Hagg et al 2011;Bocchiola et al 2011). An alternative approach is to represent a glacier (sub-) system by its overall area and mean ELA (Aizen and Loktionova 1996;Aizen 1996, 1998;Konovalov 1997;Lebedeva 1997;Shetinnikov 1998;Xie et al 2006;Kang et al 2009). Fully distributed models (IrvineFynn et al 2012;Boscarello et al 2012) are rare, since up-scaling glacier areal parameters is a challenging task for basins with a large number of glaciers, most of which are of subgrid size.…”

Section: Methods Of Meltwater Assessments: a Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate

Savoskul¹,

Smakhtin²

2013

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The publications in this series cover a wide range of subjects-from computer modeling to experience with water user associations-and vary in content from directly applicable research to more basic studies, on which applied work ultimately depends. Some research reports are narrowly focused, analytical and detailed empirical studies; others are wide-ranging and synthetic overviews of generic problems.Although most of the reports are published by IWMI staff and their collaborators, we welcome contributions from others. Each report is reviewed internally by IWMI staff, and by external reviewers. The reports are published and distributed both in hard copy and electronically (www.iwmi.org) and where possible all data and analyses will be available as separate downloadable files. Reports may be copied freely and cited with due acknowledgment. About IWMIIWMI's mission is to improve the management of land and water resources for food, livelihoods and the environment. In serving this mission, IWMI concentrates on the integration of policies, technologies and management systems to achieve workable solutions to real problems-practical, relevant results in the field of irrigation and water and land resources.

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Section: Methods Of Meltwater Assessments: a Reviewmentioning

confidence: 99%

Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate

Savoskul¹,

Smakhtin²

2013

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“…The most widely used hydrological models, such as the distributed SWAT, the MIKE-SHE model and the conceptual SRM model, as a rule do not calculate glacier melt processes, despite the fact that excluding the glacier processes could induce large errors in glacierized catchments. Glacier processes are complex in that glacier melt will at first increase due to the rise in ablation and lowering of glacier elevation, and then, after reaching its peak, will decrease due to the shrinking in glacier area (Xie et al, 2006). Moreover, simulation errors can be re-categorized as precipitation or glacier meltwater and consequently result in a greater uncertainty in the water balance in high mountain areas .…”

Section: Glacier Melt Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

Chen

Fang

et al. 2017

Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci.

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Abstract. Meltwater from glacierized catchments is one of the most important water supplies in central Asia. Therefore, the effects of climate change on glaciers and snow cover will have increasingly significant consequences for runoff. Hydrological modeling has become an indispensable research approach to water resources management in large glacierized river basins, but there is a lack of focus in the modeling of glacial discharge. This paper reviews the status of hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia, discussing the limitations of the available models and extrapolating these to future challenges and directions. After reviewing recent efforts, we conclude that the main sources of uncertainty in assessing the regional hydrological impacts of climate change are the unreliable and incomplete data sets and the lack of understanding of the hydrological regimes of glacierized catchments of central Asia. Runoff trends indicate a complex response to changes in climate. For future variation of water resources, it is essential to quantify the responses of hydrologic processes to both climate change and shrinking glaciers in glacierized catchments, and scientific focus should be on reducing uncertainties linked to these processes.

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“…Shi and Liu (2000) estimated that by 2100, glacier volume in China may be only 30-67 % than that of the present day. Xie et al (2006) simulated scenarios in which temperatures warmed by 0.01, 0.03, and 0.05 K a -1 and found that by the end of the twenty-first century, China's glaciated areas would decrease by 14, 40, and 60 %, respectively.…”

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confidence: 99%

Effects of glacier melting on socioeconomic development in the Manas River basin, China

Tang

Zhang

et al. 2012

Nat Hazards

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This study used 46 years of recent data, including glacial area, temperature, precipitation, and runoff data, to examine the glacier melting and its possible socioeconomic effects in the Manas River basin in western China. The average yearly change in the glaciated area in the Manas River basin for the entire study period was 0.41 %, and the glacier mass balance mainly keeps negative in the last 46 years. The negative glacial mass balance observed between 1986 and 2006 was 2.8 times greater than that for the period 1960-1985. Additionally, the amount of meltwater runoff was 78 % greater in 1986-2006 than in 1960-1985, with a mean depth of 478 mm year -1.Glacier melting and runoff in the Manas River basin during the late twentieth century were higher than at present. Annual meltwater volumes can reach 1 9 10 8 m 3 , providing beneficial water resources to downstream areas. However, as the climate becomes warmer, the risk of meltwater flooding will also increase. Our calculations indicate that after the 2030s, the level of flooding risk will increase substantially.

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Modeling the response of glacier systems to climate warming in China

Cited by 28 publications

References 4 publications

Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate

Glacier systems and seasonal snow cover in six major Asian river basins: hydrological role under changing climate

Review article: Hydrological modeling in glacierized catchments of central Asia – status and challenges

Effects of glacier melting on socioeconomic development in the Manas River basin, China

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