Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

Arfeuille, Florian; Luo, B. P.; Heckendorn, P.; Weisenstein, Debra K.; Sheng, Jianxiong; Rozanov, Eugene; Schraner, M.; Brönnimann, Stefan; Thomason, L. W.; Peter, Thomas

doi:10.5194/acp-13-11221-2013

Cited by 93 publications

(122 citation statements)

References 45 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

112

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…5), suggesting a larger proportion of aerosol is removed in the tropics in the 20 Tg run than in 10 Tg run (likely related to stronger sedimentation). As we also saw in the tropics, in the NH mid-latitudes, at (2006) and Arfeuille et al (2013), respectively, for various months before and after the eruption.…”

Section: Extinction Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 76%

“…We also compare to the SAGE-derived SAD product (Thomason et al, 1997) that is obtained from http://www.sparc-climate.org/ data-center/data-access/asap/. Simulated SAD is also compared against the recently available SAD data (Arfeuille et al, 2013) which was created using SAGE II V7.0 data, and is provided for the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI) simulations. Further evaluation of the post-Pinatubo simulated sAOD evolution was carried out by comparing to that measured by the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR/2), which was onboard on the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA/11) satellite.…”

Section: Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

et al. 2014

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We use a stratosphere-troposphere compositionclimate model with interactive sulfur chemistry and aerosol microphysics, to investigate the effect of the 1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption on stratospheric aerosol properties. Satellite measurements indicate that shortly after the eruption, between 14 and 23 Tg of SO 2 (7 to 11.5 Tg of sulfur) was present in the tropical stratosphere. Best estimates of the peak global stratospheric aerosol burden are in the range 19 to 26 Tg, or 3.7 to 6.7 Tg of sulfur assuming a composition of between 59 and 77 % H 2 SO 4 . In light of this large uncertainty range, we performed two main simulations with 10 and 20 Tg of SO 2 injected into the tropical lower stratosphere. Simulated stratospheric aerosol properties through the 1991 to 1995 period are compared against a range of available satellite and in situ measurements. Stratospheric aerosol optical depth (sAOD) and effective radius from both simulations show good qualitative agreement with the observations, with the timing of peak sAOD and decay timescale matching well with the observations in the tropics and mid-latitudes. However, injecting 20 Tg gives a factor of 2 too high stratospheric aerosol mass burden compared to the satellite data, with consequent strong high biases in simulated sAOD and surface area density, with the 10 Tg injection in much better agreement. Our model cannot explain the large fraction of the injected sulfur that the satellite-derived SO 2 and aerosol burdens indicate was removed within the first few months after the eruption. We suggest that either there is an additional alternative loss pathway for the SO 2 not included in our model (e.g. via accommodation into ash or ice in the volcanic cloud) or that a larger proportion of the injected sulfur was removed via cross-tropopause transport than in our simulations.We also critically evaluate the simulated evolution of the particle size distribution, comparing in detail to balloonborne optical particle counter (OPC) measurements from Laramie, Wyoming, USA (41 • N). Overall, the model captures remarkably well the complex variations in particle concentration profiles across the different OPC size channels. However, for the 19 to 27 km injection height-range used here, both runs have a modest high bias in the lowermost stratosphere for the finest particles (radii less than 250 nm), and the decay timescale is longer in the model for these particles, with a much later return to background conditions. Also, Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. S. S. Dhomse et al.: Simulation of Pinatubo aerosol in a CCMwhereas the 10 Tg run compared best to the satellite measurements, a significant low bias is apparent in the coarser size channels in the volcanically perturbed lower stratosphere. Overall, our results suggest that, with appropriate calibration, aerosol microphysics models are capable of capturing the observed variation in particle size distribution in the stratosphere across both volcanically perturbed and quiescen...

show abstract

Section: Extinction Comparisonmentioning

confidence: 76%

Section: Measurementsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

et al. 2014

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…An excessive volcanic warming could have possibly contributed to the aliasing of the apparent solar signal. However, it must also be noted that the oversized heating could be due to errors in the SAD aerosol forcing data set recommended by CCMVal (Arfeuille et al, 2013). As such, this is a common bias in many community climate models (see, for example, Fig 8.21 in CCMVal-2, 2010).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

et al. 2014

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. We investigate the relative role of volcanic eruptions, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), and the quasibiennial oscillation (QBO) in the quasi-decadal signal in the tropical stratosphere with regard to temperature and ozone commonly attributed to the 11 yr solar cycle. For this purpose, we perform transient simulations with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model forced from 1960 to 2004 with an 11 yr solar cycle in irradiance and different combinations of other forcings. An improved multiple linear regression technique is used to diagnose the 11 yr solar signal in the simulations. One set of simulations includes all observed forcings, and is thereby aimed at closely reproducing observations. Three idealized sets exclude ENSO variability, volcanic aerosol forcing, and QBO in tropical stratospheric winds, respectively. Differences in the derived solar response in the tropical stratosphere in the four sets quantify the impact of ENSO, volcanic events and the QBO in attributing quasi-decadal changes to the solar cycle in the model simulations. The novel regression approach shows that most of the apparent solar-induced lower-stratospheric temperature and ozone increase diagnosed in the simulations with all observed forcings is due to two major volcanic eruptions (i.e., El Chichón in 1982 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991). This is caused by the alignment of these eruptions with periods of high solar activity. While it is feasible to detect a robust solar signal in the middle and upper tropical stratosphere, this is not the case in the tropical lower stratosphere, at least in a 45 yr simulation. The present results suggest that in the tropical lower stratosphere, the portion of decadal variability that can be unambiguously linked to the solar cycle may be smaller than previously thought.

show abstract

“…In run A_NRL the model used solar fluxes from the NRL-SSI model and aerosol surface area density data from Arfeuille et al [2013]. As NRL fluxes are only available until 2011, we extended them until 2013 by regressing them on the F 10.7 cm flux for each spectral bin.…”

Section: Model Simulationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the ambiguous nature of the 11 year solar cycle signal in upper stratospheric ozone

Dhomse

Chipperfield

Damadeo

et al. 2016

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Up to now our understanding of the 11 year ozone solar cycle signal (SCS) in the upper stratosphere has been largely based on the Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE) II (v6.2) data record, which indicated a large positive signal which could not be reproduced by models, calling into question our understanding of the chemistry of the upper stratosphere. Here we present an analysis of new v7.0 SAGE II data which shows a smaller upper stratosphere ozone SCS, due to a more realistic ozone‐temperature anticorrelation. New simulations from a state‐of‐art 3‐D chemical transport model show a small SCS in the upper stratosphere, which is in agreement with SAGE v7.0 data and the shorter Halogen Occultation Experiment and Microwave Limb Sounder records. However, despite these improvements in the SAGE II data, there are still large uncertainties in current observational and meteorological reanalysis data sets, so accurate quantification of the influence of solar flux variability on the climate system remains an open scientific question.

show abstract

Modeling the stratospheric warming following the Mt. Pinatubo eruption: uncertainties in aerosol extinctions

Cited by 93 publications

References 45 publications

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

Aerosol microphysics simulations of the Mt.~Pinatubo eruption with the UM-UKCA composition-climate model

On the detection of the solar signal in the tropical stratosphere

On the ambiguous nature of the 11 year solar cycle signal in upper stratospheric ozone

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About