Modelled distribution of an invasive alien plant species differs at different spatiotemporal scales under changing climate: a case study of Parthenium hysterophorus L.

Mushtaq, Shazia; Reshi, Zafar A.; Shah, Manzoor Ahmad; Charles, Bipin

doi:10.1007/s42965-020-00135-0

Cited by 18 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 89 publications

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“…To develop effective species recovery plans within their natural habitats, an important step involves modeling the present habitats and predicting the future range of species (Kumari et al, 2022). To ensure the conservation and sustainability of species habitats in the future, it is crucial to employ habitat distribution modeling, which enables us to assess dispersal range and the impact of climate change on future habitat suitability (Mushtaq et al, 2021;Zhong et al, 2021). This approach helps us understand the intricate relationship between species distribution range, extinction, and the critical determinants of geographical range area (Cardillo et al, 2008;Purvis et al, 2000).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble modeling of Rhododendron arboreum distribution in Nepal: Assessing current patterns and projecting future changes

Kafle,

Thapa,

Ghimire

et al. 2023

Species

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This research article presents a comprehensive analysis of the distribution patterns of Rhododendron arboreum in Nepal, encompassing the current distribution and future projections. We employed an ensemble approach by combining eight selected models with AUC > 0.8. Resulting ensemble model demonstrated remarkable predictive accuracy, achieving an AUC value of 0.97 and a TSS value of 0.77. Our analysis unveiled that within total land area of Nepal, approximately 115,317.1 km2 were deemed unsuitable for Rhododendron arboreum, while 32,198.89 km2 were identified as suitable habitats. Future projections for 2050 and 2070 under the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios showed significant changes in habitat suitability. By 2050, under SSP2-4.5, 10,710.39 km2 were projected to be lost, while 4,792.78 km2 were gained. Under SSP5-8.5, more significant loss of 14,237.64 km2 and a smaller gain of 5,696.41 km2 were anticipated. In 2070, further losses in suitable habitat were projected under both scenarios. A consistent upward movement in the suitable habitat elevation range was observed from the current period to the projected years of 2050 and 2070. These findings underscore the urgency of implementing proactive conservation measures to safeguard Rhododendron arboreum in the face of climate change. The research provides valuable insights for informing conservation strategies and emphasizes the ecological significance of this species in Nepal. Considering distribution patterns and elevation shifts, our study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of the species dynamics and supports effective conservation planning.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ensemble modeling of Rhododendron arboreum distribution in Nepal: Assessing current patterns and projecting future changes

Kafle,

Thapa,

Ghimire

et al. 2023

Species

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“…We achieved the analysis with the SDMtoolbox package in ArcGIS v. 10.8 (Brown et al, 2017 ). We implemented a Gaussian Kernel (Bosso et al, 2022 ; Mushtaq et al, 2021 ; Zhang et al, 2018 ) using QGIS software to avoid a sampling bias and help identify the highest potential suitability areas. With this, we selected the high suitable priority areas (hotspots) for conservation.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution

Ames-Martínez

Luna‐Vega

Dieringer

et al. 2022

Ecology and Evolution

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Fagus mexicana Martínez (Mexican beech) is an endangered Arcto‐Tertiary Geoflora tree species that inhabit isolated and fragmented tropical montane cloud forests in eastern Mexico. Exploring past, present, and future climate change effects on the distribution of Mexican beech involves the study of spatial ecology and temporal patterns to develop conservation plans. These are key to understanding the niche conservatism of other forest communities with similar environmental requirements. For this study, we used species distribution models by combining occurrence records, to assess the distribution patterns and changes of the past (Last Glacial Maximum), present (1981–2010), and future (2040–2070) periods under two climate scenarios (SSP 3‐7.0 & SSP 5‐8.5). Next, we determined the habitat suitability and priority conservation areas of Mexican beech as associated with topography, land cover use, distance to the nearest town, and environmental variables. By considering the distribution of Mexican beech during different periods and under different climate scenarios, our study estimated that high‐impact areas of Mexican beech forests were restricted to specific areas of the Sierra Madre Oriental that constitute refugia from the Last Glacial Maximum. Regrettably, our results exhibited that Mexican beech distribution has decreased 71.3% since the Last Glacial Maximum and this trend will for the next 50 years, migrating to specific refugia at higher altitudes. This suggests that the states of Hidalgo, Veracruz, and Puebla will preserve the habitat suitability features as ecological refugia, related to high moisture and north‐facing slopes. For isolated and difficult‐to‐access areas, the proposed methods are powerful tools for relict‐tree species, which deserve further conservation.

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“…Ambrosia trifida pollen is also a source of allergic reactions such as hay fever, allergic rhinitis and other diseases [20], and severe allergies can lead to concurrent emphysema, cor pulmonale and even death, which is a great threat to human health. Therefore, in various climate change scenarios, it is of particular importance to predict the future adaptive distribution of species on relevant spatiotemporal scales for the management of invasive alien species [21]. Based on the optimized MaxEnt niche model, the potential and future suitable distribution areas of A. trifida in Northeast China were forecasted using the distribution data of A. trifida in China, the environmental data of current and 2050, 2070 climate scenarios with different emission intensities (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Alien Invasive Plant Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under Various Climatic Scenarios

Chen,

Bai,

et al. 2024

Diversity

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Ambrosia trifida is an invasive alien plant species, which has very high reproductive and environmental adaptability. Through strong resource acquisition ability and allelopathy, it could inhibit the growth and reproduction of surrounding plants and destroy the stability of an invasive ecosystem. It is very important to predict the change of suitable distribution area of A. trifida with climate change before implementing scientific control measures. Based on 106 A. trifida distribution data and 14 points of environmental data, the optimal parameter combination (RM = 0.1, FC = LQ) was obtained using the MaxEnt (version 3.4.1) model optimized by Kuenm package, and thus the potential suitable areas of A. trifida in Northeast China under three different climate scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) with different emission intensities in the future (2050, 2070) were predicted. The changes of A. trifida suitable area in Northeast China under three climate scenarios were compared, and the relationship between the change of suitable area and emission intensity was analyzed. In general, the suitable area of A. trifida in Northeast China will expand gradually in the future, and the area of its highly suitable area will also increase with the increasing emission intensity, which is unfavorable to the control of A. trifida.

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Modelled distribution of an invasive alien plant species differs at different spatiotemporal scales under changing climate: a case study of Parthenium hysterophorus L.

Cited by 18 publications

References 89 publications

Ensemble modeling of Rhododendron arboreum distribution in Nepal: Assessing current patterns and projecting future changes

Ensemble modeling of Rhododendron arboreum distribution in Nepal: Assessing current patterns and projecting future changes

The effect of climate change on Arcto‐Tertiary Mexican beech forests: Exploring their past, present, and future distribution

Prediction of Suitable Habitat of Alien Invasive Plant Ambrosia trifida in Northeast China under Various Climatic Scenarios

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