Modeling the spread of COVID-19 as a consequence of undocumented immigration toward the reduction of daily hospitalization: Case reports from Thailand

Abstract

At present, a large number of people worldwide have been infected by coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19). When the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic begins in a country, its impact is disastrous to both the country and its neighbors. In early 2020, the spread of COVID-19 was associated with global aviation. More recently, COVID-19 infections due to illegal or undocumented immigration have played a significant role in spreading the disease in Southeast Asia countries. Therefore, the spread of COVID-19 of all countries’ border should be curbed. Many countries closed their borders to all nations, causing an unprecedented decline in global travel, especially cross-border travel. This restriction affects social and economic trade-offs. Therefore, immigration policies are essential to control the COVID-19 pandemic. To understand and simulate the spread of the disease under different immigration conditions, we developed a novel mathematical model called the Legal immigration and Undocumented immigration from natural borders for Susceptible-Infected-Hospitalized and Recovered people (LUSIHR). The purpose of the model was to simulate the number of infected people under various policies, including uncontrolled, fully controlled, and partially controlled countries. The infection rate was parameterized using the collected data from the Department of Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Thailand. We demonstrated that the model possesses nonnegative solutions for favorable initial conditions. The analysis of numerical experiments showed that we could control the virus spread and maintain the number of infected people by increasing the control rate of undocumented immigration across the unprotected natural borders. Next, the obtained parameters were used to visualize the effect of the control rate on immigration at the natural border. Overall, the model was well-suited to explaining and building the simulation. The parameters were used to simulate the trends in the number of people infected from COVID-19.

Returning empty-handed or going somewhere? Tales from social division networks of re-migrants in the polarized post-COVID-19 era: A phenomenological study

“…Furthermore, previous scholars have emphasized the global migration nexus (Chan and Lan 2022; Doering-White et al, 2022; McAuliffe et al, 2021). Hence, this study has clearly filled the theoretical gap by investigating social division theory in relation to network capital in the polarized post-COVID-19 era (Chiozza and King, 2022; Crawley, 2021; Cresswell, 2021; Ikotun et al, 2021), especially concerning Laotian re-migrants in Thailand (Intarapanya et al, 2022; Suhardiman et al, 2021; Withers et al, 2022).…”

“…The setting was chosen to explore Laotian re-migrants’ experiences of social division networks in polarized post-COVID-19 Thailand. According to Intarapanya et al (2022), Bangkok is the main destination for re-migrants from low-income countries such as Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, and Vietnam. Similarly, the ILO (2021a) estimated that 13,311 Laotian re-migrants are newly registered, not yet verified, or awaiting work permits in Bangkok.…”

“…Recent studies have classified three types of irregular re-migrants: those without a work permit, with non-contract employment, and cabinet resolution (Bouchet and Duvoux, 2022; Daovisan et al, 2022). Intarapanya et al (2022) identified types of re-migrants (newly registered, awaiting a permit extension due to COVID-19 impacts, and nationality verification to regularize status) among Thailand’s neighboring countries, including Myanmar, Lao PDR, and Cambodia. According to extant research, irregular re-migrants are categorized as cheap low-skilled workers who enter to fill labor shortages in host-receiving countries (Chan and Lan, 2022).…”

Migrant Men Living in Brazil during the Pandemic: A Qualitative Study

“…In addition to the epidemiological control of COVID-19 through the reduction in undocumented immigration across unprotected natural borders [9], other global health emergencies must be considered among male migrant groups. These include seeking refuge and political asylum, conflicts and violence, xenophobia, racism, impoverishment, hunger, misery, food insecurity, economic and employment fragility, abusive alcohol and drug use, immunosuppression, homelessness, severe mental suffering, and involvement in criminal activities such as drug trafficking, as these issues impact the social and psychological well-being, quality of life, and health promotion of men worldwide [10,11].…”

Modeling the Spread of COVID-19 with the Control of Mixed Vaccine Types during the Pandemic in Thailand

“…The effect of convalescent plasma transfusion helps to increase patient survival [ 20 ]. In 2022, Intarapanya et al considered the spread of COVID-19 in Thailand due to immigration, using a model referred to as LUSIHR [ 22 ]. This model consists of six classes including legal immigrants, undocumented immigrants, susceptible people, infected people, hospitalized people, and recovered people.…”