Modeling the Uncertainties of Solar System Ephemerides for Robust Gravitational-wave Searches with Pulsar-timing Arrays

Vallisneri, Michele; Taylor, Stephen R.; Simon, Joseph; Folkner, W. M.; Park, Ryan; Cutler, Curt; Ellis, Justin; Lazio, T. Joseph W.; Vigeland, Sarah J.; Aggarwal, K. K.; Arzoumanian, Zaven; Baker, P. T.; Brazier, A.; Brook, Paul R.; Burke-Spolaor, S.; Chatterjee, Shami; Cordes, J. M.; Cornish, N.; Crawford, F.; Cromartie, H. T.; Crowter, Kathryn; DeCesar, Megan E.; Demorest, Paul; Dolch, Timothy; Ferdman, R. D.; Ferrara, E. C.; Fonseca, Emmanuel; Garver-Daniels, Nathan; Gentile, Peter A.; Good, Deborah C.; Hazboun, Jeffrey S.; Holgado, A. M.; Huerta, E. A.; Islo, Kristina; Jennings, Ross J.; Jones, Glenn; Jones, Megan L.; Kaplan, D. L.; Kelley, Luke Zoltan; Key, J. S.; Lam, Michael T.; Levin, Lina; Lorimer, D. R.; Luo, Jing; Lynch, R.; Madison, D. R.; McLaughlin, M. A.; McWilliams, S. T.; Mingarelli, Chiara M. F.; Ng, Cherry; Nice, D. J.; Pennucci, T. T.; Pol, Nihan S.; Ransom, S. M.; Ray, Paul S.; Siemens, X.; Spiewak, R.; Stairs, I. H.; Stinebring, Daniel R.; Stovall, K.; Swiggum, Joseph K.; Haasteren, Rutger van; Witt, Caitlin A.; Zhu, Weiwei

doi:10.3847/1538-4357/ab7b67

Cited by 78 publications

(45 citation statements)

References 34 publications

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“…We do not confirm or rule out that the common-spectrum process is a spatially-correlated stochastic gravitational-wave signal. However, the identified process does not possess monopole or dipole correlations and is not caused by errors in masses and trajectories of Mars, Jupiter and Saturn, that would have resulted in deterministic timing residuals according to bayesephem models (Vallisneri et al 2020). Proposed follow-up work relates to (1) improving our understanding of the properties of the intrinsic timing noise in millisecond pulsars and (2) identifying the optimal model comparisons and methodologies that can deter-mine whether the noise detected corresponds to a "noise floor" and is identical in all pulsars.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the evidence for a common-spectrum process in the search for the nanohertz gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array

Goncharov,

Shannon,

Reardon

et al. 2021

Preprint

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A nanohertz-frequency stochastic gravitational wave background can potentially be detected through the precise timing of an array of millisecond pulsars. This background produces low-frequency noise in the pulse arrival times that would have a characteristic spectrum common to all pulsars and a welldefined spatial correlation. Recently the North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves collaboration (NANOGrav) found evidence for the common-spectrum component in their 12.5year data set. Here we report on a search for the background using the second data release of the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array. If we are forced to choose between the two NANOGrav models -one with a common-spectrum process and one without --we find strong support for the commonspectrum process. However, in this paper, we consider the possibility that the analysis suffers from model misspecification. In particular, we present simulated data sets that contain noise with distinctive spectra but show strong evidence for a common-spectrum process under the standard assumptions. The Parkes data show no significant evidence for, or against, the spatially correlated Hellings-Downs

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

On the evidence for a common-spectrum process in the search for the nanohertz gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array

Goncharov,

Shannon,

Reardon

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…The threshold for detection has to be large enough that it is robust to the modeling of uncertainties in the Solar System Ephemeris, BayesEphem (Vallisneri et al 2020). Long term, this will not be a problem for detection of the TT mode; the impact of BayesEphem has been shown to be minimal as the observation time increases (see Vallisneri et al 2020). This is likely true for the other modes, but the impact of BayesEphem on other polarization modes has not been fully explored to date.…”

Section: Searching For Non-einstenian Polarization Modesmentioning

confidence: 99%

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: Search for Non-Einsteinian Polarization Modes in theGravitational-Wave Background

