2023
DOI: 10.1136/bmjno-2023-000407
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Modelling accessibility of adult neurology care in Australia, 2020–2034

Abstract: IntroductionIn 2015/2016, annual national expenditure on neurological conditions exceeded $A3 billion. However, a comprehensive study of the Australian neurological workforce and supply/demand dynamics has not previously been undertaken.MethodsCurrent neurological workforce was defined using neurologist survey and other sources. Workforce supply modelling used ordinary differential equations to simulate neurologist influx and attrition. Demand for neurology care was estimated by reference to literature regardi… Show more

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“…This shortage is exacerbated by high rates of burnout among early career neurologists [14], increasing complexity of neurotherapeutics, and general and family physicians (practitioners) feeling less confident in managing neurological diseases. Ongoing (or expected) decrease in the neurological workforce including fewer general neurologists (GNs) in high‐income countries. Australia expects a significant shortfall of workforce relative to the projected demand between 2020 and 2034 [15]. In the USA, the number of American Academy of Neurology (AAN) members who self‐identify as GNs has fallen from 46% in 2014 to 28% in 2023 (Table 1).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…This shortage is exacerbated by high rates of burnout among early career neurologists [14], increasing complexity of neurotherapeutics, and general and family physicians (practitioners) feeling less confident in managing neurological diseases. Ongoing (or expected) decrease in the neurological workforce including fewer general neurologists (GNs) in high‐income countries. Australia expects a significant shortfall of workforce relative to the projected demand between 2020 and 2034 [15]. In the USA, the number of American Academy of Neurology (AAN) members who self‐identify as GNs has fallen from 46% in 2014 to 28% in 2023 (Table 1).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%
“…Australia is a large country with low population density in rural regions and long distances between comprehensive stroke centers, making timely access to acute stroke therapies across all locations challenging. Approximately 30% of the Australian population lives outside of metropolitan areas (AIHW, 2023), while only 4% of the neurology workforce provide services within these regions and this shortfall is predicted to persist into the future (Simpson-Yap et al, 2023). Compounding this issue, there is a 17% higher risk of stroke in regional and rural Australia (Stroke Foundation, 2020).…”
Section: Introductionmentioning
confidence: 99%