Modeling the spread of pests and forest fires to assess the quality of plant raw materials in the forestry complex

Abstract

The Krasnoyarsk Territory and the Siberian region as a whole have the largest reserves of forest resources among the regions of Russia. However, the problem of rational and integrated use of forest resources is becoming more and more urgent. The presence of a large volume of unclaimed wood resources, including in the form of wood damaged by pests and forest fires, requires the development of methods that allow processing such wood using the optimal technology. Such research has been carried out by the scientific laboratory “Deep processing of vegetable raw materials” of the Reshetnev Siberian State University of Science and Technology. For information support of such studies, it is necessary to be able to assess the volume of damaged wood based on the forecast of the dynamics of processes affecting wood, taking into account external control influences. The aim of this work is to develop models and algorithms with which this forecast can be carried out. The article discusses the processes of the spread of pests and forest fires as objects of modeling, examples of such processes are considered. A method for describing the dynamics of distributed processes in the language of classical mechanics, as well as an agent-based simulation model of the dynamics and localization of the processes of the spread of insect pests and forest fires, is presented. The work of the model is based on GIS data and is reflected on a map of the real area. The model uses several types of agents that imitate both the process itself and the fight against it.