Modeling vulnerability of protected areas to invasion by chromolaena odorata under current and future climates

Abstract

Invasive plant species and climate change are among the biggest threats to the ecological integrity of many ecosystems, including those of protected areas. Effective management of invasive plants requires information regarding their spatial distributions. Using maximum entropy, we modeled habitat suitability for an invasive plant species Chromolaena odorata under current and future climatic conditions (HadGEM2-ES and MIROC5) in protected areas of four West African countries (Benin, Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Togo). Under current climatic conditions, approximately 73% of total land area within the protected areas was suitable for colonization by C. odorata. Under future climate projections, the total area of suitable habitats for this invasive plant was projected to decrease by 7-9% (HadGEM2-ES) and 12-14% (MIROC5). Countryspecific patterns suggest that major protected areas in Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana will be more vulnerable to invasion by C. odorata than those in Benin and Togo under both current and future climatic scenarios. To maintain normal ecosystem functioning and provisioning of ecosystem services within the protected areas studied here, locations that have been identified as most vulnerable to invasion by C. odorata should be accorded proportionately higher priority when formulating appropriate management strategies.

Invasion effects of Chromolaena odorata on soil carbon and nitrogen fractions in a tropical savanna

“…, Fandohan et al. ). The ecological effects of C. odorata establishment on soil nutrient levels have been reported in several studies conducted in Africa (e.g., Kanmegne et al.…”

“…A previous modeling study suggested that humid climates are preferable for the establishment and growth of C. odorata and that broad tropical humid regions, particularly those with latitudes lower than 9°30′ to 10° N, are projected to be suitable habitats for C. odorata under future climate conditions (Fandohan et al. ). While Mediterranean, semi‐arid, and temperate climates are considered safe from invasion (Kriticos et al.…”

“…), additional empirical studies of other regions of high invasion risk that have received little attention (Fandohan et al. , te Beest et al. ) are needed because invasion effects likely depend on context (Hulme et al.…”

“…Chromolaena odorata (King & Robinson) is a perennial and semi-woody species in the Asteraceae family and is a native shrub in Neotropical areas that has invaded extensive regions impacted by human activities, for example, India, southern China, Australia, and the tropical regions in Africa (McFadyen and Skarratt 1996). A previous modeling study suggested that humid climates are preferable for the establishment and growth of C. odorata and that broad tropical humid regions, particularly those with latitudes lower than 9°30 0 to 10°N, are projected to be suitable habitats for C. odorata under future climate conditions (Fandohan et al 2015). While Mediterranean, semi-arid, and temperate climates are considered safe from invasion (Kriticos et al 2005), both the climate-matching program CLI-MEX and species distribution models, such as the genetic algorithm for rule-set production, suggest that Central and South Africa, northern New Zealand and Australia, and most Pacific islands are areas of high invasion risk Skarratt 1996, Raimundo et al 2007).…”

How far can climate changes help to conserve and restore Garcinia kola Heckel, an extinct species in the wild in Benin (West Africa)

“…The "10 percentile training presence" corresponds to the logistic probability above which, when sampled to grid values, the 10% least suitable presence points cannot fall. This threshold classified fairly the continuous maps for our studied species, and it also was used by Fandohan et al (2015). The model used for the classification was the average of the ones that came from the bootstrapping sampling with 10 replications.…”