Modeling urban distributions of host trees for invasive forest insects in the eastern and central USA: A three-step approach using field inventory data

Koch, Frank; Ambrose, Mark J.; Yemshanov, Denys; Wiseman, P. Eric; Cowett, F.D.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2018.03.004

Cited by 17 publications

(15 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…While previous analyses have indicated that urban trees are associated with the largest share of economic damages due to IAFIs [1,13,14], until recently, data did not exist on the urban distribution of host trees [15], the spread of IAFIs [8], nor the mortality risk for hosts due to different IAFIs [16]. With these new models, it is now possible to forecast where and when IAFIs will have the most damages across the US.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Hudgins

Koch

Ambrose

et al. 2021

Preprint

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With 70% of the global population in urban centers, the ‘greening’ of cities is central to future urban wellbeing and livability. Urban trees can be nature-based solutions for mental and physical health, climate control, flood prevention and carbon sequestration. These ecosystem services may be severely curtailed by insect pests, which pose high mortality risks to trees in urban centers. Until now, the magnitudes and spatial distributions of mortality risks were unknown. Here, we combine new models of street tree populations in ∼30,000 United States (US) communities, species-specific spread predictions for 57 invasive insect species, and estimates of tree death due to insect exposure for 48 host tree genera. We estimate that an additional 1.4 million street trees will be killed by insects from 2020 through 2050, costing an annualized average of US$ 30M. However, these estimates hide substantial variation: 23% of urban centers will experience 95% of all insect-induced mortality, and 90% of all mortality will be due to emerald ash borer (Agrilus planipennis, EAB). We define an EAB high-impact zone spanning 902,500km2, largely within the Midwest and Northeast, within which we predict the death of 98.8% of all ash trees. “Mortality hotspot cities” facing costs of up to US$ 13.0 million each include Milwaukee, WI, Chicago, IL, and New York, NY. We identify Asian wood borers of maple and oak trees as posing the highest future risk to US urban trees, where a new establishment could cost US$ 4.9B over the same time frame.Significance StatementUS urbanization levels are already at 82% and are growing, making losses of ecosystem services due to urban tree mortality a matter of concern for the majority of its population. To plan effective mitigation, managers need to know which tree species in which parts of the country will be at greatest risk, as well as the highest-risk insects. We provide the first country-wide, spatial forecast of urban tree mortality due to invasive insect pests, including forecasts for each host tree and each insect species in each US community. This framework identifies dominant pest insects and spatial hotspots of high impact. Further, these findings produce a list of biotic and spatiotemporal risk factors for future high-impact US urban forest insect pests.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Hudgins

Koch

Ambrose

et al. 2021

Preprint

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“…For example, ash in Boulder County, CO only exists in urban plantings. Urban forest data are becoming more available (Koch, Ambrose, Yemshanov, Wiseman, & Cowett, 2018), and future forecasts of EAB dynamics and other pests will likely be improved by their consideration. We note, however, that proximity to invaded areas is the main driver of this invasion (Table 1), and thus, despite the absence of rural ash, some counties in Colorado are at relatively high risk (Figure 5).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Temporal dynamics and drivers of landscape‐level spread by emerald ash borer

Ward

Fei

Liebhold

2020

Journal of Applied Ecology

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Non‐native insects pose threats to forest health and often spread via stratified dispersal in which long‐distance jumps cause elevated rates of range expansion. Quantifying patterns and developing models of spread are central to understanding drivers of invasion and forecasting future invasions. We investigated the utility of models for characterizing and predicting spread of emerald ash borer (EAB), quantified temporal dynamics of spread and identified correlates of county‐level invasion risk. We estimated rates and frequency of EAB spread and length of long‐distance jumps throughout the contiguous USA from 1997 to 2018 and compared observed patterns with model predictions. A time‐to‐event model was then developed at the county level to assess the influence of habitat characteristics and propagule pressure on invasion risk. The final model was used to forecast invasion risk across the contiguous USA. Range expansion by EAB accorded well with model predictions. Following the initial establishment phase, range expansion rates were biphasic, shifting to a faster, linear pattern around 2002 and then declining from 2015 onwards. From 2003 onwards, EAB invaded 6–134 new counties per year, including a mean of 14 discrete jumps per year averaging 93 ± 7 SE km. Risk of spread was positively associated with proximity to previously invaded areas, human population density and densities of ash and non‐ash trees in rural forests but negatively associated with temperature. Synthesis and applications. At the regional level, the invasion by emerald ash borer appears to be entering the saturation phase, indicating that most high‐risk counties in the eastern USA have been invaded. Even though spread has recently slowed, counties in close proximity to invaded areas and that have high densities of humans and trees are at the greatest risk of becoming invaded. Taken together, our findings provide insight into historical and future dynamics of range expansion by emerald ash borer, which can be used to guide risk assessments for potential invaders capable of frequent long‐distance dispersal.

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“…Paul over the same timeframe. We divided the area into a grid of 1 × 1 km sites, and estimated the proportion of infested ash trees in each site based on municipal tree inventories (City of Minnepolis, 2017; Koch, Ambrose, Yemshanov, Wiseman, & Cowett, 2018; TreeKeeper, 2018) and documented EAB detection rates (Fahrner et al., 2017; Venette, 2019) from the Minneapolis–St. Paul region.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

Yemshanov

Haight

MacQuarrie

et al. 2020

Ecol Sol and Evidence

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1. Multi-day survey campaigns are critical for timely detection of biological invasions. We propose a new modelling approach that helps allocate survey inspections in a multi-day campaign aimed at detecting the presence of an invasive organism. 2. We adopt a team orienteering problem to plan daily inspections and use an acceptance sampling approach to find an optimal surveillance strategy for emerald ash borer in Winnipeg, Manitoba, Canada. The manager's problem is to select daily routes and determine the optimal number of host trees to inspect with a particular inspection method in each survey location, subject to upper bounds on the survey budget, daily inspection time, and total survey time span. 3. We compare optimal survey strategies computed with two different management objectives. The first problem minimizes the expected number of survey sites (or area) with undetected infestations. The second problem minimizes slippage-the expected number of undetected infested trees in sites that were not surveyed or where the surveys did not find infestation. 4. We also explore the impact of uncertainty about site infestation rates and detection probabilities on the surveillance strategy. Accounting for uncertainty helps address temporal and spatial variation in infestation rates and yields a more robust surveillance strategy. The approach is generalizable and can support delimiting survey programs for biological invasions at various spatial scales. K E Y W O R D S biological invasions, emerald ash borer, multi-day survey campaigns, optimal routing, optimization, pest detection, surveys and sampling 1 INTRODUCTION Delimiting surveys are among the most common tools used to monitor biological invasions, but they require costly and coordinated efforts over extended periods of time (

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Modeling urban distributions of host trees for invasive forest insects in the eastern and central USA: A three-step approach using field inventory data

Cited by 17 publications

References 78 publications

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Hotspots of pest-induced US urban tree death, 2020-2050

Temporal dynamics and drivers of landscape‐level spread by emerald ash borer

Optimal planning of multi‐day invasive species surveillance campaigns

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