Modeling wildfire risk to northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) habitat in Central Oregon, USA

Ager, Alan A.; Finney, Mark A.; Kerns, Becky K.; Maffei, Helen M.

doi:10.1016/j.foreco.2007.03.070

Cited by 173 publications

(178 citation statements)

References 35 publications

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“…We additionally assumed that thinning 22% of the landscape would lower the amount of high-severity fire in the unthinned landscape by half. This is based on the findings of Ager et al (2007) who simulated the effects of wildfire ignitions following strategic thinning treatments in a spotted owl landscape. When <22% of the landscape was affected at any given time (such as any time prior to year 20 when the full treatment would be incomplete, or after one-time treatments began to recover, or for scenarios with <22% of the landscape treated) the same ratio of area treated to reduction in high-severity fire (22% treat: 50% reduction in fire) was used to reduce the area burned at high severity (see Supplementary Material for an illustration).…”

Section: Quantifying Future Habitatmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Over the last decade, managers and policy makers have become increasingly concerned about high-severity fire and reduced timber harvesting in NWFP dry forests (e.g., Spies et al 2006, Power 2006, Thomas et al 2006, Ager et al 2007, USFWS 2011. Forest thinning has been viewed as a solution for controlling fires in dry forests throughout western North America Skinner 2005, Stephens andRuth 2005) and commercial criteria have been included to pursue timber harvest goals Franklin 2009, Franklin andJohnson 2012).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Previous assessments of the efficacy of thinning treatments in reducing fire disturbances in spotted owl habitat (Wilson and Baker 1998, Lee and Irwin 2005, Roloff et al 2005, 2012, Ager et al 2007, Lehmkuhl et al 2007 have not incorporated the probability of high-severity fires occurring during the treatment lifespan. The effect of this is to overestimate treatment efficacy in potentially controlling fire or fire behavior (Rhodes and Baker 2008).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Nor have the effects of recruitment of dense, late-successional forest that act to offset loss from fire been included in prior assessments. In addition, impacts of the kind of commercial thinning treatments being implemented to address dry forest concerns have not been fully considered for the owl or its prey (e.g., Ager et al 2007, Lehmkuhl et al 2007, Roloff et al 2012. Current commercial thinning prescriptions being implemented in dry forests specifically identify desired future conditions to be maintained (e.g.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Conservation planning for spotted owls commonly occurs at the scale of these regions. For our thinning treatment, we chose a "best" scenario for minimizing the amount of dense, latesuccessional forest to be treated (Lehmkuhl et al 2007); while we used an optimistic scenario for treatment efficacy, assuming that a 50% reduction in high-severity fire would occur (Ager et al 2007). We also illustrate the effects of varying treatment amount and efficacy.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Effects of Fire and Commercial Thinning on Future Habitat of the Northern Spotted Owl

Odion¹,

Hanson²,

DellaSala³

et al. 2014

TOORTHJ

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Abstract:The Northern Spotted Owl (Strix occidentalis caurina) is an emblematic, threatened raptor associated with dense, late-successional forests in the Pacific Northwest, USA. Concerns over high-severity fire and reduced timber harvesting have led to programs to commercially thin forests, and this may occur within habitat designated as "critical" for spotted owls. However, thinning is only allowed under the U.S. Government spotted owl guidelines if the long-term benefits clearly outweigh adverse impacts. This possibility remains uncertain. Adverse impacts from commercial thinning may be caused by removal of key habitat elements and creation of forests that are more open than those likely to be occupied by spotted owls. Benefits of thinning may accrue through reduction in high-severity fire, yet whether the firereduction benefits accrue faster than the adverse impacts of reduced late-successional habitat from thinning remains an untested hypothesis. We found that rotations of severe fire (the time required for high-severity fire to burn an area equal to the area of interest once) in spotted owl habitat since 1996, the earliest date we could use, were 362 and 913 years for the two regions of interest: the Klamath and dry Cascades. Using empirical data, we calculated the future amount of spotted owl habitat that may be maintained with these rates of high-severity fire and ongoing forest regrowth rates with and without commercial thinning. Over 40 years, habitat loss would be far greater than with no thinning because, under a "best case" scenario, thinning reduced 3.4 and 6.0 times more dense, late-successional forest than it prevented from burning in high-severity fire in the Klamath and dry Cascades, respectively. Even if rates of fire increase substantially, the requirement that the long-term benefits of commercial thinning clearly outweigh adverse impacts is not attainable with commercial thinning in spotted owl habitat. It is also becoming increasingly recognized that exclusion of high-severity fire may not benefit spotted owls in areas where owls evolved with reoccurring fires in the landscape.

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Section: Quantifying Future Habitatmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 3 more Smart Citations

Effects of Fire and Commercial Thinning on Future Habitat of the Northern Spotted Owl

Odion¹,

Hanson²,

DellaSala³

et al. 2014

TOORTHJ

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Forest‐Fire Models

Preisler

Ager

2012

Encyclopedia of Environmetrics

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For applied mathematicians forest‐fire models refer mainly to a nonlinear dynamic system often used to simulate spread of fire. For forest managers forest‐fire models may pertain to any of the three phases of fire management: prefire planning (fire risk models), fire suppression (fire behavior models), and postfire evaluation (fire effects models). In this context forest‐fire models may be statistical, rule‐based, process‐based, or a combination of all three.

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