This PhD thesis has been developed under a joint doctorate supervision agreement with the Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (SupAgro Montpellier, France).
December 2015
A celles qui sont parties, A ceux qui sont arrivés,A ceux qui ont été là.
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AcknowledgementsThe preparation of this thesis has taken me on a journey that has led me across geographical, disciplinary, linguistic and cultural boarders. Along the way, I have had the good fortune of being able to count on the support of many people, without whom this experience would not have been so fruitful.I am grateful to them all.In particular, I thank those who agreed to show me the route: my advisors, Manuel Augusto Pulido Velázquez and Jean-Daniel Rinaudo, for the trust they have placed in me from the outset of this PhD, and for their complementary support throughout these years. Their interest and dedication to our work gave me the opportunity to participate in stimulating scientific cooperation and inspiring discussions.Manuel, gracias por la acogida en tu grupo de investigación y por haberme introducido al mundo de los modelos hidro-económicos, de GAMS, y de las "catalinas con queso". Tu fe en este trabajo y tu experiencia han sido determinantes para llegar a este resultado.Jean-Daniel, merci pour avoir partagé ton expérience d'économiste ancré dans la réalité du terrain, et pour avoir pris le temps de trouver les mots et les moyens pour mener ce projet à son terme. Sans ta motivation et créativité, cette thèse ne serait pas ce qu'elle est. Y por supuesto, le doy las gracias a Mar, que es gracias a quien he empezado y sin quien no sé dónde habría acabado esta aventura. Hemos avanzado juntos por los valles y por las cumbres de este camino que ahora acabamos, pero seguiremos caminando, se hace camino al andar.Finally, thanks to those who will read this thesis, for their interest in the research.
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AbstractAdaptation to the multiple facets of global change challenges the conventional means of sustainably planning and managing water resources at the river basin scale. Numerous demand or supply management options are available, from which adaptation measures need to be selected in a context of high uncertainty of future conditions. Given the interdependency of water users, agreements need to be found at the local level to implement the most effective adaptation measures. Therefore, this thesis develops an approach combining economics and water resources engineering to select a cost-effective programme of adaptation measures in the context of climate change uncertainty, and to define an equitable allocation of the cost of the adaptation plan between the stakeholders involved.A framework is developed to integrate inputs from the two main approaches commonly used to plan for adaptation. The first, referred to as "top-down", consists of a modelling chain going from global greenhouse gases emission scenarios to local hydrological models used to assess the impact of climate change on water resources. Conversely, the second approac...