Arzoumanian,

Baker,

Blumer

et al. 2021

Preprint

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We search NANOGrav's 12.5-year data set for evidence of a gravitational wave background (GWB) with all the spatial correlations allowed by general metric theories of gravity. We find no substantial evidence in favor of the existence of such correlations in our data. We find that scalar-transverse (ST) correlations yield signal-to-noise ratios and Bayes factors that are higher than quadrupolar (tensor transverse, TT) correlations. Specifically, we find ST correlations with a signal-to-noise ratio of 2.8 that are preferred over TT correlations (Hellings and Downs correlations) with Bayesian odds of about 20:1. However, the significance of ST correlations is reduced dramatically when we include modeling of the Solar System ephemeris systematics and/or remove pulsar J0030+0451 entirely from consideration. Even taking the nominal signal-to-noise ratios at face value, analyses of simulated data sets show that such values are not extremely unlikely to be observed in cases where only the usual TT modes are present in the GWB. In the absence of a detection of any polarization mode of gravity, we place upper limits on their amplitudes for a spectral index of γ = 5 and a reference frequency of f yr = 1yr −1 . Among the upper limits for eight general families of metric theories of gravity, we find the values of A 95%T T = (9.7 ± 0.4) × 10 −16 and A 95% ST = (1.4 ± 0.03) × 10 −15 for the family of metric spacetime theories that contain both TT and ST modes.

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“…Great progress has been made in developing new GW detection algorithms that properly account for a number of sources of noise in PTA data. As an example, planetary ephemerides have been found to be too inaccurate for PTA experiments, but a new software package can properly model these ephemeris errors while performing the GW searches 86,254 .…”

Section: Future Ptasmentioning

confidence: 99%

Gravitational-wave physics and astronomy in the 2020s and 2030s

et al. 2021

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The past five years have witnessed a revolution in astronomy. The direct detection of gravitational waves (GW) emitted from the binary black hole (BBH) merger GW150914 (Fig. 1) by the Advanced Laser Interferometer Gravitational-Wave Observatory (LIGO) detector 1 on September 14, 2015 (reF. 2 ) was a watershed event, not only in demonstrating that GWs could be directly detected but more fundamentally in revealing new insights into these exotic objects and the Universe itself. On August 17, 2017, the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo 3 detectors jointly detected GW170817, the merger of a binary neutron star (BNS) system 4 , an equally momentous event leading to the observation of electromagnetic (EM) radiation emitted across the entire spectrum through one of the most intense astronomical observing campaigns ever undertaken 5 .Coming nearly 100 years after Albert Einstein first predicted their existence 6 , but doubted that they could ever be measured, the first direct GW detections have undoubtedly opened a new window on the Universe. The scientific insights emerging from these detections have already revolutionized multiple domains of physics and astrophysics, yet, they are 'the tip of the iceberg' , representing only a small fraction of the future potential of GW astronomy. As is the case for the Universe seen through EM waves, different classes of astrophysical sources emit GWs across a broad spectrum ranging over more than 20 orders of magnitude, and require different detectors for the range of frequencies of interest (Fig. 2).In this Roadmap, we present the perspectives of the Gravitational Wave International Committee (GWIC, https://gwic.ligo.org) on the emerging field of GW astronomy and physics in the coming decades. The GWIC was formed in 1997 to facilitate international collaboration and cooperation in the construction, operation and use of the major GW detection facilities worldwide. Its primary goals are: to promote international cooperation in all phases of construction and scientific exploitation of GW detectors, to coordinate and support long-range planning for new instruments or existing instrument upgrades, and to promote the development of GW detection as an astronomical tool, exploiting especially the potential for multi-messenger astrophysics. Our intention in this Roadmap is to present a survey of the science opportunities and to highlight the future detectors that will be needed to realize those opportunities. The recent remarkable discoveries in GW astronomy have spurred the GWIC to re-examine and update the GWIC roadmap originally published a decade ago 7 .We first present an overview of GWs, the methods used to detect them and some scientific highlights from the past five years. Next, we provide a detailed survey

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Modeling the Uncertainties of Solar System Ephemerides for Robust Gravitational-wave Searches with Pulsar-timing Arrays

Cited by 78 publications

References 34 publications

On the evidence for a common-spectrum process in the search for the nanohertz gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array

On the evidence for a common-spectrum process in the search for the nanohertz gravitational-wave background with the Parkes Pulsar Timing Array

The NANOGrav 12.5-year data set: Search for Non-Einsteinian Polarization Modes in theGravitational-Wave Background

Gravitational-wave physics and astronomy in the 2020s and 2030s

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