Modeling the spread of Covid-19 pandemic: case of Morocco

Abstract

<jats:title>Abstract</jats:title><jats:sec id="j_em-2020-0004_abs_001_w2aab3b7b1b1b6b1aab1c15b2Aa"><jats:title>Objective</jats:title><jats:p>This paper is establishing the relationship between the spreading dynamics of the Covid-19 pandemic in Morocco and the efficiency of the measures and actions taken by public authorities to contain it. The main objective is to predict the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco and to estimate the time needed for its disappearance.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec id="j_em-2020-0004_abs_002_w2aab3b7b1b1b6b1aab1c15b3Aa"><jats:title>Methods</jats:title><jats:p>For these reasons, we have highlighted the role of mathematical models in understanding the transmission chain of this virus as well as its future evolution. Then we used the SIR epidemiological model, which proves to be well suited to address this issue. It shows that identification of the key parameters of this pandemic, such as the probability of transmission, should help to adequately explain its behaviour and make it easier to predict its progress.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec id="j_em-2020-0004_abs_003_w2aab3b7b1b1b6b1aab1c15b4Aa"><jats:title>Results</jats:title><jats:p>As a result, the measures and actions taken by the public authorities in Morocco allowed to record lower number of virus reproduction than many countries.</jats:p></jats:sec><jats:sec id="j_em-2020-0004_abs_004_w2aab3b7b1b1b6b1aab1c15b5Aa"><jats:title>Conclusion</jats:title><jats:p>So, in the case of Morocco, we were able to predict that the Covid-19 pandemic should disappear in a shorter time and without registering a larger number of infected individuals compared to other countries.</jats:p></jats:sec>

A Markov model of COVID-19 susceptibilities, infections, recoveries and fatalities: evidence from Nigeria

“…Policymakers will find the projections useful in planning to end the COVID-19 pandemic. The results are consistent with Lofti, Lotfi and Aoun, 2020; Wang and Flessa (2020), as well as Chen et al (2020), Donsimoni et al (2020), Marfak et al (2020) and He et al (2020).…”

“…The forecasts, thus, showed that the cases of infection will continue to decline whilst the cases of fatalities will continue to decline. The results are consistent with Lofti et al , 2020, Chen et al (2020), García et al (2020) and Marfak et al (2020). Consequently, with increased attention to the management of the COVID-19 pandemic by policymakers in the three tiers of government in Nigeria, there will be a significant reduction in the rate of susceptibilities, infections and fatalities but the recovery rate will increase significantly.…”

“…Lofti et al (2020) modelled the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Morocco to establish the relationship between its spreading dynamics in Morocco using the SIR model. Based on the results, they predicted that the COVID-19 pandemic will disappear in a short time and that casualties will be minimal.…”

“…Within a short period of its outbreak, the COVID-19 pandemic has attracted the interest of many authors across various disciplines. This has resulted in many empirical studies such as COVID-19 pandemic under uncertainty using system dynamic model (Wang and Flessa, 2020), prediction of COVID-19 with discrete-time Markov chain model (He et al , 2020; Chen et al , 2020; Lofti et al , 2020). SIR epidemic model for the COVID-19 pandemic (Alanazi et al , 2020; De la Sen and Ibeas, 2020; Nguemdjo Meno et al , 2020), Markov processes for stochastic modelling (Ibe, 2013), Using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods to estimate the age-specific case fatality rate of COVID-19 (Du et al , 2020), Modelling COVID-19 under nonpharmaceutical interventions (Wong et al , 2020), modelling the Spread of COVID-19 in Lebanon (Kharroub, 2020), spatial distribution dynamics and prediction of COVID-19 in Asian countries: spatial Markov (Shabani and Shahnaz, 2020) and Partition Markov Model for COVID-19 Virus (García et al , 2020), Epidemiology, causes, clinical manifestation and diagnosis, prevention and control of COVID-19 (Adhikari et al , 2020), analysis of the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China; Italy; and New York City (Zhang et al , 2020), a model of the evolution of the number of people that are infected with COVID-19 in Germany (Donsimoni et al , 2020), amongst others.…”

“…The methodologies include Markov modelling (Chen et al , 2020; Donsimoni et al , 2020; Ibe, 2013; Du et al , 2020; Wong et al , 2020; Shabani and Shahnaz, 2020; García et al , 2020; Lofti et al , 2020), dynamic modelling with SIR states (Wang and Flessa, 2020). Most of the modelling approaches used the SIR pattern, thus excluding the projection for fatalities.…”