Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea

Abstract

The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R 0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β 1 and γ have strong correlations with R 0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.

Estimating and modelling the transmissibility of Middle East Respiratory Syndrome CoronaVirus during the 2015 outbreak in the Republic of Korea

“…For the model that assumes only contact rate varies with the breaking point, the estimates of R 0 are: 6.07 [4.20, 8.70] (5.36 [3.76, 7.60]) (see Tables C2 and C3 in Appendix ). These estimates are compatible with the previous studies . Although all used cumulative data while we use daily incidence data, the similar estimates were obtained.…”

“…These estimates are compatible with the previous studies . Although all used cumulative data while we use daily incidence data, the similar estimates were obtained. This implies the limited influence of using different data set on the results.…”

“…These estimates well overlap with the statistical estimates. Although being significantly higher than the estimates based on the previous small outbreaks, our estimates are compatible with others on the ROK outbreak and also the estimate on the 2014 outbreak in the KSA . In view of these analyses, R 0 of MERS‐CoV before the effective intervention can be much higher than the threshold level in the healthcare‐associated environment.…”

“…Once confirmed, the cases would be put under security and isolation in designated facilities. The ROK outbreak data show that no infection was caused by confirmed cases so we assume confirmed infections do not contribute to the transmission process . Confirmed cases either recover or die.…”

“…Hsieh used a phenomenological model to obtain an estimate of R 0 ranging from 7.0 to 19.3. Xia et al . and Kim et al .…”