Modeling the spread of invasive nutrias (Myocastor coypus) over Iran

Farashi, Azita; Najafabadi, Mitra Shariati

doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2015.02.003

Cited by 19 publications

(9 citation statements)

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“…Although on a continental scale, climatic aspects are clearly of higher importance (Franklin 2010), some of the predictors associated with land cover consistently showed a significant influence on occurrence probability which, for example, increased with increasing amount of wetlands within a grid cell. The relevance of land cover variables for coypu occurrence was reported by previous studies (Scheide 2013, Farashi andNajafabadi 2015) and should definitely be taken into account in future studies that are conducted on a finer scale. Bertolino and Ingegno (2009) showed that coypu prefers rice paddies as habitats in Northern Italy.…”

Section: Environmental Predictors Shaping Coypu Occurrencementioning

confidence: 54%

“…One widely used approach to reveal potential distributions of invasive alien species is via species distribution models (SDMs), which correlate a species' occurrence in geographical space with environmental variables in order to predict its potential distribution through spatial and temporal extrapolation (Elith and Leathwick 2009, Václavík and Meentemeyer 2009, Franklin 2010, Jiménez-Valverde et al 2011. Although some studies have applied SDMs to the coypu (Bertolino and Ingegno 2009, Scheide 2013, Farashi and Najafabadi 2015, Hong et al 2015, Jarnevich et al 2017, a detailed investigation on a pan-European scale, taking into account land cover, bioclimatic and socioeconomic factors, is yet missing.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

Schertler¹,

Rabitsch²,

Moser³

et al. 2020

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The coypu (Myocastor coypus) is a semi-aquatic rodent native to South America which has become invasive in Europe and other parts of the world. Although recently listed as species of European Union concern in the EU Invasive Alien Species Regulation, an analysis of the current European occurrence and of its potential current and future distribution was missing yet. We collected 24,232 coypu records (corresponding to 25,534 grid cells at 5 × 5 km) between 1980 and 2018 from a range of sources and 28 European countries and analysed them spatiotemporally, categorising them into persistence levels. Using logistic regression, we constructed consensus predictions across all persistence levels to depict the potential current distribution of the coypu in Europe and its change under four different climate scenarios for 2041–2060. From all presence grid cells, 45.5% showed at least early signs of establishment (records temporally covering a minimum of one generation length, i.e. 5 years), whereas 9.8% were considered as containing established populations (i.e. three generation lengths of continuous coverage). The mean temperature of the warmest quarter (bio10), mean diurnal temperature range (bio2) and the minimum temperature of the coldest month (bio6) were the most important of the analysed predictors. In total, 42.9% of the study area are classified as suitable under current climatic conditions, of which 72.6% are to current knowledge yet unoccupied; therefore, we show that the coypu has, by far, not yet reached all potentially suitable regions in Europe. Those cover most of temperate Europe (Atlantic, Continental and Pannonian biogeographic region), as well as the coastal regions of the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. A comparison of the suitable and occupied areas showed that none of the affected countries has reached saturation by now. Under climate change scenarios, suitable areas will slightly shift towards Northern regions, while a general decrease in suitability is predicted for Southern and Central Europe (overall decrease of suitable areas 2–8% depending on the scenario). Nevertheless, most regions that are currently suitable for coypus are likely to be so in the future. We highlight the need to further investigate upper temperature limits in order to properly interpret future climatic suitability for the coypu in Southern Europe. Based on our results, we identify regions that are most at risk for future invasions and provide management recommendations. We hope that this study will help to improve the allocation of efforts for future coypu research and contribute to harmonised management, which is essential to reduce negative impacts of the coypu and to prevent further spread in Europe.

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Section: Environmental Predictors Shaping Coypu Occurrencementioning

confidence: 54%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

Schertler¹,

Rabitsch²,

Moser³

et al. 2020

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show abstract

“…We tested for multi-collinearity amongst variables using Pearson correlation coefficients from a principal component analysis. Using the scores from the first two principal components (cumulative percentage, 58.614%), we excluded variables with a cross-correlation coefficient absolute value exceeding 0.75 ( Tables S2 and S3 ; Farashi & Najafabadi , 2015 ). This reduced our predictor variable set to 17 environmental variables that may influence the distribution and physiological performance of threatened plant species and can therefore be used in ENMs to infer the current climate suitability of threatened plant species ( Tables S2 and S3 ; Wang et al , 2015 ).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

Wang

Liu

Wan

et al. 2016

PeerJ

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Climate change has the potential to alter the distributions of threatened plant species, and may therefore diminish the capacity of nature reserves to protect threatened plant species. Chinese nature reserves contain a rich diversity of plant species that are at risk of becoming more threatened by climate change. Hence, it is urgent to identify the extent to which future climate change may compromise the suitability of threatened plant species habitats within Chinese nature reserves. Here, we modelled the climate suitability of 82 threatened plant species within 168 nature reserves across climate change scenarios. We used Maxent modelling based on species occurrence localities and evaluated climate change impacts using the magnitude of change in climate suitability and the degree of overlap between current and future climatically suitable habitats. There was a significant relationship between overlap with current and future climate suitability of all threatened plant species habitats and the magnitude of changes in climate suitability. Our projections estimate that the climate suitability of more than 60 threatened plant species will decrease and that climate change threatens the habitat suitability of plant species in more than 130 nature reserves under the low, medium, and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios by both 2050s and 2080s. Furthermore, future climate change may substantially threaten tree plant species through changes in annual mean temperature. These results indicate that climate change may threaten plant species that occur within Chinese nature reserves. Therefore, we suggest that climate change projections should be integrated into the conservation and management of threatened plant species within nature reserves.

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“…Whilst they successfully colonized most of England and Wales, the rate of their spread being in a good agreement with predictions of relevant mathematical models [4,29], they have largely failed to spill over to central and northern Scotland, and the landscape geometry -as given by large areas that are not accessible to squirrels such as swamps or high mountain ranges -is thought to be a reason for that [56]. As another example, it was found in a study on the invasion of nutria in Iran that about one third of the country could potentially be colonized [9]. In reality, however, having been introduced about one hundred years ago to the sub-Caspian region, this species remains confined to largely the same area.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 85%

Patterns of invasive species spread in a landscape with a complex geometry

Alharbi

Petrovskii

2018

Ecological Complexity

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Patterns and rates of invasive species spread have been a focus of attention for several decades. Majority of studies focused on the species proliferation in a relatively uniform "open space" thus leaving aside the effects of the landscape geometry as given by size and shape of inaccessible areas. In this paper, we address this issue by considering the spatiotemporal dynamics of an alien species in a domain where two large uniform habitats are connected by a narrow corridor. We consider the case where the species is originally introduced into one of the habitats but not to the other. The alien species is assumed to be affected by a predator, so that mathematically our system consists of two coupled diffusion-reaction equations. We show that the corridor tends to slow down the spread: it takes the alien population an extra time to penetrate through the corridor, and this delay time can be significant in the case of patchy spread. We also show that a sufficiently narrow corridor blocks the spread; simple analytical estimates for the critical width of the corridor are obtained. Finally, we show that the corridor can become a refuge for the alien population. If considered on a longer timescale that includes species adaptation and/or climate change, the corridor may then become a source of a secondary invasion.

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Modeling the spread of invasive nutrias (Myocastor coypus) over Iran

Cited by 19 publications

References 50 publications

The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

The potential current distribution of the coypu (Myocastor coypus) in Europe and climate change induced shifts in the near future

Climate change may threaten habitat suitability of threatened plant species within Chinese nature reserves

Patterns of invasive species spread in a landscape with a complex geometry

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