Modelización y análisis de escenarios de intervención en sistemas socio-naturales: El caso del sistema de sustentabilidad energía-territorio de la región de Coquimbo, Chile

Abstract

[Introducción]: Este articulo propone avances en la modelización y el análisis de los sistemas socio-naturales objeto de las políticas públicas en medio ambiente y desarrollo sustentable. [Objetivo]: Presentar una propuesta de modelización sistémica formal de sistemas socio-naturales en contextos de decisión estratégicos. [Metodología]: Basados en el lenguaje de los digrafos signados, presentamos un conjunto de elementos de sistemas socio-naturales modelizados, orientados al análisis prospectivo de la aplicación de diversos escenarios de intervención. Mostramos también un conjunto de nuevas métricas cuantitativas para evaluar el rol dinámico de las variables componentes del sistema socio-natural. Se toma como caso de estudio el sistema de sustentabilidad de energía en el territorio de la región de Coquimbo, Chile, y se evalúa comparativamente el desempeño esperado de medidas de gestión ambiental. [Resultados]: Los resultados de este estudio sugieren que las medidas de intervención/gestión planificadas en función de las nuevas métricas presentadas en este artículo, resultan eficaces de acuerdo con los escenarios proyectados por la modelización. [Conclusiones]: La modelización estructural cualitativa es adecuada para representar y analizar sistemas socio-naturales, lo que exhibe ventajas operativas para apoyar la toma de decisiones.

Carbon Footprint Estimation for La Serena-Coquimbo Conurbation Based on Global Protocol for Community-Scale Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories (GPC)

“…The electricity system of the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation is interconnected to the central supply system, despite the fact that electricity generation in the region has increased in recent years, particularly non-conventional renewable energy, only 17% of the demand is satisfied with regional resources [52]. Therefore, the degree of political action in the electricity system by local governments is very low.…”

“…Although the implementation of all measures has not been equally efficient [51], the increase in renewable generation has been significant in recent years, reaching 46.5% of renewable generation in 2020, with a major emphasis on photovoltaic and wind technologies, which together have increased from 0.5% in 2011 to 17% in 2020 [55]. Due to the excellent wind and radiation conditions in the territory, the Ministry of Energy has developed a regional energy plan [56] in order to increase the generation of energy based on non-conventional renewable energies, which would allow for the doubling of the regional installed capacity by 2030 [52], a situation that will contribute to the reduction of greenhouse gases considered within scope 2. One of the main challenges to be faced with the Chilean decentralization of power is the governance of public transportation in the conurbation [57].…”

“…Currently, the transportation system is guided by the economic interests of the service providers; therefore, the routes correspond to those urban areas that allow them to obtain the highest income, leaving the peripheral urban areas without an adequate service, promoting the use of the private car as the main mode of transportation [58]. The decentralization process is an opportunity to change the conception of the highly centralized governance system and adapt the public transportation system, generating a more efficient public transportation, with The electricity system of the La Serena-Coquimbo conurbation is interconnected to the central supply system, despite the fact that electricity generation in the region has increased in recent years, particularly non-conventional renewable energy, only 17% of the demand is satisfied with regional resources [52]. Therefore, the degree of political action in the electricity system by local governments is very low.…”

Influence of the Effective Reproduction Number on the SIR Model with a Dynamic Transmission Rate

“…It was important for models to be simple enough in technical terms to be understood and, simultaneously, to capture the structure of the relationships of the determinants and their connection with the variables of epidemiological interest. This strategic character [14], summarized in expressions such as "The simplest models can be of great benefit in predicting and monitoring epidemics, helping to understand the dynamics of the COVID-19 pandemic and contribute to decision-making" [15], or "Models should not be simpler than necessary, but also not more complex than needed", became necessary and valued [16][17][18].…”