Modeling the Sociospatial Constraints on Land-Use Change: The Case of Periurban Sprawl in the Greater Boston Region

Abstract

L an d-use-change drivers related to in stitu tio n al dynam ics, including historical p ath dependencies an d political dynam ics associated w ith u rb an lan d tran sfo rm atio n , are difficult to relate to specific spatial locations an d th u s are n o t easily included in spatial m odels o f u rb an land-use change. In this p ap er we describe a land-use model w ith variables representing such in stitu tio n al dynam ics in the G re ater B o sto n region, a m e tro p o lita n area characterized by p eriu rb an spraw l, for the p eriod 1985-99. A n ag g regate land-use m odel is developed at the m unicipal level, based on a n arrativ e analysis d raw n from in -d ep th interview s w ith tow n plan n ers, state officials, an d land developers, to explain land-developm ent p a tte rn s d ocum ented over th a t study perio d using aerial ph o to graphy. E x p la n ato ry variables, including tow n financial variables, school quality m easures, an d spatial variables associated w ith access an d lo catio n , are linked to landch an g e o utcom es th ro u g h the selection environm ent fram ew ork, a fram ew ork borro w ed from econom ic geography to describe how regional gro w th p a tte rn s are sh ap ed by locally specific in stitu tio n al, m arket, an d spatial contexts th a t co n stra in individual land-use decision m akers. R esults o f the analysis suggest th a t in stitu tio n al dynam ics associated w ith h o using values an d associated tax revenues, ed u catio n al expenditures, an d exclusive zoning practices significantly explain m unicipal land-use change in the su b u rb an o r p eriu rb an context. Keywords: land use, m e tro p o litan areas, m odel calib ratio n , policy su p p o rt

A framework for path-dependent industrial land transition analysis using vector data

“…Hansen (2012) argues, detailed data from at least three not consecutive years are needed to compare land use compositional changes of a longer period, and they need to be collected from the same reliable source and manipulated consistently, and the effort in acquiring and long-time of manipulating data for decision support should be considered. Even though Nygaard and Meen have contended that this process of path dependency and spatial lock-in requires data over a period of 100 years (2013), examples presented by McCauley, Rogan, Murphy, Turner, and Ratick (2015) in USA and by Verburg, van Eck, de Nijs, Dijst, and Schot (2004) in the Netherlands have shown a shorter period (15 and 8 years respectively) can also demonstrate such behaviour and these studies show that policies have an important influence on land use patterns.…”

“…As Hagoort, Geertman, and Ottens (2008) claimed, the neighbourhood rules need a sound empirical foundation before they can be applied to support spatial policy. Other researchers have also suggested that the land change process is to a great extent shaped by historically produced, locally specific social structures (Briassoulis, 2008;McCauley et al, 2015;.…”

Land quality and the city: Monitoring urban growth and land take in 76 Southern European metropolitan areas

“…A progressively larger proportion of rural areas has been converted to residential, commercial and industrial settlements producing socially polarized and economically unspecialized spaces (Portnov and Safriel, 2004;Richardson and Chang-Hee, 2004;Indovina, 2005;Oueslati et al, 2014). Changes in the use of land driven by historically-produced and place-specific social processes has also led to diverging environmental outcomes according to the socioeconomic context (Polyzos et al, 2008;Beniston et al, 2016;McCauley et al, 2015). For example, urban sprawl has determined an increased fragmentation of relict agricultural systems with the consequent loss of biodiversity, traditional agronomic practices and local culture (Biasi et al, 2015).…”

“…A progressively larger proportion of rural areas has been converted to residential, commercial and industrial settlements in recent times, producing socially polarized and economically unspecialized spaces (Indovina, 2005; Oueslati et al., 2014; Portnov and Safriel, 2004; Richardson and Chang-Hee, 2004). Changes in the use of land driven by historically produced and place-specific social processes have also led to diverging environmental outcomes according to the socioeconomic context (Beniston et al., 2016; McCauley et al., 2015; Polyzos et al., 2008). Land-use changes have mainly threatened natural ecosystems in rapidly expanding metropolitan regions sensitive to climate changes (Camacho-Valdez et al., 2014; Vargo et al., 2013; Wu et al., 2015).…”