Modeling waning and boosting of COVID-19 in Canada with vaccination

Childs, Lauren M.; Dick, David W; Feng, Zhilan; Heffernan, Jane M.; Li, Jing; Röst, Gergely

doi:10.1016/j.epidem.2022.100583

Cited by 35 publications

(34 citation statements)

References 36 publications

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“…A discrete-time model with vaccination was developed based on SEIR framework [17][18][19][20][21][22]. The model assumed that the whole population was initially susceptible (S group) and there would be partial population from S group received the first dose of vaccine every day.…”

Section: Discrete-time Simulation With Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccine waning and immune escape drive the second surge of Omicron spread in Hong Kong: A modeling study

ZOU

Ming

et al. 2023

Preprint

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The Omicron subvariant BA.2 caused the start of the fifth epidemic wave in Hong Kong in early 2022, leading to a significant outbreak and triggering more people get immunized in a population with relatively low vaccine coverage. About half a year later, a second outbreak, largely dominated by BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants, began to spread, which peaked within few months. How the waning of the vaccine protection and the immune escape properties together with other factors, including social distancing and outdoor temperature, drove the second surge of infections is unknown. The challenge is that basic epidemic modeling is not able to capture longitudinal change in vaccine waning and dose interval. We developed mathematical equations to formulate continuous change of vaccine waning after observing empirical serological data and incorporate them into a multi-strain discrete-time SEIR (Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed) model. Using the reported cases during the first outbreak as the training set together with daily vaccination rates, population mobility and temperature, the model successfully predicted the second surge and the replacement by BA.4/5, leading to a cumulative number of cases about 543,600 (7.27% of total population). If vaccine protection maintained without decreasing, the number of predicted cumulative cases reduced 35%. If perfect vaccine coverage reached (100%) by 1st June, the number of cases was only partially reduced 18.65%. Moderate level of social distancing (10% reduction in population mobility) reduced only 13.78% cases, which was not able to prevent the second surge. The results suggest future local outbreaks will remain as long as new immune escape happens with waning immunity, even if the moderate level of social distancing is present. Therefore, a more accurate model forecasting considering waning immunity remains needed in order to allow a better preparation of the next outbreaks.

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Section: Discrete-time Simulation With Vaccinationmentioning

confidence: 99%

Vaccine waning and immune escape drive the second surge of Omicron spread in Hong Kong: A modeling study

ZOU

Ming

et al. 2023

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

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“…With the development of COVID-19 vaccines, policy makers started vaccination campaigns with the aim to protect individuals and relax NPIs. Vaccines became the most important 1 intervention for mitigating disease severity and spread, allowing the return of social and economic activities [4][5][6][7][8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic

Molla

Farhang‐Sardroodi

Moyles

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Disease spread can be affected by pharmaceutical (such as vaccination) and non-pharmaceutical interventions (such as physical distancing, mask-wearing, and contact tracing). Understanding the relationship between disease dynamics and human behavior is a significant factor to controlling infections. In this work, we propose a compartmental epidemiological model for studying how the infection dynamics of COVID-19 evolves for people with different levels of social distancing, natural immunity, and vaccine-induced immunity. Our model recreates the transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Ontario up to December 2021. Our results indicate that people change their behaviour based on the disease dynamics and mitigation measures. Specifically, they adapt more protective behaviour when the number of infections is high and social distancing measures are in effect, and they recommence their activities when vaccination coverage is high and relaxation measures are introduced. We demonstrate that waning of infection and vaccine-induced immunity are important for reproducing disease transmission in Fall 2021.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Mathematical models were also useful to give insights into the potential and optimization of testing strategies [7], including group testing [8]. The impact of vaccination and the waning and boosting of immunity have also been evaluated by models [9,10] With the emergence of new strains of the virus, researchers considered the spread of multiple lineages [11], the potential for new waves [12], and the adaptation of test and trace strategies [13].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Epidemic patterns of emerging variants with dynamical social distancing

Sayyar

Röst

2023

Preprint

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Motivated by the emergence of new variants during the COVID-19 pandemic, we consider an epidemiological model of disease transmission dynamics, where novel strains appear by mutations of the virus. In the considered scenarios, disease prevalence in the population is modulated by social distancing. We study the various patterns that are generated under different assumptions of cross-immunity. If recovery from a given strain provides immunity against all previous strains, but not against more novel strains, then we observe a very regular sequential pattern of strain replacement where newer strains predominate over older strains. However, if protection upon recovery holds only against that particular strain and none of the others, we find much more complicated dynamics with potential recurrence of earlier strains, and co-circulation of various strains. We compare the observed patterns with genomic analysis we have seen during the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Modeling waning and boosting of COVID-19 in Canada with vaccination

Cited by 35 publications

References 36 publications

Vaccine waning and immune escape drive the second surge of Omicron spread in Hong Kong: A modeling study

Vaccine waning and immune escape drive the second surge of Omicron spread in Hong Kong: A modeling study

Pharmaceutical and Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions for Controlling the COVID-19 Pandemic

Epidemic patterns of emerging variants with dynamical social distancing

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