Modeling the spatial distribution of grazing intensity in Kazakhstan

Abstract

With increasing affluence in many developing countries, the demand for livestock products is rising and the increasing feed requirement contributes to pressure on land resources for food and energy production. However, there is currently a knowledge gap in our ability to assess the extent and intensity of the utilization of land by livestock, which is the single largest land use in the world. We developed a spatial model that combines fine-scale livestock numbers with their associated energy requirements to distribute livestock grazing demand onto a map of energy supply, with the aim of estimating where and to what degree pasture is being utilized. We applied our model to Kazakhstan, which contains large grassland areas that historically have been used for extensive livestock production but for which the current extent, and thus the potential for increasing livestock production, is unknown. We measured the grazing demand of Kazakh livestock in 2015 at 286 Petajoules, which was 25% of the estimated maximum sustainable energy supply that is available to livestock for grazing. The model resulted in a grazed area of 1.22 million km2, or 48% of the area theoretically available for grazing in Kazakhstan, with most utilized land grazed at low intensities (average off-take rate was 13% of total biomass energy production). Under a conservative scenario, our estimations showed a production potential of 0.13 million tons of beef additional to 2015 production (31% increase), and much more with utilization of distant pastures. This model is an important step forward in evaluating pasture use and available land resources, and can be adapted at any spatial scale for any region in the world.

Post‐Soviet shifts in grazing and fire regimes changed the functional plant community composition on the Eurasian steppe

“…Governmental policies need to be adapted towards this aim. Furthermore, subsidies that support meat production in free‐ranging livestock systems need to be prioritized over governmental help for feedlot‐based systems (Hankerson et al., 2019), and financial incentives to restore depleted infrastructure (stables and wells, Kerven et al., 2016a) need to be available, and domestic meat markets strengthened. Rural areas need to be supported to prevent a further exodus of labour, incl.…”

Global rangeland production systems and livelihoods at threat under climate change and variability

“…These regions should, however, be considered with caution as the ability to take advantage of these favourable trends may be limited due to high local heterogeneities in agro-ecological conditions and limiting socio-economic contexts (Lin et al 2013). Many of these grazing systems are also already considered to be overgrazed (Hankerson et al 2019).…”

Potential biodiversity change in Central Asian grasslands: scenarios for the impact of climate and land-use change

“…Currently, more than 20% of the natural grasslands of Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan are under moderate to high grazing intensity, while the vast majority of grasslands of Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are nearly pristine natural grasslands with low grazing intensity (estimated from Petz et al 2014). Grasslands in Kazakhstan, the largest country in the region, have possibilities to increase livestock production due to available biomass resources, especially in the east and the northwest (Hankerson et al 2019).…”