Modelled impacts of badger culling on cattle TB in a real area with geographic boundaries

Fenwick, N. I. D.

doi:10.1136/vr.100051

Cited by 5 publications

(4 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(52 reference statements)

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“…Prior to the RBCT it was felt that the results from several badger removal operations in England and Ireland demonstrate the importance of establishing adequate experimental controls, as some other unidentified factor could have been responsible for changes in herd breakdown rates 37 . Equally, most key studies cited in government policy that are subsequent to the RBCT that commenced in 1998, are derivative of it and use the RBCT model from 2006 to achieve their results and interpretations (For example studies reported by Jenkins et al 24 , Bielby et al 25 , Vial & Donnelly 26 , Vial, et al 27 , Fenwick 28 , McCulloch et al 29 and Donnelly and Nouvellet 30 ).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

Torgerson,

Hartnack,

Rasmussen

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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Government policy in England aims for the elimination of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). This policy includes culling of European badger (Meles meles) to reduce cattle TB incidence. The rationale is based on a field trial, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) 1998–2005, which reported a substantial decrease in bTB herd incidence where badger culling had been implemented, in comparison to untreated control areas. The RBCT was undertaken because previous studies of reductions in badgers by culling, reported a possible association between bTB in badger and cattle, but none could directly show causation. The effect of intensive widespread (proactive) culling in the RBCT was reported in 2006 in the journal Nature. Analysis of an extensive badger removal programme in England since 2013 has raised concerns that culling has not reduced bTB herd incidence. The present study re-examined RBCT data using a range of statistical models. Most analytical options showed no evidence to support an effect of badger culling on bTB herd incidence ‘confirmed’ by visible lesions and/or bacterial culture post mortem following a comparative intradermal skin test (SICCT). However, the statistical model chosen by the RBCT study was one of the few models that showed an effect. Various criteria suggest that this was not an optimal model, compared to other analytical options available. The most likely explanation is that the RBCT proactive cull analysis over-fitted the data with a non-standard method to control for exposure giving it a poor predictive value. Fresh appraisal shows that there was insufficient evidence to conclude RBCT proactive badger culling affected bTB breakdown incidence. The RBCT found no evidence of an effect of culling on ‘total’ herd incidence rates. Total herd incidences include those confirmed as bTB at necropsy and those herds where there was at least one animal animal positive to the comparative intradermal skin test, the standard diagnostic test used for routine surveillance, but not confirmed at necropsy. This was also the case using the more suitable statistical models. Use only of ‘confirmed’ herd incidence data, together with a more recent (2013) published perception that RBCT data presented ‘a strong evidence base….with appropriate detailed statistical or other quantitative analysis’ should be reconsidered. The results of the present report are consistent with other analyses that were unable to detect any disease control benefits from badger culling in England (2013–2019). This study demonstrates one form of potential driver to the reproducibility crisis, in this case with disease control management in an increasingly intensified livestock industry.

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

Torgerson,

Hartnack,

Rasmussen

et al. 2024

Sci Rep

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“…Much subsequent investment in research has assumed that the coe cient value (ie -0.207) for the proactive culling parameter in the log linear Poisson model is a true re ection of the expected effect size for reduction in incidence in response to culling. There are many studies and reports which rely on this 19,[23][24][25][26][27][28][29] . The view that the RBCT analysis represented a 'strong evidence base involving experimental studies or eld data collection on bTB with appropriate detailed statistical or other quantitative analysis.'…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

Torgerson

Hartnack

Rasmussen

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Government policy in England aims for the elimination of bovine tuberculosis (bTB). This policy includes culling of European badger (Meles meles) to reduce cattle TB incidence. The rationale is based on the results of a field trial, the Randomised Badger Culling Trial (RBCT) 1998–2005, which reported a substantial decrease in bTB herd incidence where badger culling had been implemented, in comparison to untreated control areas. The results were reported in 2006 in the journal Nature. Recent analysis of proactive badger culling in England since 2013 has raised concerns that badger culling, based on RBCT methods, may not reduce bTB herd incidence. The present study re-examined data from the RBCT experiment using a range of statistical models. It concluded that most analytical options did not show any evidence to support an effect of badger culling on herd incidence of bTB ‘confirmed’ by visible lesions or bacterial culture post mortem. However, the statistical model selected and reported from the RBCT study was one of the few models that did show an effect. Various criteria suggest that this was not an optimal model compared to other analytical options then available. The most likely explanation is that the RBCT proactive cull analysis overfitted the data with a non standard method to control for exposure. This resulted in it having a poor predictive value. Fresh appraisals suggest that evidence from more suitable analysis of the original data show that badger culling does not bring about the reported effects. The RBCT found no evidence of an effect on ‘total’ (confirmed and unconfirmed) bTB herd incidence, which we have also found using the more suitable statistical models. The selective choice of use only of ‘confirmed’ incidence data, together with more recent (2013) published perception that RBCT data presented ‘a strong evidence base….with appropriate detailed statistical or other quantitative analysis’ should now be adjusted to conclude that this evidence base is weak or at least, equivocal. The results of the present report are consistent with findings that badger culling in England (2013–2019) shows no significant disease control benefit. The findings of this study help explain one form of driver to the reproducibility crisis, in this case with disease control management in an increasingly intensified livestock industry.

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“…Different aspects of the studies are often reported without reference to their wider context. Additionally, the original conclusions of the RBCT have been debated (see for example Fenwick ); this has found its way into the media, adding to the lack of a clear evidence base on which to frame disease control arguments.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The Framing of Public Knowledge Controversies in the Media: A Comparative Analysis of the Portrayal of Badger Vaccination in the English National, Regional and Farming Press

et al. 2015

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Science has a powerful role in society. It can fuel innovation, shape policy and influence public opinion. However, science can also be highly controversial and subject to substantial disagreement and debate. Such debates are often evident in the media which regularly reports on areas of disagreement and debate. This article draws on the case-study of bovine tuberculosis (bTB), which has become a highly politicised issue in recent years, to explore media representation of public knowledge controversies. The disease has received substantial policy and media attention, particularly in relation to badgers and their role in its spread. This article focuses on the ways in which the various debates associated with bTB and its control are presented in the press, with a specific emphasis on badger vaccination. An in-depth discourse analysis compares regional, national and farming press, and identifies a number of complex dualisms against which the debate is framed. These dualisms help to explain the unclear policy direction and constant divisions between those who do and do not support badger vaccination, and the continued status of bTB control as a public knowledge controversy.

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Modelled impacts of badger culling on cattle TB in a real area with geographic boundaries

Cited by 5 publications

References 21 publications

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

Absence of effects of widespread badger culling on tuberculosis in cattle

The Framing of Public Knowledge Controversies in the Media: A Comparative Analysis of the Portrayal of Badger Vaccination in the English National, Regional and Farming Press

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