Modeling Urban Encroachment on the Agricultural Land of the Eastern Nile Delta Using Remote Sensing and a GIS-Based Markov Chain Model

Abstract

Historically, the Nile Delta has played an integral part in Egyptian civilization, as its fertile soils have been cultivated for centuries. The region offers a lush oasis among the expansive arid climate of Northern Africa; however, in recent decades, many anthropogenic changes to the environment have jeopardized Egypt’s agricultural productivity. Political instability and lack of sufficient regulations regarding urban growth and encroachment have put agricultural land in the area at risk. Advanced geospatial techniques were used to assess the rate at which urban areas are increasing within the region. A hybrid classification of Landsat satellite imagery for the eastern sector of the Nile Delta, between the years 1988 and 2017, was conducted to map major land-use and land-cover (LULC) classes. The statistical change analysis revealed that urban areas increased by 222.5% over the study period (29 years). Results indicated that urban areas are encroaching mainly on established agricultural lands within the Nile Delta. Most of the change has occurred within the past nine years, where approximately 235.60 km2 of the cultivated lands were transitioned to urban. Nonetheless, at the eastern delta flank, which is bordered by desert, analysis indicated that agricultural lands have experienced a considerable growth throughout the study period due to a major desert reclamation effort. Areas most at risk from future urban expansion were identified. A simulation of future urban expansion, using a Markov Chain algorithm, indicated that the extent to which urban area is simulated to grow in the region is 16.67% (277.3 km2) and 37.82% (843 km2) by the year 2026, and 2050, respectively. The methods used in this study are useful in assessing the rate of urban encroachment on agricultural lands and can be applied to similar at-risk areas in the regions if appropriate site-specific modifications are considered.

Evaluating the Effects of Human Activity over the Last Decades on the Soil Organic Carbon Pool Using Satellite Imagery and GIS Techniques in the Nile Delta Area, Egypt

“…Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of NDVI values in 2018 reveal a distinct increase of the NDVI values in several locations of the study area as a result of human activities during the previous 23 years. The results showed an increase in the agricultural activity in the study area, especially in the new reclamation sites located east and west of the Suez Canal [47]. Therefore, the NDVI values have increased in those areas reaching levels higher to be more than 0.5.…”

Trade-Offs between Economic Benefits and Ecosystem Services Value under Three Cropland Protection Scenarios for Wuhan City in China

“…On the one hand, urbanization processes in many developing countries have been generally associated with rapid economic growth and an agglomeration of secondary and tertiary industries in urban areas and an increase in the proportion of urban populations due to rural outmigration [9]. On the other hand, urbanization affects the condition of the environment and adds pressures on the functionality and capacity of ecosystems to provide goods and services through processes of land use/land cover changes (LULC), and by adversely affecting natural habitat, biodiversity and contributing to climate change [10,11].…”

Monitoring Agricultural Expansion in a Newly Reclaimed Area in the Western Nile Delta of Egypt Using Landsat Imageries

“…During the past four decades, the Egyptian government adopted policies to cope with the growing demand for food and to ensure self-sufficiency from food production, i.e., agriculture land expansion and maximization of existing crops' yields. Consequently, several initiatives have been executed to reclaim New Lands in the desert, these governmental efforts led to the conversion of more than 12,000 km 2 from barren land to agricultural land (New Lands) [4,5,8].…”

“…Due to the River Nile deposits and the highly productive nature of the soil, these areas have been traditionally cultivated with strategic cereal crops, such as rice, wheat and maize, preserving food security for the Egyptian people. During the past four decades, these areas have been encroached by dramatic urban sprawl due to the rapid population growth and economic development [4,5,8]. Therefore, there has been a pressing need for the government to find alternative solutions to maintain the sustainability of the national agricultural sector.…”

“…Consequently, the adopted policies by the government to reclaim new lands in the desert have led to the second category (New Lands). These are barren areas located in the Western and Eastern deserts outside the green zone of the Nile Delta [3,8]. The New Lands process includes accessibility through constructing roads, houses, installing irrigation and drainage systems and providing reliable sources of water and electricity [11,12].…”