Modeling Vaccination Programs in Outbreaks of Hemorrhagic Septicemia in India

Deepak, Desh

doi:10.30954/2277-940x.01.2020.2

Cited by 3 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 8 publications

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“…HS is a fatal septicaemic disease in cattle and buffalo. We assume DD transmission based on a previous HS modelling study [33]. We used an SIRS model and excluded an E class as the disease can show acute clinical signs with a short incubation period of approximately 18-20 h [64] and animals become I at the transmission rate (β).…”

Section: Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (Pasteurella Multocida)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics

Horpiencharoen,

Marshall,

Muylaert

et al. 2024

J. R. Soc. Interface.

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The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics over 100 years for 100 times in a model gaur ( Bos gaurus ) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, haemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228% over 100 years. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (−97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 200%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These results may help disease management and surveillance strategies support wildlife conservation.

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Section: Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (Pasteurella Multocida)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics

Horpiencharoen,

Marshall,

Muylaert

et al. 2024

J. R. Soc. Interface.

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…HS is a fatal septicaemic disease in cattle and buffalo. We assume DD transmission based on a previous HS modelling study (36). We used an SIRS model and excluded an E class as the disease can show acute clinical signs with a short incubation period of ∼ 18-20 hours (37) animals become I at the transmission rate (β).…”

Section: Haemorrhagic Septicaemia (Hs -Pasteurella Multocida)mentioning

confidence: 99%

Impact of Infectious Diseases on Wild Bovidae Populations in Thailand: Insights from Population Modelling and Disease Dynamics

Horpiencharoen,

Marshall,

Muylaert

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The wildlife and livestock interface is vital for wildlife conservation and habitat management. Infectious diseases maintained by domestic species may impact threatened species such as Asian bovids, as they share natural resources and habitats. To predict the population impact of infectious diseases with different traits, we used stochastic mathematical models to simulate the population dynamics 100 times over 100 years for a model Gaur (Bos gaurus) population with and without disease. We simulated repeated introductions from a reservoir, such as domestic cattle. We selected six bovine infectious diseases; anthrax, bovine tuberculosis, hemorrhagic septicaemia, lumpy skin disease, foot and mouth disease and brucellosis, all of which have caused outbreaks in wildlife populations. From a starting population of 300, the disease-free population increased by an average of 228%. Brucellosis with frequency-dependent transmission showed the highest average population declines (-97%), with population extinction occurring 16% of the time. Foot and mouth disease with frequency-dependent transmission showed the lowest impact, with an average population increase of 225%. Overall, acute infections with very high or low fatality had the lowest impact, whereas chronic infections produced the greatest population decline. These models can help in disease management and surveillance strategies to support wildlife conservation.

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Spatial risk of disease transmission between wild bovids and livestock in Thailand

Horpiencharoen,

Marshall,

Muylaert

et al. 2024

Preprint

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The livestock-wildlife interface is one of the most essential issues threatening wildlife conservation and public health. Identifying interface areas can help to prioritise disease surveillance and implement mitigation measures and control programs for targeting threatened wildlife. We predicted interface areas which were assumed to be areas at risk of infectious disease transmission based on the spatial overlap between three Thai wild bovids (including gaur, banteng and wild water buffalo) habitat suitability and domestic cattle. We assumed that domestic cattle are the reservoir of bovine infectious disease, and that high cattle density is a proxy for a higher risk of disease transmission. Our study indicated that the highest risk areas for the native species are at the forest edges where overlap exists between high habitat suitability and high cattle density. Wild water buffalo showed the largest proportion of high-risk areas (8%), while gaur and banteng showed similar risk areas (4%) in Thailand. The largest proportion of risk areas overlapping with protected areas was Namtok Sam Lan PAs at 89% for gaur, 84% for banteng and 65% for wild water buffalo. Kuiburi NP has the largest risk area around 274 km2 (around 28% of the total protected area) for gaur and banteng, whereas wild water buffalo has the largest risk area overlapping with Huai Thabthan-Had Samran around 126 km2 (10% of the PA). Kaengkrachan Forest Complex showed the second largest risk area from 249 km2 for gaur and 273 km2 for banteng (8-9% of the PA). Our results address how habitat suitability might be helpful for infectious disease prevention and control strategies focused on native fauna and One Health. Furthermore, this work may also support the wild bovid habitat conservation initiatives and land use planning by informing decision-making about balancing wildlife habitats and livestock farming.

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Modeling Vaccination Programs in Outbreaks of Hemorrhagic Septicemia in India

Cited by 3 publications

References 8 publications

Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics

Impact of infectious diseases on wild bovidae populations in Thailand: insights from population modelling and disease dynamics

Impact of Infectious Diseases on Wild Bovidae Populations in Thailand: Insights from Population Modelling and Disease Dynamics

Spatial risk of disease transmission between wild bovids and livestock in Thailand

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